Polk vs Negreanu - who would win?
It actually looks like it might happen, so who would have the edge between these bitter poker rivals?
The feud between Daniel Negreanu and Doug Polk looks like it is never going to end but one thing that might put it to bed for a while is if they actually played each other. Polk threw down the gauntlet this week to play KidPoker heads-up. At the time of writing it actually looks like it is finally going to happen.
The feud is getting boring between the two but a heads-up match would be very interesting. If it were five years ago it would likely be a one sided hammering of Negreanu but the fact that Polk has not played or studied the game seriously for around three years would make it competitive.
The proposed parameters seem to be an online heads-up match, half of which would be No Limit Hold’em, the other half a format of Negreanu’s choosing (still possibly No Limit it seems). It would be two tables at once and around 10,000 to 25,000 hands.
In Negreanu’s corner
Negreanu is neither an online specialist or a HUNL expert, he is more geared towards live poker as well as the other poker variants. However, he has adapted his game for the solver era and has been competitive with the Super High Rollers. Justin Bonomo commented how improved a player he was when he got heads-up with Negreanu in the Super High Roller Bowl. I’m not sure any of the established nosebleed GTO regulars would think he was +EV in those fields, but he is no longer the underdog he might have been.
He also has played a lot more poker than Polk over the last three or so years, which should count for something. Ring rust is a thing in poker like anything else, although Phil Galfond has shown it is possible to come out of retirement well for the right challenge.
Then there is the fact that Negreanu tends to step up his game when he challenges himself. He always tends to perform at the WSOP for example, is usually going for Player of the Year and right now is on a hot streak of cashes in the online WSOP.
His biggest strength is perhaps his live reads, which would all but be gone in a challenge of this type unless there is a webcam/Twitch stream involved.
In Polk’s corner
He may be rusty, but Doug Polk was considered for a long time to be the best heads-up No Limit player in the world. He has probably forgotten more than most people would know about the format and is likely still a technically much better player than Negreanu. He wants to play at least 25,000 hands and that might be enough volume for him to get back in his groove and playing the poker that he made his name in.
The question is how well would he fare against Negreanu if it was in a lesser played format like Omaha Hi/Lo, Razz or Triple Draw? We have seen over the years plenty of good players win bracelets in formats they had previously not played and whenever I have asked elite players a question of this nature, they tend to agree that having better overall poker chops was more important than being a specialist in the format. With some coaching I suspect his No Limit skills could transfer to a different format. If Negreanu actually chose to play 100% No Limit against him, the edge would have to go to Polk.
It is no secret that Polk has found it hard to motivate himself to play, he has retired from poker and poker content creation several times now. The one thing that seems to put a fire in his belly is his feud with Daniel Negreanu, if pride and money was on the line, I think he would find the inspiration he needs to perform.
Having said that there is always the chance with Polk that he spends his entire prepation time formulating elaborate jokes about rake rather than studying.
If the challenge took place soon, I actually think Negreanu has the edge. He has adapted his game well enough to the modern era that a ring rusty Polk would at least not find him a pushover. If, however, Polk had two or more months to learn the other format and get some table time in, I think he would be the clear favourite.
It’s probably all academic as plenty could get in the way of it still happening, but let us know who you think would win a potential grudge match below:
