[SNG] *** Collin Moshman Blog ***

just my two drunken cents

i d consider folding but we need more info

are the 70 hands just from the ft?
what other stacks are at the table`?
how is the payout structure?
did the other players made any big scores in the past / can we abuse the money jumps? --> if the sb never made it to a ft like this his reshoving range would be probally very strong like you said TT/JJ+ and AQs+

--> if have hero has anedge on the rest of the ft he should look for better spots if the edge is small or nonexistent or even worse if the other players have an edge on hero he should maybe call

Thanks for the comments zitT, while I would almost always call there I definitely agree that there is other relevant info for decisions like this one

Ken “Teach” Aldridge and the Million Dollar Stake

There’s a substantial 2+2 thread about the efforts of a player to sell his action in the upcoming $1M WSOP event. The majority of posters seem disinclined to invest. Understatements aside, the thread is basically mocking the guy. Here are the two main criticisms made by posters, along with my comments.

The player is –EV in the tournament. Whether this is true depends on his skill level relative to that of the field, as well as the rake -- or in this case, amount withheld for charity. I’d very much tend to imagine that posters are right about him being –EV. With that said, most of the reasons he lists in favor of investing don’t pertain to it being a good spot $-wise. If you buy a $200 piece of the guy to be able to say you’ve got a piece of someone in that tourney, support the One Drop charity, and possibly win an autographed hoodie, that’d certainly be your prerogative. After all, any tournament where over 10% of the prizepool is withheld as a charitable donation can’t be all about the money right?

So while I definitely wouldn't invest in him, he is right that people can have other motives besides money for buying a piece of a player in a major tourney.

He makes misleading statements in his pitch. A lot of the 2+2 thread pertains to a Pokernews article containing dubious comments by Teach that was later taken down. On his current site though, the main thing I object to is his bullet point, “Potentially get 80% (normally 50%) return on investment.” First, by “return on investment” he's using a non-standard meaning of “% of any cash returned to investor.” So if he cashes for $2M, then someone who bought a $200 piece would receive back $320.

His claim that this figure is normally 50% is inaccurate. That would be the equivalent of a markup of 2.0, whereas markups of around 1.1-1.3 are standard in situations where the players is likely to have an edge. Most likely he’s not intentionally trying to mislead people. But when you’re selling action, particularly to a demographic who may be less experienced with live staking, you shouldn’t call terms “normal” without doing the research first.

With all that said, in the unlikely event he does manage to play, I certainly wish him the best. And with there being a large number of people mocking his chances and declining to invest, obviously the dude’s shipping it.

Stars Buying FTP? And an Interesting MTT Hand with 44

The big news today is the rumor that Stars is buying FTP. Best case scenario is:

All FTP players (US and rest-of-world) getting fully repaid

Both sites back online, including Stars or both back in US soon

There’s no question it’s great news, but it’s not a certainty at this point and timeframes are unknown. Requests for 90% or higher paid for FTP funds – as there have been several posts like today – are optimistic. There’s still need for confirmation this is correct, everything to actually go through in presumably a pretty complex deal, logistics of payment, and the timeline to consider. But it’s good news and let’s hope it happens, more to come.

Merge $33 turbo, Villain is 20/17 after 101 hands, dead SB. How would you rank the lines of fold, call, 3bet/call, 3bet/fold, and 3bet shove?

Merge (200/400 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players

Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG+2: 6,628 (16.6 bb)

MP1: 10,750 (26.9 bb)

MP2: 11,994 (30 bb)

MP3: 2,740 (6.9 bb)

CO: 2,161 (5.4 bb)

BTN: 9,599 (24 bb)

Hero (BB): 19,926 (49.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4s 4d

5 folds, BTN raises to 800, Hero...?

Buying FTP $, Insane Live 1/3, and Kindle Book Sales

Insane Live 1/3 Game

Katie and I played in a beyond-wild $1/$3 game at Hard Rock on Saturday. The guy to my left didn’t understand it was table stakes. He had a stack of $19, dealer told him it was $25 to call, and he said “Aww for real?”, reached into his pocket and pulled out his wallet. Dealer told him it was just what he had on the table and he seemed to consider folding at that point.

Table Stakes (who was actually a very nice guy) and I tangled in a few hands, including my last hand at the table. I limp KK UTG as probably 95% of pots were raised by one of two players, but alas, not this time: The entire 8-handed table called behind.

Flop: Ah Kh 8c (Pot: $24)

Blinds check, I toss out two red chips, table stakes raises to $20, player to his left flats, everyone folds back to me, I raise to $40 (wouldn’t normally size this small but they were both really short), they both call.

Turn: Td (Pot: $144)

I gangsta-toss a benji into the middle, table stakes calls all-in for about $20, player to his left calls all-in for about $60.

River blanks, table stakes flashes a queen with a knowing look, and I win the pot. Ship it!

Meanwhile Katie immediately shot up about $800 when she limped/shoved JJ $300 deep and got called by A5, then called a 150bb overbet shove with 44 on a flop of Q54. When the guy got called he sighed and was like, “I probably got kicker trouble here.” She actually put up a Cardplayer blog on the game from her perspective, check it out here.

Kindle Book Sales

A couple years ago, Katie and I took on the long project of writing a full-length thriller called The Superuser. Reviews were good but sales were slow, in large part because we were getting very little exposure as a self-published Kindle book. I read another low-priced indy thriller on Kindle called Thread of Hope, where the author blogged about being in a similar situation, then making the book free for a couple of days, getting a ton of downloads, and then doing very well in paid sales once the book had a price tag again.

So it was experiment time for us. Between last Friday and Sunday it was free, and its free sales ranking improved until it was #60 or so in Kindle Free, and we got over 6000 downloads.

Not everyone can manage to make 6000 x $0 for three day’s work baby!

It was cool though that people were reading it, and our hope was that sales would be decent when it returned to the paid category.

Well on Monday it became paid again and sales were very slow again, but yesterday and today it looks like they’ve picked up some as we're currently about 6,000 in Kindle Paid which is better than it's been at any point previously. It's also doing a lot better in searches. So the experiment continues, but even if we never get a huge number of sales, it was still a very fun project where I got to collaborate with an amazing writer. So no regrets no matter what happens at this point!

Buying FTP $$

Another tough spot with a horse recently. Very talented MTT/MTTSNG player and friend/nice guy, always behind on rent/expenses and needed a loan. Like I’ve blogged about before, I used to be pretty quick to loan money in these situations particularly to friends and players I trusted. Since then I’ve had a lot of bad experiences unfortunately, including super-long repayment times, outright defaults, and hard feelings from players I had thought of as good friends.

In this case though, we were able to reach a diffferent arrangement. While I’m not actively looking to buy FTP $$, he had money caught on there so I bought a chunk. The EV of this purchase is tough to assess. On the one hand, I paid a significant discount compared to par value. On the other hand, a lot has to go right for me to collect:

Stars has to in fact go through with the purchase
DOJ has to accept
Player balances have to be refunded
He has to actually pay me (would be very surprised if 1-3 happened and he didn’t pay, but I’ve been wrong before)

And even if all four of those happen, the timeframe is very unknown. But at least this way he gets to pay his rent and I've got the potential to make a bit more if FTP money does get repaid.

Staking and a Masterful Underbet

Staking’s been a bit of a rollercoaster recently. Some players doing great including a couple very solid recoveries from bad runs, while on the flip side today I had to writeoff a longterm stake with a good player who was in a lot of makeup. He's a good guy who's made a lot of money on-stake in the past but wants to take a long-term break from poker, so we decided it was in both of our best interests for him to do that.

While never fun to write off a loss, if there weren’t write-offs from time to time, staking would have an enormously high return. In fact that situation would be kind of like a staker’s paradise. With enough bankroll, you could just put anyone in high-stakes MTT and nosebleed cash games and freeroll on them showing some profit. With the guarantee never to take a loss, the worse that could happen would be that you give an interest-free loan.

Come to think of it, that would really be awesome...

Meanwhile I had a new staking experience in selling my own WSOP action on 2+2. For anyone that may have wanted action but missed this one, Katie still has a bit left for sale in her really high-value package, check it out here. Definitely looking forward to playing this summer and really motivated to make something happen for my investors and myself. Anything can happen in a small number of tournies but I feel good about it.

I tweeted a hand that one of our MTT/MTTSNG horses sent me from a SCOOP event. I love this line against a hyper-aggressive player like Isildur. It seems so transparently weak, that besides bluff-raising hands without showdown value, I think he’s likely to turn a lot of hands with marginal showdown value into bluffs in a spot like this. Against strong players you’ve either gotta eliminate blocking bets from your arsenal entirely or mix things up like this. So, very well played.

How Good are NL Bots? You be the Judge

In discussions about bots, some people take it for granted that they'll play well. How can a human match up to professionally-programmed software that can instantly calculate odds and hand combos, never tilts, and has a solution programmed in for every situation?

In most formats though, particularly NL, it’s extremely tough to program a bot to play well. Imagine if you were the programmer and had to give an action to to every possible scenario, including different bet-sizes. E.g. There are two limpers. You raise X range and one of them min 3bets, how do you handle that with every hand in your raising range as a function of positions, stack depth, and possibly their stats? Then what about every street post-flop, against as a function of all those variables?

Check out the heads-up no-limit bot Sartre created by the University of Auckland. You can play it free here, starting every hand 200bb deep.

Assuming you agree with me that it's not a particularly tough opponent to beat, you might that’s just because the programmers didn’t put a lot of effort into it. While that's possible, they also have a limit bot (thanks to @pnewall for tweeting about this) that’s a very solid player. I think it's just super-tough to create a really good NL bot. If anyone disagrees or knows of very strong/successful NL bots out there, definitely let me know.

I mentioned earlier that many just assume bots will play very well. One noteable exception is my friend KidKash who’s made good money exploiting weak heads-up limit bots on Full Tilt, and has a new one on Merge he’s clobbering now too. While it’s usually impossible to know for sure that a given player is a bot, he pointed out aspects of its timing that make me confident he's right, and he has very specific ways to exploit this opponent.

Check out his blog for more thoughts on botting here (registration required). While I do think it’s wrong for anyone to put a bot on a site where that’s against the TOS, I very much like that approach of thinking about how to exploit it rather than just assuming it'll play well and reporting it.

Nice - thx for the link
Im playing now. The bot also Raise/Fold Flop in 3Bet Pot ^^

Yes the bot does make some strange plays!

WSOP Season is Here.

My first event is this Saturday, the $1500 re-entry with two Day 1’s. If I bust the first I’ll play the second with a full stack and starting blinds. I expect it to be a pretty good field. (I’ve had a lot of convos recently where my or others’ use of “good field” or “good table” has been ambiguous. It could mean “good for you, the player, since most opponents are weak” or it could mean “most opponents are good players and therefore bad for you, the player.” I take it to mean the former, a soft/desirable field.)

Someone asked me on Skype whether the guaranteed re-entry would affect my strategy since I could gamble it up more on the first day 1 and go for a big stack, then play more conservative on the 2nd bullet if needed. My answer was ... no. My usual strategy in large, soft fields is to play a solid ABC game, at least pre-ante. So that’s my plan for both days. Post-ante I’ll open a lot more hands at the right tables, but always stay patient in decent structures.

On Monday I played a $125 one-table satellite with TM player Smile1. It was a pretty sweet table. A drunk singing 40-year old woman knocked everyone out, so we moved over to 1/3 cash where a spazz won a nice pot off both of us when he flopped a full house.

I was still up from the cash session though.

I raise AQo to $12 UTG, quiet 30 year-old who hasn’t played much flats in hjack, everyone else folds.

Flop: As Ad 3s

Action: I bet $10, he raises to $30, I call.

While he didn’t seem bluffy from what I’d seen, based on my small c-bet size and him raising a pretty dry flop instead of waiting for the turn, a bluff seemed a lot more likely than normal. Based on that I’m happy to hand him the betting lead and let him continue if he is bluffing plus save a bit if he does have AK/33, even though I probably won't win the max if he has AJ/ATs or something.

Turn: Kc

Action: I check, he bets $50, I call.

River: 9c

Action: I check, he bets $85 leaving $30 left. I just call and he quickly mucks.

I’ll update my WSOP events on Twitter @TeamMoshman and blog about any particularly interesting hands, unless they involve me having AA since I need Borgata123 to stop spreading the word that I only play aces. (Although come to think of it, it may be true.)

Good luck and ship one event

Thanks Kraterspalter!

Four Hands from WSOP $1500 Re-Entry Event

First, see Katie's excellent blog here on the various WSOP controversies. I agree with just about all of the criticisms being made on the Twitterverse, and there's definitely an amusing side to aspects as well. For me at least it's just so inappropriate that it's kinda funny when the official WSOP account retweets that a player is a "complete bitch," or having a dealer so unprofessional that he literally won't continue dealing because the next table over is paying a large gentleman to do the worm and he finds this so funny he has to stand up to watch.

Anyway, on to some hands from my two bullets at the $1500 re-entry this past weekend.

Blinds: $50-$100

I raise to $250 UTG with 8s8c, button flats, BB flats.

Flop: Qd Td 5s (Pot: $800)

Everyone checks

Turn: Th

BB checks, I bet $500, button folds, BB calls.

I’m pretty confident that if any blank hits the river it’ll go check check and my eights will showdown; the Jd wasn't what I was looking for but I checked back instead of turning my hand into a bluff and lost to his AJ.

The next level I got involved in an all-in against a short-stack.

Blinds: $75-$150

Very loose-passive 50-year-old in a suit limps MP1, I raise to $500 in the cutoff with ATo, SB shoves $2200, folded back to me. I tank, starting off by confirming that I’m getting between 3:2 and 2:1, then going over his range in my mind. I’d seen him shove about 4 times in the 40 minutes I’d been at that table, so figured he was on a range of at least any mid-high pair, strong broadway hands, mid-high suited aces, and offsuit aces that had me dominated. After about two minutes of thought I was pretty confident I was getting the price I needed against his range so I tossed in the chips and lost a flip vs 99.

I chipped back up some and busted at a wild table while looking to take advantage of major overlay.

Blinds: $200-$400-$50

UTG+1 raises to $850, two loose players call, I shove $5300 on the button with KQo, UTG+1 4bet shoves for about $10k total, everyone else folds.

I knew when I shoved that I was getting called the vast majority of the time, but usually it’d be heads-up with about half my stacks in overlay from all the dead money. UTG+1 was a reg so I didn’t think he was on a particularly narrow range opening from early position. He had AJ so it was a decent spot but I bricked and busted day 1a.

Fortunately I had a great (super-soft) table on day 1b. Card-dead at first but chipped up a bit through picking good spots, then got involved in an all-in vs the table’s short-stack.

Blinds: $25-$50

MP2 open-limps, I raise to $175 OTB with 9 9, folds back to him, he snap-shoves for an additional $1075. He was a loose player who had just lost a couple of medium-sized pots playing poorly. I thought I was at least even against his pairs; didn’t think he’d snap-shove KK+, and felt there was decent chance he showed up with a lower pair. Meanwhile flipping against overcards, sometimes he has something random/crazy like T8s and also getting reasonable price, so I called after about 90 seconds thought. He had AQ and I didn't hold.

Then I got involved a bunch with the player to my left. We both saw a flop in a multiway pot where I had 22. Flop came K45 checked, turn 2, I bet 75% of pot and he called, river 7 completing backdoor flush, I bet 55% of pot planning to fold if he raised since I’d been watching his postflop play pretty carefully and he was passive/cautious and I was convinced he’d only raise a flush or better. He called and showed 77 for rivered higher set. Then I opened AK UTG, he 3bet UTG+1, I 4bet shoved 19bb total, he called with AQ and I won the hand.

But he had the last laugh when he crippled me with AQ > KK, and I busted open-shoving my last 8bb with QTo on the button and lost to the big blind’s AK. Still early and feeling very good, next event this Saturday $1500.

Tale of my First Cash of the 2012 WSOP

Day 1 of the Saturday $1500, I started off making a big fold in a multiway pot. 180bb deep, I opened 55 in the lojack and got 4 callers.

Flop: Kh Jh 5h

Checked to me, I bet 70% of pot, decent reg to my immediate left 3x’s, everyone folds back to me. I tank and fold. I really thought he had a hand like 9h8h, was rarely (but occasionally) value-raising worse, and would’ve likely flatted the Ah. Furthermore when I am ahead I thought I often wouldn't win much more, but if I called the flop and was behind it'd be real tough to get away on the later streets unless a 4th heart fell. While I didn’t love folding, it was a good table with plenty of recreational players so rather than play on in a large pot out of position against one of the few decent regs in a spot I didn’t particularly like, I just tossed the hand.

A bit later I got moved to a new table that was really soft. Victor Ramdin was a few to my left, and other than that it was entirely recreational players. Like I’ve said before, in tables like that I like to mainly play solid/TAG to steadily chip up (which I was doing nicely at this table), and then take advantage of having a not-crazy image to make looser plays in the right spots. E.g. 3 limpers and I 4.5x Q9s in the hijack, everyone folds. And then came my big play, a situation that was so perfect I planned to ship the average stack in the room pre with just about anything. Here’s how it went down.

Blinds: $500-$1k-$100

Ramden raises to $2400 MP1, gets 4 (!) callers, I look down at J7s in the big blind and ship my $26k stack.

Ramden was opening a ton (and playing well), I thought he was probably on a range of at least top 33% even from MP1. Meanwhile all of the flatters were loose players who I didn’t think would casually call off 26bb (which would’ve crippled or busted all but one of the flatters) close to the money with 66/KJs or whatever they were initially flatting with. So everyone folds a ton and I pick up about 14k without a fight, a really sweet boost of > 50% to my stack, and the worst case is I get it in as a pretty decent underdog but still with a ton of overlay.

Ramden folded quickly, then everyone else stared at me for a while before folding.

I continued to chip up steadily at the table and finished the night with just under $60k, about 1.5x average. We finished just past 2am, about 15 from the money. That night Katie gave me my scouting report for day 2, mainly unknown short stacks besides John Dolan to my immediate right with a big stack and a short-stacked internet reg a few to my left.

I went in feeling good, first 6 hands or so Dolan opened and everyone folded. Next hand everyone folds to me in hijack, I make it $2700 with ATo at 600-1200-200, and the internet reg shoves $20k from the blinds. I was probably opening about 75% there so I didn’t wanna fold AT to a 16.5bb shove. With that said I still would’ve done it (and quickly) versus a recreational player who just wanted to money and could be on a range as tight as QQ+ or something, but I thought this internet reg would be wide enough that I could profitably call. He had AJ and I didn't improve.

Then I got mega card-dead as Dolan continued to open super-wide, and open-shoved AJs on the button once the blinds increased. The big blind called with ATs; we both flopped top trips but he turned a full house and I was out with a mincash. I kinda felt like I'm supposed to win either AT vs AJ or AJ vs AT but oh well, next time!

The other aspect of the day that wasn't ideal was that there was a 3bb stack who stalled literally every hand, usually until the clock was called on him, even once we were in the money. I called the clock on him the 2nd or third time he did it, and he got really confrontational saying things like “I can’t believe this, I’m playing for six hundred thousand dollars here and you’re not letting me have a little time to decide…”. I finally gave up and let others at the table continue if they wanted since the floor wasn’t doing much about it and I really don’t like to let myself get emotionally involved with situations at the table. It did limit us to about 12 hands/hour though.

After I busted and took a couple minutes to regroup, it was past 3 so I decided not to play the noon $1k that was on the package I sold on 2+2. By the time I regged and got my seat, I’d be starting with just a 3000 stack at 75-150, and I didn’t think it was fair to investors to have them pay 1.28 markup for me to try to make something happen with a 20bb stack.

A few then tweeted at me that I should’ve played, with one even saying he was “pissed” I didn’t. I think/hope he was at least partially kidding, but I really feel like it was the right decision. I take the commitment to play all the tournies in my package seriously, but if I were investing in a player I’d want the full refund rather than pay markup for a tourney they’re late-regging 3 hours in with a 20bb stack. And so I made that decision for my investors.

So, that Sunday wasn't the best day overall, but I'm still feeling really good and looking forward to the events this upcoming weekend. Mark my words, 2012 will be the year of the over-30 SNG nits!

I like your fold with 55, oop you will get very littel value if you improve and if he doesn't 3bet jj pre you could even be nerly drawing dead (although a flush is way more likely).
Even if he has some kind of draw he will often barrel the Turn big, which leaves you with a hard spot to play.

I think the Ato call is boarderline, but should be ok with your more agressiv image.

I also like your fold with 55. I don't understand the guy being pissed because you didn't reg the 1k$. I mean it is not a 11$ pokerstars-donkament, so I would be fine with your decision not to register for taking a shot with just 20BB.

Original von CollinMoshman
2012 will be the year of the over-30 SNG nits!

Really good news for Unam I guess - don't forget to tell him

Thanks for the feedback and nice words Kraterspalter and Broenes, appreciate that. And LOL at your comment Broenes

WSOP Halftime Report: I’m the Only One Who…

First, a huge congrats to my wife Katie who played an incredibly solid game in her $600 VDSE and took 3rd for over $24k yesterday in a large and tough field. She's an exceptionally talented player, and I learn from her every time we discuss strategy.

-----

I’ve seen a number of people in my Twitter feed give catchy halftime reports, so here’s mine:

Three events played (one a re-entry)

1 Out of the Money finish

1 Mincash

1 Cash for ~ $4100

So while everyone else has either done amazingly well, or bricked everything, I’m like the only person who’s basically running right at EV. Score one for the SNG nits!

The last event had its highs and lows, like most.

I’m usually pretty tired by the end of day 1 since it doesn’t finish until close to 2am. With that said, I feel like I have a really nice edge then because so many people are either making significant mistakes due to fatigue, or have already mentally bagged up 30k or whatever and have really tightened up. I had a particularly profitable opportunity to accumulate near the end of the last day 1 when everyone had majorly tightened up, and in addition the player one to my left was telegraphing his folds. My openraises were taking down the blinds and antes unusually often, so I started raising very wide except in those instances where the guy to my left indicated he was going to play his hand.

It worked out well, and I again made day 2 with an above average stack after getting it in as a solid favorite in several day 1 allins and chipping up a lot without showdown. I started off day 2 accumulating a lot of chips on the bubble and continued to chip up nicely after that including one more all-in where I got it in as an 86% favorite on the turn.

Then I lost a flip to an 11bb stack, and he screamed “vamooooo” at the top of his lungs as he won. I asked him if we flipped again and I won, what I should yell in celebration. He told me that I should tell him to go fuck himself. The table (myself included) laughed. Sure enough, we did get involved in another flip a couple orbits later. I opened JJ in late position, he 3bet, and I 4bet shoved for about 22 bb effective. He had AK. The flop came all low cards. I’m not sure what I processed first; the dealer peeling off a turn K, or his 2nd “vamooooo” shout of the day. That one crippled me and I busted soon after in a short-stacked BvB confrontation.

The fields have been good though so I’m still feeling really good about the upcoming events.

I like ! vamooooo ♦

Original von CollinMoshman
WSOP Halftime Report: I’m the Only One Who…

First, a huge congrats to my wife Katie who played an incredibly solid game in her $600 VDSE and took 3rd for over $24k yesterday in a large and tough field.

Lol Wut? ♦

Congratulations!

Sincerely,
Pipes

Haha thanks Carty and Pipesmoker

Today's Entry: Bubble Stalling and a Day 2 Outlevel

First, it's been great seeing a number of TM horses/coaches/friends over the past month. Taken late last night at the Las Vegas Cue Club, we have below our longtime friend and cigar aficionado Gallopingael, my lovely wife Katie, myself, TM's financial master + pool champion Simon, and podcast expert + omaha champ Raizin Azian. It's also been great seeing Mdot20, DakotaXX, Threads13, Bwammo + 1, and everyone else who's come out.

-------

I busted my Saturday $1500 event late in the day, then went for redemption in the Sunday $1k. As usual I looked to sidestep tricky spots, such as this hand at 200-400-50.

I raise to $900 UTG with KcQc, reg defends in big blind.

Flop: 7d Td Kh

He checks, I bet $1300, he check/raises to $4300. We’re $13k deep and I fold.

If I’d raised button and he c/r’d or something like that, then I’d definitely play for stacks there, but I thought his range for the c/r after I raised UTG was mainly the 2-pairs he’d defend with pre, 77, possibly TT and AK if he didn’t 3bet them pre, and combo draws that I’m basically flipping with. After I folded he showed the Ks, which didn’t resolve all that much but I’ll pretend he had KsTs and I made an awesome fold.

I got super-lucky at 300-600-50 when I made a standard 3bet shove with a 15bb stack over an open with AJ, got called by QQ, and hit a runner-runner straight to take out his flopped top set. The player to my left was a very charismatic Canadian who got blinded down super low, then faced a raise that would have committed him pre while in the big blind. He debated (out loud) whether to put in his chips with 33 or fold and then stall every hand to the money. Eventually he opted for the latter, forcing the floor to be called almost every hand. He then shoved a stack of $1200 at 500-1000 with AA and lost to 98o when we were three from the money. Unlike the last staller I liked this guy and was kinda rooting for him even though he was slowing down the game.

I also played that day with Justin Young at the end of day 1 and Mement Mori on day 2, both of whom were really nice guys and seem like great ambassadors for poker.

I started day 2 short and doubled up soon when a reg opened, another reg 3bet, I shoved AK, and held against the 3bettors QT. Then I got it in with 40% equity at the flop and got there.

Blinds: $800-$1600-$200

I raise to $3600 in the hijack with AcTc, big blind calls.

Flop: 8c 8s 5d

He donk-bets $8,000, I shove for $30k effective. He tank-calls with 44.

I put him on a range of low-mid pocket pairs and 5X hands after his donk bet. I wasn’t sure if he’d fold, but when he does I win about $18k without a fight, and when he calls I’m paying $26k for 35% equity or so in a $60k+ pot. So I feel good that it's a decently +EV shove.

I ended up busting soon afterward though when I hero-called the LAG CL’s river shove after I flopped top pair against his button open and the board developed with 4 to a straight. I do sometimes have a winner there but it was a marginal spot that goes against my strategy of looking for clearly advantageous spots when the stacks are deep enough and there are weaker players at the table. I always give a lot of thought to decisions in-game, but I should’ve gotten away from this one and I really regretted the hand afterward.

On the plus side, it motivates me to always play my A-game, and it happened in a game where I “should've” busted before ITM anyway if I hadn't gotten really lucky hitting the backdoor straight.

So I feel very good for the upcoming group of prelims starting with tomorrow’s $1500 and leading up to the main event which is quickly coming up.

The Biggest Mistake in the History of Poker

First, a quick WSOP prelim wrapup.

No cashes in the last three unfortunately. In the weekend ones my all-in track record wasn’t the best, losing both times I got AA all-in pre (once to KQs and once to AKo). I also busted the final $1k in a hand where I deviated from my standard line.

Blinds: $75-$150

UTG raises to $400, CO flats, I shove $3200 OTB with AQo.

Despite a solid risk/reward ratio, I normally wouldn’t shove AQ there, particularly when UTG is a conservatively-dressed player in his 30s, since he may be on a very narrow opening range. But he’d recently shown down 32s after raising MP1, and I wasn’t too suspicious of the random deciding to flat in late position, so I shipped it and lost to UTG’s AKo. I’m pretty sure the shove is unexploitable though(i.e. profitable regardless of calling ranges) given UTG’s opening range and the CO’s flatting range, so no regrets there.

Not the best finish to my prelims, but while I was down a bit overall, I did cash in three of the events and played my best. Two of the day 2’s I made I started with a nicely above-average stack, but lost pretty much all my all-ins. I’m not complaining, that’s just poker and I’m sure I ran good in other ways. And Katie cleaned up in her prelim package which was awesome.
I play Day 1b of the main event on Sunday, hoping for a good run.

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A lot of people are still talking about the face-up quads fold in One Drop. I don’t have the exact details, but will reconstruct the action as closely as I can to start the discussion.

Blinds: $6000-$12000-$2000

Preflop: Dwan raises to $32k (position unknown), Mikhail Smirnov calls in SB with 8h 8d, John Morgan calls in BB.

Flop: Js 8c 7s (Pot: $114k)

Action: Smirnov bets $50k, Morgan calls “quickly,” Dwan folds.

Turn: 8s (Pot: $214k)

Action: Smirnov bets $200k, Morgan insta-calls.

River: Ks (Pot: $614k)

Action: Smirnov bets $700k, Morgan shoves $3.4M, Smirnov folds face-up.

Analysis: Smirnov afterward says this was a “very easy fold,” which I think most would agree at least intuitively is a strange comment to make here.
I agree that the river shove indicates huge strength, particularly from a tighter player. So let’s assume that Morgan is almost never bluffing or randomly shoving without a purpose. The only hands consistent with the river action are, let’s say, JJ, KK, and Ts9s.

So now let’s look at the earlier streets. Ts9s is the most consistent with the preflop action, but one aspect of the flop and turn are inconsistent. In particular, quick calls are rarely monsters. Everyone agrees that Morgan insta-called the turn. It’s just super unlikely he makes a quick flop call with the nuts and doesn’t even consider raising, and it’s even more unlikely on the turn in a million dollar tourney in a large pot holding the stone nuts facing a large bet. Same with JJ, both of those hands are strong enough that turn snap-calls are unlikely. Definitely not impossible, just inconsistent with the timing.

So the alternative is KK. While Morgan would most likely 3bet KK preflop, a cautious amateur could have decided to avoid playing a large pot OOP against Dwan with a fairly deep effective stack, even with a monster. The quick flop and turn calls would then be less inconsistent with a hand like KK, as would the river shove.

So I believe that KK is Morgan’s most likely holding in this spot.

But let’s make the most generous assumptions we can for Smirnov’s fold:

1. Morgan never holds any hand besides KK or Ts9s (including 0% chance of JJ).

2. Morgan’s actions are equally consistent with KK or Ts9s.
There are three KK combos and one Ts9s combo. Therefore Smirnov has 75% equity against Morgan’s shoving range while getting around 7:4 and therefore needing only about 36% equity. Alternatively, Smirnov would be paying $2.7M for 75% equity in a $7.414M pot, for an equity gain of around $2.9M chips.

Smirnov therefore forfeits reasonably close to a million dollars in equity by folding there, based on the above assumptions. For that reason I believe this fold to be one of the most significant mistakes equity-wise in the history of tourament poker.

Original von CollinMoshman

(......)

But let’s make the most generous assumptions we can for Smirnov’s fold:

1. Morgan never holds any hand besides KK or Ts9s (including 0% chance of JJ).

2. Morgan’s actions are equally consistent with KK or Ts9s.
There are three KK combos and one Ts9s combo. Therefore Smirnov has 75% equity against Morgan’s shoving range while getting around 7:4 and therefore needing only about 36% equity. Alternatively, Smirnov would be paying $2.7M for 75% equity in a $7.414M pot, for an equity gain of around $2.9M chips.

Smirnov therefore forfeits reasonably close to a million dollars in equity by folding there, based on the above assumptions. For that reason I believe this fold to be one of the most significant mistakes equity-wise in the history of tourament poker.

Ive also heard from this hand. Maybe one word is ideal - MoneyScared