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NL25 SH AQo river value bet? Sizing?

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caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007
Elite Grinder

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 130.96 BB
SB: 79 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 102.84 BB
MP: 194.84 BB
CO: 185.52 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♦ A♠

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 6♥ A♣ 9♦
MP bets 4.56 BB, Hero calls 4.56 BB

Turn: (16.52 BB, 2 players) T♠
MP bets 10.48 BB, Hero calls 10.48 BB

River: (37.48 BB, 2 players) 9♥
MP checks, Hero bets 18 BB, MP calls 18 BB

Spoiler

Hero shows Q♦ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
(Pre 58%, Flop 63%, Turn 0%)
MP shows 7♣ 8♣ (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 42%, Flop 37%, Turn 100%)
MP wins 70.16 BB
Rake paid 3.32 BB

I'm not playing w/ a HUD, so no stats on the player, but as far as I have observed him, he's a pretty solid regular, not very aggressive, as far as I have seen him in sd, he's got a pretty solid strong range.

So, up to the river it's pretty standard I guess. On the river, I think I have to bet, but I'm not quite sure, because he could easily have TT, 99, AA, 87s, AK. Although he wouldn't always check them, I think he's gonna do it from time to time. I only really have value against AJ, maybe some low suited A.

What do you guys think? Bet small, check back? Shove :f_ugly:?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008
BlackMember

it boils down to whether
a. villain checks stronger hands here
AK, full houses and straights
b. whether villain bets twice and checkcalls with worse hands
AJ A8s A7s?

i think we should check here, a smart player will realize that it is -EV to checkcall the river with AJ because he is not beating any hand in our range unless we call twice with a hand like T8 and turn it into a bluff


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