[Closed] [coaching-feedback] NL SSS Gold with xarry2 - wednesdays at 7pm CET

Can you also include the HEM stat ''Fold to 3bet %'' in this equation? Although I do not count the full 75% of a player who folds that mucht to a 3bet, does this say something about his final calling range?

The fold to 3bet stat is an important indicator for evaluating the calling range. nevertheless I think it wouldn't be a good idea to include it into the formula. imo this value - which is based on all hands where the opponent gets a 3bet - is mostly not the same for 3bets by shortstacks. most players call much looser against shortstack reraises than versus bigstack reraises. but I would use this value to get a feeling for his calling range. this means an opponent with e.g. 75% fold to 3bet I'll judge as rather tight whereas an opponent with just 50% will be judged as rather loose.

Adv SSS Coaching - 02/25

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
[tg]Hero$74,90:///////;UTG+2$240,80:///////;BB$400,00:///////;UTG+1$74,00:///////;CO$398,79:///////;MP1$114,00:///////;MP3$503,16:///////;MP2$389,90:///////;SB$94,00:///////;[/tg]
2,00/4,00 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BU with A♥, T♠
6 folds, Hero raises to $10,00, SB raises to $25,00, BB folds, Hero raises to $74,90 (All-In), SB calls $49,90.

Flop: ($153,80) J♥, 8♣, 7♠
Turn: ($153,80) K♥
River: ($153,80) Q♥

Final Pot: $153,80

SB plays SSS, 11 VPIP, 10 PFR, fold BB to steal 76%. history: I've been stealing pretty much against him before, he always folded.

First I want to examine wether we can go broke here or not. I assume to get reraised directly all-in - no fold equity. This is pretty much the worst case for me since it means that there aren't any 3bet/fold hands in SBs range. In this scenario he'll thus only reraise value hands which he can't/shouldn't fold to a push. Consequently we simply calculate the pot odds for an all-in and then decide what to do:

Pot Odds with Rake are: 74.90$ + 4$ + 10$ - 3$ / 64.90$ = 1.32:1 which equals 43% break even equity. Wether we can call now depends on his reraising range. Since my image is aggressive Í assume he'll reraise pretty loose. Which range does he at least need to have?
I'm break even against something like: 77+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+ (~13%) imo he'll be much looser like any pair, any Ace, any broadway.
Thus, even though the odds we're getting aren't pretty good we'll have clear call.

Well, in fact he did not reraise all-in but just raised 2.5x my raise. Why? I think he's making a good play. With just raising 2.5x he achieves that I have to guess much more what he's holding than if he would push directly. A direct push is in 95% NOT a bluff/semibluff. with the amount he risks here however, he could! play 3bet/fold. he could possibly just bluff 3bet me since I've been so aggressive. he just risks 22$ in order to win 19$. if he was in the BB his move would be even more profitable. and thats the point: I can't say if he just plays back or really has a legitimate restealing hand. this makes my decision much more complicated than it would be if he just pushed. (Thus I also resteal this way against many players in this spot)
Finally: how would our calculation look like if we include bluffs? The formula we now have to use for calculating the EV of a push against his reraise is the following:

EV = Foldequity*Pot Preflop + (1-Foldequity)[amount to win*our equity - Our stack*(1-Equity)]

So we have two important values: our foldequity and our equity against his callingrange. The first increases the more bluffs/semibluffs he'll play with 3bet/fold. The latter depends on the hands he goes all-in with. Since those parameters are pretty variable from spot to spot I can't make a general calculation of this spot. I have to make estimations first. there I have to include all information I have about my opponent and our history/image.
In this spot I think I can give him like 10-20% 3bet/fold. this 3bet/fold hands are usually (if played correctly) weak suited connectors/gappers, weak offsuited connectors or total trash. => hands which he can fold to my push. it would be a big mistake to 3bet/fold 22 or A2s. as soon as I increase my pushing range against his low 3bets he's automatically commited with these hands. I'll assume now that he 3bets 30% overall. out of this range 20% are bluffs so his calling range is like 24% (22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A6o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo). we have 53% equity. and the maximum amount we can win from him is our starting stack size (75.90$) and the BB 6$ minus rake 3$ = 79.8$

EV = 0.2*41$ + 0.8[78.9$*0.53 - 75.9$*0.47] = 13.1$

In this case our profit is pretty good. btw, what is our break even quity now? without FE it was 43%. now it is ~42.5% but: this means we can go broke in this special case (exactly this FE, this calling range) with every hand which has more than 42.5% equity against his calling range. this would be 22+, A7o+, A2s+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs+.
I can just recommend to you to exercise such examples with similar calculations. only by doing so you'll get a good feeling for profitable hands in such spots.

regards,
xarry

Xarry's favourite songs (Week 8)

btw, if you add &fmt=18 to the link of an openend youtube video you'll get it in stereo and better video quality.

This week will be all about german minimal electro artists. the first two songs are simply beautiful. Especially "Jet" is one of my overall favourite tracks. Modeselektor combine elements of Dancehall elements with Techno/Minimal. Since I usually don't like Dancehall I'm really astonished how good this mix is however.

1) Butch - Amelie

2) Ellen Allien & Apparat - Jet

And a remix from Paul Kalkbrenner:

3) Modeselektor - Dark side of the Sun

Search for the 200007 - Siriusmo Remix on hypem.com. It's great but I didn't find it on youtube.

Modeselektor also remixed Björk's Dull Flame of Desire, great!

erased

Adv SSS Coaching - 03/04

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$88,00:///////;BU$400,00:///////;[/tg]
2,00/4,00 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with J♠, T♥
7 folds, BU raises to $10,00, SB folds, Hero calls $6,00.

Flop: ($22,00) Q♥, J♥, T♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BU checks.

Turn: ($22,00) 9♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $15,00, BU calls $15,00.

River: ($52,00) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $66,00, Hero calls $63,00.

Final Pot: $181,00

BU is TwiceT, aggressive TAG. 14/11, BU ATS 45%. I decide to call JT preflop. TwiceT will probably loosen up his BU range even more if a shortie is in the BB. I don't want to resteal, which would in general be possible, since I want to keep the worst hands of his range in the pot. Just one example:

JTo vs 50% range: ~45% equity
JTo vs 20% range: ~35% equity

By just calling I avoid isolating my medium strong hand against a much tighter callingrange if I restealed. The pot oods are also very decent for a call: 16/6 = 2.67:1 which equals 27% break even equity. Thus it should be pretty easy to make a profitable play postflop. its just important to not only make passive defends with JTo type hands. Throw in some calls with monsters like AA or AK in order to balance your ranges at least a bit. In additon if you make coldcalls OOP versus steals always consider that your hand isn't dominated more often than it dominates the hands of your opponents. In this case hands like J6-J9 or T6-T9 are definetely in his range. Thus the dominated hands are ~equal to the not-dominated ones.

The flop is nice. I want to get it all-in, which means: checkraise the flop cbet. Unfortunately he does not cbet and the board develops even uglier. Nevertheless I can get some information out of the checkbehind: it looks like a hand which does not want to get action on the flop since it has some showdownvalue. I just don't think he has a monster here often. He knows I make the preflopcall just in order to checkraise the flop. so why should he not bet his strong hands in order to get my checkraise? I think because he has nothing. usually something like an overcard, backdoorflushdraw or gutshot. well the turn, I now have to bet for protection and will go broke. he just calls which looks like a backdoorflushdraw, a one paired hand like a Tx or 9x. the river looks even uglier but in fact is not a big problem. he won't have a Q in 99%. it would be very missplayed. nevertheless I still have to fear straights. on the other hand: most straights will raise the turn since my bet could easily stand for a flushdraw, too. so he could have 88 maybe (with an 8 in hearts) or 87. but Kx is usually not in his range. Thus we have many unimproved draws/turnfloats, maybe some monsters which were played strangely and a couple of weak straights with an 8. betting makes no sense imo. I don't get value. thus by playing c/c I can induce bluffs. nevertheles the odds on the river aren't really good. but my line looks pretty weak. thus my opponent will try a lot of bluffs.

Xarry's favourite songs (Week 9)

btw, if you add &fmt=18 to the link of an openend youtube video you'll get it in stereo and better video quality.

1) Bat for Lashes - Daniel

The containing album will be released in April. That's why there isn't a music video yet. but the song is imo beautiful alone

2) The Whitest Boy Alive - Courage

Erlend Oye! he just released another album with his project "The Whitest Boy alive". If you like smooth and funky songs Erlend Oye is the choice I can also recommend this DJ Kicks compilation

and my favourite song of their last album:

3) The Futureheads - The Beginning of the Twist

test

Good and solid review

hey xarry2,
i dont understand the calculation with AJo vs 15%.
.............
50% calling range:

calling range: 7.5% (88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+)
In case we get called we have 37.4% Equity.

EV = 0.5*4BB + 0.5[0.374*20BB - 0.626*20BB] = -0.52BB
...........

why do you write [FoldEquity * 4BB] here? & not [FoldEquity * (4 + 1,5)BB]

you do not pay Rake if MP2 folds preflop?

on the other side ( 0.5[0.374*20BB - 0.626*20BB] ) you should have to pay Rake if you get called and win the pot. so the 20BB should be correct?! 20bb + 1,5bb Blinds - 1,5bb Rake = 20bb

so, why FoldEquity * openraise size

thx for the remark. It seems like I messed that up. I assumed again that rake and blinds equal each other. but then we definetely have to count the blinds if MP2 folds.
I'll change that immediately...

regards,
xarry

Adv SSS Coaching - 03/11

Last coaching I tried to talk/make bluffresteals. This is something rather uncommon and I use it very carfully. The reason is that its pretty risky and -used in false spots - not profitable. Currently I only apply a bluffreraise in BBvsSB steal/resteal situations. This is often a perfect spot since many bigstacks steal highly aggressive against a SSSP in the Big Blind. In addition we have position. Which advantages this gives us will be explained later on. Let's start with the preparations :):

SB is a pretty ABC regular, TAGgy. Imo such players are good victims for a move. They often multitable and don't really pay much attention to the game flow. Furthermore I think most of them steal pretty loose in the SB as soon as they see a SSSP in the BB. As long as there isn't history they probably steal between 40% and 90%. It is important to consider the SB-ATS of your opponent. But don't forget: the SB-ATS is an average value and includes all SBvsBB steal spots. However players tend to loosen up if its versus a SSSP. Thus the real ATS of your opponent in this specific situation will usually be higher than the one you get displayed. Nevertheless you have to take into account all your reads and individual information about the opponent in order to evaluate how much the real value deviates from the on which is displayed. Of course taking the value which you get by your tracker is also fine - nevertheless not absolutely true.
Before you even think of making bluffresteals you have to change your restealing strategy in the following manner:

2,00/4,00 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with T♣, A♦
6 folds, SB raises to $12,00, Hero raises to $28,00, SB raises to $809,00 (All-In), Hero calls $52,00.

Maybe some of you wouldn't play the resteal the way I did. I can remember that I too used to make direct pushs much more than normal reraises. Maybe to avoid difficult spots if I get called or what to do when I get raised All-in. Concerning the latter I recommend: never make a normal value-reraise and fold to a push as long as your stack is below 25BB. Why? Well, it maybe the case that we're now way behind but the money which is already in the pot commits us usually. With a 20BB stack a normal 3times reraise is like 12BB vs a 4BB raise or 9BB vs a 3BB one. In both spots every hand which was a correct reraise before has enough equity to go broke. In the first scenario you get pot odds of (blinds ignored) 20BB+12BB / 8BB = 4:1 which equals at least 20% break even equity and in the second one you need 27.5%. Imo you always have so much equity. Thus raise/fold would be burning money. If I make a small reraise which is intended as a value reraise I also call the push. For info about why I make small reraises at all just take a look back at the recent posts. I already wrote pretty much about that.
So much concerning this. Let's come to the point now ♦ Currently I defend this way against every rather reasonable/TAGgy or SSSP opponent. Against callingstations or pretty loose players making the raise big of course maximizes our profit. So the preparation is: change your game in BBvsSB value-resteals this way. make the reraise as small as the foldequity/risk ratio is good. This means a minraise makes it very cheap but on the other hand creates not much FE. I usually reraise between 2x and 2.5% depending on my opponent/stacksize ect. Just make these plays with value hands at first. Now its about to create an image and to make your opponents familiar with your play and: to let them see you never 3bet/fold or bluff in BBvsSB when you make a small reraise. In addition you can gather experience for spots where you get pushed or called and gather reads how your indivudual opponents play against your small reraises. Use this information! This is absolutely neccessary.
i.e. in this hand SB has seen I've been making a justified reraise. It would be to easy to say that just one hand makes him believe that I have to be respected in such spots. But I definetly won some credit for my small steals.
On the other hand going broke with KQo (which he showed) gives me some information about his callingrange. KQo isn't totally a standard push but for players who play against more aggressive SSSP its nothing spectacular. Would he show like JTs I should be bothering about making a bluffresteal. This is just a strong indicator that SB is going broke looser against such plays. Therefore I maybe don't have enough credit for a possible bluffplay.

2,00/4,00 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2♦, K♦
7 folds, SB raises to $12,00, Hero raises to $28,00, SB folds.

Final Pot: $40,00

Some hands later the similar spot occured. the same SB steals against me. According to stats his SB-ATS was like 40% which I think should be the lower boundary for thinking about throwing in a bluffresteal. It is definetely a bit risky to make the move so early in our history but imo it just was a good spot. I however make this decision with the information/history from the hand above. We could argue about it - but for coaching purposes I have to use the rare spots I get in those 90mins
As you can see I make my play exactly the same way as above. If you reraise above to like 26$ you also have to make it equally in this spot - as long as other parameters like stacksize stay constant. Finally you should get familiar with the succes chances you need. In this spot I risk 24$ (I already have the 4$ BB laying in front of me) for winning 16$. Thus I at least need 60% fold equity. Let's first assume a 40% stealrange which is the one I had from him at that point:

44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o

He will probably continue with something like this 44+,A2s+,KQs,A3o+,KQo which equals 19.8%. Its easy to see that I just have a little bit more than 50% FE. e.g. my reraise isn't profitable currently.
Nevertheless according to my evaluation of SB I was pretty sure he'd be stealing against me with more than 40% since I haven't been reraises/defending often before. If we assume 50% stealing range and the same calling range we have a foldequity of 1 - (19.8/50) of 60.4% so a small small! profit. I hope you see how critical this can get. Without having good reads I shouldn't make this play. It would however change the needed FE to just raise to 26 or 24$. (57.9% or 55.6% minimum FE). However with just a raise to 24$ its getting much more probable that SB calls us. If we have notes he's not calling or hardly ever then we can go down with the raising size.
To sum up: this hand may have a slight profit but as played it is pretty marginal. With a higher SB-ATS, a smaller reraisesize and maybe more history giving me credit and prooving that he's not calling/pushing too loose against me I however like this play.

Btw, its usually not a good idea to bluffresteal with more than 1/3 of your stack since it's then again pretty hard to fold to a push. Thus its best to reraise against small stealraises and maybe with trash hands where you don't get tempted to call an all-in. On the other hand having at least some value/potential like suitedness or connectedness improves the playability in case you get called and have to play posflop. But I really try to just make a bluff against opponents where I assume calls are pretty unlikely. So my hand isn't that important.

Would he push against me I'll definetely fold. my starting stack was 23BB, thus I need at least 35% equity (whith rake like 36-37%) to go broke which I don't have against 19.8%. It is however getting closer. Maybe the used hand isn't optimal. However I have to make a note that I played 3bet/fold in BBvsSB against this opponent. If he thinks about my play he should conclude I didn't have something strong. And in the near future I shouldn't make moves against him again. My credit has decreased and maybe he now calls/pushs much looser against my resteals which makes bluffs unprofitable.

As you may have noticed this is a wide field and gathering all important information would go beyond the boundaries of such a coaching review. I will continue to use bluffresteals in my coachings. But imo it is nothing like a standard strategy which can be used by every SSSP. Please keep that in mind and - if you're interested - listen to my coachings where I'll try to make this plays and show which factors are key for our EV. And you have the possibility to discuss this with me and other players. I will also continue to post some hands about bluffresteals in this post. But don't start bluffing around without exactly knowing what you're doing!

Xarry's favourite songs (Week 10)

btw, if you add &fmt=18 to the link of an openend youtube video you'll get it in stereo and better video quality.

1) Trentemoeller - Moan

2) The Teenagers - Homecoming

3) Empire of the Sun - Walking on a dream

Adv SSS Coaching - 03/18

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$44,00:///////;BU$139,85:///////;[/tg]
1,00/2,00 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q♠, Q♣
Hero raises to $6,00, 6 folds, BU calls $6,00, 2 folds.

Flop: ($15,00) 8♦, J♥, A♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $10,00, BU calls $10,00.

Turn: ($35,00) T♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BU checks.

River: ($35,00) 8♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $10,00, BU calls $10,00.

Final Pot: $55,00

just like 30 hands from BU. so far 33VPIP, 22PFR. Thus we have a loose/aggressive tendency but we can't really say something about postflop play. Consequently I'll treat him as unkown, maybe slightly loose.

To start with I'll comment my play - after that I'll try to include remarks from the coaching listeners in order to maybe find a better play.

After my flop cbet is called I assume to often play against Ax, or Jx, sometimes gutshots like KT or KQ as well as some 98/97/QT or rarely medium pockets like 77 or 99. Overall I think we're still in front most of the time.
On the Turn I decided to try to play pot control. As well I try to keep worse hands than mine in the pot (which would often fold to another bet/push). Playing a checkraise AI would be possible as well as a direct push. What speaks for a checkraise is, that we can induce bets from weaker hands neverthless don't really have to fear a freecard. The direct push has the advantage that we don't have difficult spots after giving up the initiative. What shouldn't be neglected is our double belly buster which gives us at least 8 outs in case our push get called.
BU checks behind an the river is most of the time a rag. He will mostly check behind either hands with showdownvalue like Ax/pair+gutshot, monsters or if he's passive some trash hands. What I now tried is to make a thin valuebet against a J or a T. real rag like a 4 the valuebet is maybe also against some loose calls with an 8x hand. My plan works out and I get a call and come pretty cheap to the showdown.

lets sum up the pros and cons of my line:

Flop:

+ this is our standard line

- betsize is possibly to high (on a halfway dry board)

Turn:

+ we can induce bets from worse hands or keep them in the pot passively
+ a checkbehind from BU does mostly not risk dangerous freecards

- we give up initiative and have to decide how to play against the turnbet
- the looser/more passive our opponent is the less effect has our check
(we would get calls by worse hands anyway and on the other hand these hands won't bet if we check)

River:

+ with the small blockbet we can see the showdown for a cheap prize
+ worse hands will still call us often enough due to the small betsize

- every raise will put us into a very ugly spot
=> the pot odds are very good and we have SD value
- the blockbet could be a bit smaller like 8-9$
- the more aggressive our opponent is the less often the blockbet will work as planned

Well, there may be some other point I forgot... But I think I included the most important aspects. However I got the remark from the listeners in the channel why I cbet this flop so high. And yes, I think the bet is to high against unknown. If we knew we face a loose calling station I think betting this size is justified and also pushing the turn. As played like 8$ should be our standard cbetsize on this flop. The board does not provide many draws and with a smaller cbet there'll always be more worse hands calling our bet. This has effects on the whole hand: The Turnpot will be 31$ instead of 35$ and our remaining stack 30$ instead of 28$. As a result pushing directly gets less profitable since less worse hands will call and in case we're beat we're loosing more. On the other hand checkraising gets a bit more interesting since aggressive players will see more foldequity (our stack is bigger so we're less often commited to the pot). And on the river we can play b/fold - in case we think this line is appropriate - easier. Furthermore we would bet like 7-8$ which makes it easier to fold to a push if we face passive players.
But: I always try to choose my lines according to my opponent(s). The small flop cbet would be good against TAGs or simply tight opponents. However, I really want to emphasize that - imo - its better to play 2/3P cbet, push Turn against calling sations (or tendencially too loose opponents).

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$66,00:///////;BB$181,40:///////;[/tg]
1,00/2,00 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A♥, T♥
UTG calls $2,00, 4 folds, Hero raises to $9,00, 3 folds, BB calls $7,00, UTG folds.

Flop: ($21,00) 4♠, 5♣, 2♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($21,00) 3♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14,00, BB calls $14,00.

River: ($49,00) Q♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $30,00, BB folds.

Final Pot: $79,00

UTG limper: 37/13

BB: 19/4, fold to cbet 41%, checkraise Flop 17%

other interersting players??? well, we isolate in MP3 which is looser than standard thus we need reasons for doing so. Consequently we have to be inetrested in CO and BU stats. If they are tight nothing speaks against isolating since we will often succed in securing position.

CO: 11/8
BU: 10/9 (both SSSplayers)

Let's first discuss the Isolation raise. I already mentionend that the players left to act are important when you try to loosen up. Its good to have tight and passive opponents in position to you. That's the case. The blinds are important, too. With such a looser BB I would not recommend isolation with like 87s or 44 just because he will often call and we won't have big chances to win the hand postflop UI with cbets. ATs however has is a pretty strong hand against such a player. He will coldcall many weaker Aces and broadways, suited connectors and pairs - maybe even more. Overall we're however ahead (for testing this you can use the equilator and try to figure out ranges where you're starting to be in front, so where you just have a bit more than 50% equity against the estimated coldcalling range for the BB. finally you just have to evaluate wether this range is too loose or realistic (or even too tight). The two latter cases speak for isolation then)
Besides our hand and the players left to act its of course most important to consider the limper and his position. With a 37 VPIP and 13 PFR he'll limp rather loose - even in UTG. As well, he won't have to many strong hands in his limping range since with a 13 PFR he's rather aggressive. Overall I would isolate him with like A7s+, ATo+, KTs+, QJ+, and JT. You could even add more suited aces and maybe K9s or Q9s. If you have more information e.g. that he limp/calls tight or about his postflop play, e.g. that he's often folding to cbets you can also add some suited connectors like 76s+ and maybe lower pockets. If you like to know more about isolation then scroll back in this thread. I've written quite a lot about these plays in the past reviews.

The hand however develops a bit different than planned. The BB calls and the UTG limper Folds. Taking a look at BB Flop stats should tell us that we don't have much fold equity with a cbet. In addition he could often move us out of the pot with a checkraise - even though we've got good showdown value as well as remaining outs. With a small stack like potsize or a bit more we can play b/c or push dircetly. Against such a loose player this is pretty decent with our hand since there are many draws out and we can often still have the best hand with A-hi. But if you take a look at our stacksize you see that playing b/c or bet/push isn't profitable with like 6 to max. 10 outs (don't forget discounting in this hand. the spade A and T as well as the spade 3 and the other 3s aren't totally clean).
That's why I decided to check behind the flop in order to stay in the hand with our equity and to maybe extract much money from BB - who's definetely too loose - if we hit.
The turn is one of our outs. Maybe not the cleanest one but I'm willing to bet and push versus action. For doing so our opponents range is loose enough and our stack isn't too big (a bigstack could of course not go broke in this spot without good reads). Afterwards I think the turnbet was too small. We should really try to extract most money from flushdraws, pairs and hands like 77/88. Probably like 17$ would be fine and necessary since our remaining stack is still 43$ so BB has some implied odds. With the read that you face a calling station then potting the Turn is also possible.
Since I don't get action on the Turn I mostly put him on UI flushdraws, 5x, maybe 77/88 and of course some weak played Ax straits as well as in rare cases a strong flush or a 6-straight. But imo we can place another valubet on the River. Its also possible that he hit the Q (he could have called the Turn with the Queen of spades). Pushing directly however isn't that smart imo. It would scare away many weaker hands which maybe call a 30$ bet. Of course you could also make it like 25$ in order to get more calls. Without good reads its not possible to say which betsize is best here. If he checkraises I call, I could be crushed but with the river bet we commit our selfes for they are enough worse or equal hands which could do this play and it would really be a strange line to play a flush or 6x straight this way.

Xarry's favourite songs (Week 11)

btw, if you add &fmt=18 to the link of an openend youtube video you'll get it in stereo and better video quality.

1) Helge Schneider - Es gibt Reis Baby

sense-free humour. in english it would mean something like: we'll have rice for dinner, baby!

2) Stephan Bodzin - Planet Ypsilon

3) Simian Mobile Disco - Hustler

The song maybe known to most of you. imo the video(s) are at least as good at the song. however quite provocative.

another song from smd: I believe. with an awesome video, too:

hello, xarry!
even though I missed the last coaching, I would like to ask you something I planned to ask last week but forgot. do you happen to know where can I find a ready-made NL hud configured for SSS ? I keep updating mine with stats I find useful during my game but it's rather hard to do that since I must configure and reconfigure all sort of stuff starting from fonts and colors and up to deleting stats I found out I don't use ( hope you were able to understand the point I tried to make here)
looking forward for an answer

best of luck!
Michael

hmm, for which program, elephant? hm? pt3? poker ace?
I currently use a HUD for hm, but I think the stats in there are too much for SSS. I could send it to you, no problem but I can't guarantee it suits your purposes.
maybe you take a look into the forums. or you ask the question next coaching. so someone of the listeners will could be able to help you. thats mabye the best solution.
on the other hand: imo its important to put some effort into self made, self-customized HUDs since you're the one using them. of course thats much work and sometimes you maybe don't know what to use. but in the end the product should be very satisfying - at least for some time, until you redo it once again
nevertheless getting some inspirations from others HUDs is never wrong, but don't forget your own thoughts imo.

I hope I could help,
regards
xarry

forgot to mention that. I'm using PT3
I started mine from zero and all in all, along with the updates and hands in which I discover ore and more leaks among the stats from my hud, it took me about 3 days now to configure it and I think I only covered about 50 % of the process
problem is now I have more difficult decisions to take when it comes to adding more stats as it is hard to keep in mind what's the optimal position to put it, what fonts I used for that specific type of statistic or what color should be used for the different player ranges
I used elephant on some other platforms, but doesn't work on this one and whilst elephant had pretty good layouts for all types of game play, PT doesn't really help you in this way.
I think I'll try to manage this one the best I can and later on I'll try and purchase HM.....

thans for the help, I completely agree it's best to set it on your own as you're the one using it

my hud is 3 panels with this:
[VPIP AVG/PFR AVG/Limp/Call%/Hands]

[ATS AVG/RaiseBB2steal/FoldBB2steal/FoldSB2steal]

[Fold2Cbet/RaiseCbet/AggF flop/AggFrequency Flop]

+ Ive got Popup stats

hey xarry,
what do you think about isolating limpers with 4BB instead of 4,5bb?
especially if you isolate rather loose.

Does not make the pot so big at the flop...
Just a thought of me, what do you think?

good remark wuusaa!

I actually try to adapt my isolation-raisesize to the the limper/number of limpers / players behind me and my stacksize.

imo we should isolate with 3.5+1BB per limper against limper(s) who are limpcalling often, so all with a limp/call% of more than like 50%. thus we create preflop FE and get value for our hands (usually we don't isolate with speculative hands against those limpers)
players who just limp call 30% however I isolate wiht 3+1BB.
I also think that the bigger our stack is the more we should tend to raise 3.5+1. also having loose players left to act imo speaks for 3.5+1.

regards,
xarry

Adv SSS Coaching - 03/25

Last coaching Gerv asked me how I would play with JJ on a K75 rainbow board after my cbet gets checkraised.
Let's construct the hand:

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$40:///////;UTG$126,20:///////;[/tg]
1,00/2,00 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J♠, J♥
UTG calls $2,00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $9,00, 5 folds, UTG calls $7,00.

Flop: ($21,00) K♦, 7♣, 5♥ (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $11, UTG raises 33$, Hero?

The first thing you should do in this spot is calculating the pot odds you get for an all-in. The pot is 21$+11$ and 31$ which is our effective stack on the flop. We have 20$ left thus the pot odds are 63$:20$ = 3.15:1 which equals 24.1% break even equity. There will be like 3$ rake in the end. If take this into account, too the pot odds are 60$:20$ thus 3:1 and 25% break even equity. => This means we can call the checkraise if we assume to win the hand in more than 25%.
The following part however can't be calculated while playing. Thus I really recommend to exercise the following calculations as a theoretical work off-table. Only by doing so you'll gather the need experience and practice to quickly make correct decisions on the table. The tool to calculate this is the Equilator.

There are different ways to approach the problem. I'll mostly deal with it in the following manner:

- I try to create "hand groups" which I will probably face
- I determine the Euqity which I have against each of these groups
- I try to find realistic probabilities for each of these groups
- and finally assess the singel equities to get the total equity

Possible hand groups which could stand behind the checkraise and our equity against it (for creating a safety I always round down):

1: Top Pair, we have ~8.5% equity left
2: Two Pair, (K7, K5, 75), we have ~ 14% equity
3: Set, (77, 55), KK is unlikely so I count only 1 combo (KsKc, 77, 55), we have ~7.5%
4: Medium Pair 88-QQ, we have ~68.5% equity
5: Middle Pair + OC (A7, A5), we have ~ 79% equity
6: Draw, in this case I just count the OESDs 86 and 64 => 65% equity
7: Bluff: I assume 80% equity

These groups vary from board to board, always try to image all kind of possible - but realistic - holdings for your opponent. We could also take into account 22-44 and 66 and add them to the pair group. But overall I think I included the most important groups.
Assessing probabilites to these groups is more difficult and depends very much on the opponent. In this case the VPIP, PFR, limp% and limp/call% as well as fold to cbet, raise cbet, call cbet and checkraise flop are important stats which could help us.
It is also important to consider the action so far. This hand vs a UTG limp/caller will be pretty different to a hand where we steal from the BU and the BB defends passivley for example.
Ignoring possible reads I'll now try to give probabilities to these groups:

1: 50%
2: 5%
3: 5%
4: 20%
5: 5%
6: 10%
7: 5%

This is a pretty solid distribution. The board is dry, more drawy boards of cousre provide more draws ect. As well looser opponents will maybe have more draws/medium pairs/single pairs. On the other hand passive opponents will maybe only checkraise strong hands and mostly c/c pairs or draws. It is your part to always use all information you have in order to find out what is most likely. Of course thats pretty hard. But as I said above: examine this again and again and change the influencing parameters. Only by doing so you'll get a good feeling for such spots.

Finally we have to weight the groups and their equities with the probability in order to get the total Equity:

Total Equity = 0.5*0.085 + 0.05*0.14 + 0.05*0.075 + 0.2*0.685 + 0.05*0.79 + 0.1*0.65 + 0.05*0.80 = 0.33475 = ~33.4%

If our assumptions are correct our EV with Rake would be:

EV = 0.334*60$ - 0.666*20 = 6.72$

If we had this EV its a good decision to call.

I hope I gave a first insight into such calculations. I deliberately don't go further. For I think the learning effect is much higher if you do the work yourself - Honestly!
And make adjustments and modifications to the assumptions in order to get a feeling for the influence of the different crucial factors.

Xarry's favourite songs (Week 12)

btw, if you add &fmt=18 to the link of an openend youtube video you'll get it in stereo and better video quality.

minimal again!

1) Dominik Eulberg - Lotuseffekt

2) Gregor Tresher - A thousand nights

3) Monika Kruse - Changes of perception

New Chart Collection

I just reworked my chart collection. Feel free to test it - especially the calculators. Since I just made them there could still be some faults in there. If you have other suggestions/remarks about this also post them here please.

http://www.file-upload.net/download-1611537/SSS-Chart-Collection-reworked-by-xarry2.xls.html

Here are some illustrating samples:

Hand 1:

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;UTG+1$200:///////;Hero$40:///////;[/tg]
1/2 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A♣, K♦. CO posts a blind of $2,00.
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $10,00, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $40,00 (All-In), 6 folds.

Final Pot: $55,00

EV-Calculator:

Pot:
We take a look at the potsize exactly before we act. The total Pot consists out of UTG+1s raise, the CO poster and the blinds.
=> 10$ + 2$ + 1$ + 2$ = 15$
=> everytime all players fold we win 15$ directly

effective stack:
this is pretty easy in this case: 40$

Deadmoney:
We're preflop thus the deadmoney preflop is interesting for us. It is 2$ from the CO-Poster. I don't count the blinds because I assume they are compensated by the rake (which is mostly 3$ on NL 200). If the blinds are more than the rake the difference would of course count as deadmoney.

Equity:
Since the Equity isn't a static parameter we have to make assumptions which are as realistic as possible. It depends on the callingrange. The looser the callingrange becomes the better is our Equity in case we get called (and the other way round). In this case I assume ~40% Equity which would e.g. be correct if UTG+1 calls us with AK, JJ+. Understanding of how this variable changes with different influencing factors is essential for making correct assumptions. But: The proof of the pudding is in the eating!

Foldequity:
Also the Foldequity has to be assumed. By altering this parameter (maybe together with the Equity sicne both are dependent) you can get a feeling for its influence on the EV!
I assume 60% FE. Thus, since he calls with AK/JJ+ (3%) his intial openraising range should be ~7.5% to make our estimation correct.

Blinds:
= 0 since we're not in the Blinds and since we didn't invest any money so far.

Our EV with these estimations is: 6.12$

FE Calculator:

The assumptions stay the same and we get a Foldequity for EV=0 of: 32.43%

Test it in the upper EV-Calculator. You should get 0!

Hand 2:

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)       
[tg]Hero$200:///////;BB$1,055:///////;[/tg]
5/10 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with A♦, 5♦
6 folds, BU raises to $40,00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $200,00 (All-In)

The formula would be:

EV = 55$*0.4 + 0.6[(200$+12$)*0.35 - (200$-10$)*0.65] = -7.58$

Parameters:

Pot: 55$
eff. Stack: 200$
DM: 12$, in fact 15$ but I already discounted 3$ rake
Equity: 0.35
FE: 0.4
Blind/Bet: we are in the BB, thus Blind = 10$, this is important since we can't loose more than 190$ with our move - we already have 10$ less in our stack than at the start of the betting round.

The Calculator gives us:
=> EV = -7.58$

We make loss with these estimations. Which FE would we need in order to be breakeven then?

The calculator gives us: 47.27%

Hand 3:

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

$1/$2 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

Known players:
[tg]UTG2$205.25:///////;MP1$159.00:///////;MP2$200.00:///////;MP3$200.00:///////;CO$200.00:///////;BU(Hero)$47.00:///////;SB$216.40:///////;BB$283.45:///////;UTG1$224.50:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BU with T:h, A:d.
6 folds, Hero raises to $6, SB folds, BB raises to $19, Hero raises to $47(All-In), BB calls $28.00.

Be careful with this hand. Its important to take a close look at the defnitions for every field:

Pot:
Potsize right at the point! where you act => 26$

eff.Stack:
effective Stack at the start! of the respective betting round => 47$

Deadmoney:
Deadmoney right at the point! where you act => 7$ (6$ through our raise and 1$ from the SB)
If you want to take rake into account I recommend to do it in the deadmoney field. thus with rake it would be 7$-3$ (3$ rake on NL 200)

Equity:
In this hand BB had a resteal of 18%. Taken this restealrange ATo has 49.4% equity.

Foldequity:
not much but assuming 5% takes into account some bluffs ect.

Blind/Bet:
Amount of money you've invested after the start! of the betting round (Preflop e.g Blinds/Raises, Postflop e.g. Bets ect.)

Be careful here, too. even though we'Re not in the blinds this value is not 0. we have made a raise before and thus this value is 6$

The full formula with rake and FE would be:

EV = 26$*0.05 + 0.95[(47$+7$-3$)*0.494 - (47$-6$)*0.506] = ~5.53$

and the calculator gives us exactly the same

Hand 4:

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/pfr/af/wts/ats/foldbb/w$sd;Hero$40:///////;BU$126,20:///////;[/tg]
1,00/2,00 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J♠, J♥
Hero raises to $7,00, 6 folds, BU calls $7,00, 2 folds

Flop: ($17,00) K♦, 7♣, 5♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $11, Hero raises 33$ (All-In)

Let's not discuss about line of this hand Even though it is sometimes a good play

I'm interested in the minimum FE this move needs to be EV=0:

Pot:
17$+11$ = 28$

effective stack:
at the start of the betting roung, i.e. in our case at the flop we have 33$

Equity:
I assume 20% Equity against BU overall callingrange

Deadmoney:
Well, Deadmoney at the point where we act: equals the pot at the flop which is 17$

Blind/Bet:
= 0 since we did not invest any money after the start of the betting round. (The last hand will deal with this case)

Thus the minimum FE we need to be breakeven is: 36.94%

Hand 5:

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG gary5551 ($596.45)
UTG+1 TOAFK ($400.00)
MP1 Borat Saghdiyav ($1124.80)
MP2 steelwheel1972 ($414.50)
MP3 eekkll ($508.70)
CO fredb1954 ($375.30)
BTN Hero ($489.00)
SB joels_dad ($860.20)
BB donkeyboy888 ($352.80)

Pre-flop: ($6, 9 players) Hero is BTN 8♣ 7♣
2 folds, Borat Saghdiyav raises to $14, 3 folds, Hero calls $14, 2 folds

Flop: 6♣ Q♠ J♣ ($34, 2 players)
Borat Saghdiyav bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: 9♦ ($82, 2 players)
Borat Saghdiyav checks, Hero bets $55, Borat Saghdiyav raises to $150, Hero raises to $451, Borat Saghdiyav calls $301

River: 9♠ ($984, 2 players)

[Results Hidden]

This is a BSS hand btw...

How much FE does Hero need to be breakeven?

Pot:
82$+55$+150$, thats all Hero can win if Borat folds.

eff. Stack:
at the start of the betting round (i.e. the Turn) Hero has 489$-14$-24$=451$ (thats what Hero can win from Borat in case he calls his push)

Equity:
since Hero has like 15 Outs we can definetely assume 30% remaining equity in case he gets called

Deadmoney:
the DM consists of 82$ Turn Pot and the 55$ Hero invested with a bet. => 137$.

Blind/Bet:
Hero has made a bet after the start of the betting round => 55$. This money already belongs to the pot. (Thus the money Hero can loose in case he gets called is 451$ - 55$)

The full formula would be:

EV = 0 = 287$*FE + (1-FE)[(451$+137$)*0.3 - (451$-55$)*0.7]

and now solving for FE:

0 = 287$*FE + (1-FE)[176.4$ - 277.2$]
0 = 287$*FE - 100.8$ +100.8$*FE
100.8$ = 387.8$FE

=> FE = 100.8$/387.8$ = 25.99%

Lets test:

EV = 287$*0.2599 + 0.7401[(451$+137$)*0.3 - (451$-55$)*0.7] = -0.011 (the rest is due to rounding before)

And finally into the calculator:

=> 25.99%

Nice

Adv SSS Coaching - 04/01

Last coaching we had the following spot:

Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)       
[tg]Hero$200:///////;BB$1,055:///////;[/tg]
5/10 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BU with A♦, K♦
6 folds, Hero raises to $30,00, 1 fold, BB raises to $200,00, Hero calls (All-In)

For us the hand isn't pretty difficult to play. However the hand which BB showed to me inspired me for this post. He had K8o and I wondered wether his play is +EV. So let's assume we're in the BB and face a BU steal. Is such a push profitable for us???
For evaluating this we can use the minimum FE calculator which you can find in my chart collection (link in the post above).

Before doing that I just found out that there's a small fault in my calculators. Which only gets important when we're in the blinds and are preflop. in my formula I use eff. stack 2 times, one time if we win, the other time if we loose. If we'Re however with an effective stack of 20BB in the BB the first eff. stack part stays 20BB, the 2nd part, which is the one where we loose is however just 19BB. currently I couldn't fix it and I won't find the time to do it today. So stay tuned for an update. for this post I'll use the formula as given. Thus we create a safety margin which isn't that bad.

Fixed! and link is updated!

Pot:
We need the pot which can be won preflop (if you take a look at the formula you'll see tha "pot" equals the amount we win through foldequity.
This is: 30$ from his steal, 5$ from the SB and 10$ from the BB.

effective stack:
since the BU has to bring 200$ if he calls us the effective stack is 200$ (we always need the stack at the start of the betting round...)

Equity:
I'll assume 30% in average which is my default assumption. of course it can be higher against loose calling ranges.

Deadmoney:
we have 15$ blinds, I'll consider rake too and thus 12$ will be left.

EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – (eff.Stack*(1-Equity))]

EV = 45$*FE + (1-FE)[(200$+12$)*0.3 - 200$*0.7]

The right formula would be:

EV = 45$*FE + (1-FE)[(200$+12$)*0.3 - 190$*0.7]

Well, the 1st formula solved for FE is: 62.93%. and don't forget it would be a bit less if you use 190$ (60,66%)
This means we could resteal K8o if we think we have more than this foldequity. In such spots I really recommend to add at least 5% safety. This means If I need 63% I would just resteal with 68%+ FE. The reason is simply that with just like 64% we would have about 0.13BB+ as EV. However in spots where evaluating the FE is neccessary you can never achieve a accuracy of +/-1%. even +/-5% is easily possible as a variance for our estimations. So it would be pretty stupid to risk your whole stack for 0.13BB if you can easily run -EV when your estimation isn't correct.

Let's assume BU steals 40% against us which he could easily do since we're playing SSS and are tight. we have 68% FE if he just calls us with 32%. So his calling range should be 12.8% at max.
Thats something like this: 55+,A6s+,KQs,A9o+,KQo
Against looser players or players where we don't have much credit due to aggressive history in blindbattles we can never reach this value. However against players who steal loose but give us credit this is possible. And against this range we would have 31.5% with K8o so our EV would be: 8.13BB.
Play with these calculations in order to get a feeling for these spots! What I wanted to show isn't that we should resteal pretty much if our opponent steals loose and gives us credit. Staying on the value side is always right - but, in some spots you can get a bit more EV if mix in some FE plays.
SCs like 54s+, 53s+, 74s+ or 95s+ run better than K8o for example. also 87o.
I'll soon fix the calculator problems and then you can start calculating! I hope you understand why I don't want to give you "rules" according to which you can make such moves. This wouldn't work. Therefore the only way to nevertheless find some "rules" is trying it at home! I recommend it pretty often the last weeks but its simply true.

regards,
xarry

Xarry's favourite songs (Week 13)

btw, if you add &fmt=18 to the link of an openend youtube video you'll get it in stereo and better video quality.

1) Fleet Foxes - Mykonos

2) David E. Sugar - Although You May Laugh

3) Beni - My love sees you