Today I want to discuss my "difficult" bubble hands, because i think a lot of beginners would make big mistakes here
No 1:
No Limit Holdem Tournament
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
CO LucasMorais (5840)
BTN p0wnorizeD (9800)
SB zhangoi (1100)
BB Hero (3260)
Blinds: 300/600
Pre-flop: (900, 4 players) Hero is BB A♦ K♦
LucasMorais raises to 1800, 2 folds, Hero ?
So far my opponent was tight in my eyes ... which can be "wrong" because of the situation we were in.
Anyway, what could he raise here? he cant fold against me or the shortstack anymore. So its pretty likely that it is at least an A or a pocket pair
Although we are dominating a lot of aces and we are flipping in a few spots we have to FOLD here... How come?
The problem is the shortstack in this hand who already folded and will be down to 800chips (~1bb). The chance that he busts before we do is pretty high. Even when he is able to put his chips in the middle as a slight favorite (60:40 e.g. when he is holding an top 30% hand and his opponent got any 2 cards) he has to win that one and another one against me when he is pushing out of the sb (so it will be any to against any 2 ... should be 50:50)
The chance that he wins both is 0,6*0,5= 0,3
so his "bustequity" is 70%
our equity to win the hand
against
another A: 70%
a pocket pair: 48%
two live cards: 65%
and we are behind against AA and KK
the chance that someone else at the table bust is 30% and if we call and we are up against another ace which is the best possible situation then it is up to us to bust in 30%
so it would be breakeven when its a good situation to make that call but against any other card combination we dont want to make that call
-> fold
and to use some more help
SNG wizz tells me that its breakeven when he is raising/pushing (because he is comitted) 30% of his hand and we have a small edge when he is raising more but we lose a lot of money when he is raising less ...
nash without FGS told me to call with JJ+ only
nash with FGS told me to call with JJ+ and AKs ...
in my eyes the fold should be ok then 
No2 :
No Limit Holdem Tournament
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
CO p0wnorizeD (9800)
BTN zhangoi (800)
SB Hero (2660)
BB LucasMorais (6740)
Blinds: 300/600
Pre-flop: (900, 4 players) Hero is SB J♠ J♣
p0wnorizeD goes all-in 9800, 1 fold, Hero ?
in a way the situation is almost the same the only difference is that our hand is way better against pocket pairs and its less likely that we are flipping against overcards (only KQ, AQ and AK would flip)
so very often we have 70% against just one overcard
we have 80% against smaller pockets and two undercards
90% if he is pushing a Jrag
but the situation is still not clear!
so we need help by sng wizz and the icm trainer
sng wizz:
if the bb is good and knows that i am just calling with TT+ then he will probably just call with AK, QQ+
then our break even point is when the bigstack is pushing more than 55%
in my eyes he was good enough to push that lose, so we have another argument to call (the breakeven point for BB-overcalls is whe he is overcalling 3% of his hands)
3% means JJ+ and AK... would he overcall that tight? on an 11$ sng?
i think the tendency is that both players are a bit looser...
i thought the bigstack would push about 80% but then i does not matter how loose the bb overcalls the situation would always be +ev when i am calling there with JJ (well, the breakeven point for an overcall would be when having 6000 chips instead of 2xxx)
so, sng wizz told me to call with TT+ in this situation
nash without FGS tells me to call with 99+ and with FGS it wants me to call with TT+
as we can see those few people in the chat and the coach himself have been wrong when folding JJ in this situation ♦
i hope it was not too boring, but i want you to see, that there are some pretty difficult decisions on the bubble and why JJ is way better than AKs in this situation
regards
