Relax, I am not going to defend actual All-in EV for FL (or should I... ).
I will try to explain again what I had once said in the Spanish forums (and they all told me it was a hideous idea, but I didn't understand why actually
). Please keep in mind this idea is pretty rusty and probably completely worthless, but maybe worth taking a look. I'll translate and quote exactly what I said then:
original de JLeitmotiv
OK, today I was playing and all of a sudden this hand came along:
Spoiler
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.20 Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q
Q
MP folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO callsFlop: (7.5 SB) 5
7
7
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO callsTurn: (4.7 BB) 8
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO callsRiver: (6.7 BB) K
(2 players)
CO bets, Hero callsResults:8.7 BB pot (0.4 BB rake)
Final Board: 57
7
8
K
![]()
CO showed K4
and won 8.4 BB (4.3 BB net)
Hero mucked QQ
and lost (-4 BB net)
Of course my first reaction was to insult from the roof tops as soon as he donked me on the river and freaking fish praying for the river call flop with backdoor gutshot and one overcard please I cannot believe it and that donk for heaven's sake, how come he didn't even try to x/r me so at least i could feel guilty somehow raising preflop only because you saw a brodway and the other card with the same color (Translator's Note: For heaven's sake I was such a nit) i can't believe this and so on...
Afterwards, I remembered that NL players at least can take a look at their all-in EV and get an idea of how much is Fortuna hammering upon him. And then I began thinking about how do they calculate all-in EV in NL.
My equity against CO is, per street
PF: 68.6%
F: 83.9%
T: 84.1%Therefore, I thought that we could do this analysis to check our SD winnings. For instance, for this case,
Preflop I have 68.6% equity, so I have, from the pot
$0.75*0.686 = $0.5145
Flop I have 83.9% equity, so I have, from the pot
$0.95*0.839 = $0.7971
Turn I have 84.1% equity:
$1.35*0.841 = $1.1354
and I rivered 0% equity:
$1.75*0= $0
My questions would be, with this calculations, can anyone think of what can we do that resembles All-in EV from NL? What I had thought about was an "All-in EV" per street calculationSpoiler
PF: there are $0.75 in the pot, where $0.3 are mine; my equity is 68.6%, therefore
PF: $0.75*0.686 - $0.3 = +$0.2145
F: $0.2 added to the pot, my equity is 83.9%, therefore
F: $0.2*0.839 - $0.1 = +$0.0678
T: $0.4 added to the pot, my equity is 84.1%, therefore
T: $0.4*0.841 - $0.2 = +$0.1364
R: $0.4 added to the pot, my equity is 0%, therefore
R: $0.4*0 - $0.2 = -$0.2
all in all, i would get something like:
PF+F+T+R=+$0.2187
Obviously, this is assuming that we have complete knowledge (pretty much like All-in EV calculations though), but I think this could be a nice tool to analyze certain situations and scenarios and it can give us a closer value to our true winrate, with less variance. What do you think about that?
It was not until recently that I stumbled upon this paper that I thought again about this.
DISCLAIMER: I know that this is flawed in many different things, like not considering Fold Equity and such. Obviously my point isn't to completely strip variance out of poker, simply trying to reduce it a bit without adding any bias to the mean value of the distribution.
tl;dr: Do you think All-in EV per street in LHE can be helpful reducing the variance of our expected SD winnings?
