Big Hands: How much should they return?

Waiboy

Joined: 18.09.2008

06.08.2009, 12:06 0

I'm copying a post from my blog, because I'd like some decent feedback on the performance of big hands from other players.

By big hands I mean QQ+, AQ+ - ignore the fact JJ > AQ.. I couldn't be bothered picking them all out and PT3 conveniently lists the Ax hands together.

Since 1 July (approx 12.5k hands) my WTS/W$SD is 38.4/55.35 and I've run at -2.61BB/100. The WTS is a little high so possibly I'm not folding beaten hands often enough in these big pots so I figured I check how much value I'm getting from this premium range.

Hand, Times dealt, Win %age, WTS, W$SD, BB/hand

AA: 68, 72%, 75%, 59%, 1.66BB

AKs: 37, 70%, 29%, 50%, 0.48BB

AKo: 102, 50%, 52%, 46%, -0.16BB

AQs: 42, 48%, 56%, 52%, 0.49BB

AQo: 130, 47%, 54%, 52%, 0.16BB

KK: 48, 63%, 72%, 55% 1.11BB

QQ: 63, 70%, 68%, 55%, 1.15BB

I'm not 100% sure, but I'm guessing this is pretty sick. Especially when AA which is, at worst, 80% to win pre flop. And QQ winning more than KK and only slightly lower than AA. AKo is clearly being very badly played. :f_mad:

And I guess sample size is small, but I'm trying to determine the extent to which my losses might be attributable to variance and how much to bad play. I'm assuming for the sake of argument that I'm not overplaying these hands, or folding them incorrectly as there can't be too many situations where this might happen over this sample size.

Yes, I know this assumption could be a little too much because I'm a muppet, but I prefer to think I'm more Scooter than Gonzo. :f_eek:

Sooo.. how do these win rates compare to you other folks out there in PS.com FL land? Anything stick out or suggest itself from a look at these stats?

"...and then I was like "?", and they were like "..." and then it all came down to the cheese making method. Needless to say

8 replies

AugustusCaesar

Joined: 24.05.2008

Posts: 375

06.08.2009, 12:21 0

Well 68 hand with AA is nothing .. You can make no conclusion from that

:spade: SNG Researching Blog :spade:

:diamond: Augustus' SNG & MTT Blog :diamond:

redskwerl

Joined: 04.03.2008

Posts: 1,026

06.08.2009, 17:15 0

Sample is about 130k hands from a bunch of different limits that I played this yr. Note that I only filtered out HU hands, so this is 3-10 handed (and most of it 4-6).

AA won:83.4% 2.55BB/100 wts/w$s:62%/73%
KK won:77.6% 1.74BB/100 wts/w$s:59%/74%
QQ won:73.6% 1.54BB/100 wts/w$s:62%/61%
JJ won:66.8% 1.14BB/100 wts/w$s:58%/56%
TT won:63.0% 0.71BB/100 wts/w$s:58%/52%
(~580 hand sample)

AKs won:60.5% 0.51BB/100 wts/w$s:58%/48%
AQs won:61.5% 0.76BB/100 wts/w$s:54%/53%
(~385 hand sample)

AKo won:61.7% 0.56BB/100 wts/w$s:58%/50%
AQo won:60.8% 0.34BB/100 wts/w$s:54%/48%
(~1160 hand sample)

Waiboy

Joined: 18.09.2008

Posts: 4,877

07.08.2009, 01:19 0

Originally posted by AugustusCaesar
Well 68 hand with AA is nothing .. You can make no conclusion from that

Hey AC!

I'm trying to determine the extent that variance may have impacted on my short term results, so the small sample size is exactly the issue. I want to see how these results compare to long term (and therefore statistically more reliable) win rates.

@ redskwerl: Thanks dude! :f_biggrin:

Just a quick calc on difference in value per hand shows some significant value loss...

Anyone else with some stats to help beef up the sample?

"...and then I was like "?", and they were like "..." and then it all came down to the cheese making method. Needless to say

_Anonymous_

24.02.2010, 22:28 0

My stats: I'm a mediocre player too bored to play less than 20 tables...

CoreySteel

Joined: 25.10.2006

Posts: 3,347

25.02.2010, 15:59 0

20 tables of Fixed Limit?

_Anonymous_

26.02.2010, 19:54 0

filtered for 3-6 handed.
90772 hands in total.
WTSD 38.7%
W$SD 51.7%

Hand, Times dealt, Win %age, WTS, W$SD, BB/hand
AA: 398, 83.4%, 62.6%, 71.8%, 2.25BB
AKs: 293, 58.7%, 48,0%, 51.2%, 0.51BB
AKo: 856, 62.1%, 51.2%, 58.0%, 0.68BB
AQs: 299, 61.9%, 49.6%, 61.2%, 0.79BB
AQo: 830, 57.5%, 49.5%, 51.0%, 0.25BB
KK: 397: 75.8%, 60.5%, 64.3%, 1.7BB
QQ: 409, 69.2%, 64.0%, 57.9%, 1.24BB

_Anonymous_

26.02.2010, 20:00 0

Something I noticed is that you bring QQ,KK,AA a lot more to showdown than me.

chuongdk

Joined: 22.03.2009

Posts: 210

27.02.2010, 15:44 0

from my 120k hands,

[Closed] Big Hands: How much should they return?