I today did some math about sb vs SHC and the result was quite interesting:
We can actually raise any two in the SB if he only defends the 12% that SHC would allow him if we lose less than 5,5 big bets when he doesn't fold.
Calculation:
0,88*(0,75bb) = 0,66bb
0,88 is the percentage with which villain folds and 0,75 sb is the win SB+BB
0,66bb-0,12x = 0 // calculating when it is break even
x = -5,5bb
is this correct and is the number of -5,5bb realistic?
i think it is easily especially given that very often they will fold the best hand ( a high) when we make a continuation bet on the flop.
So if you can spot someone who plays that tightly in the BB the raise any two ought to be profitable. ♦
Thoughts appreciated.
edit: i made a little mistake which makes the decision even easier!
