Poker Stars, Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8
8
2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO calls
Flop: (5.5 SB) T 2 7
(2 players)
CO bets, Hero calls
Turn: (3.8 BB) 8 (2 players)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls
River: (11.8 BB) Q
(2 players)
CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls
Final Board: T 2 7 8 Q
Opponent 35/17/5.5 over 52 hands
At most a very mild overplay. He does raise preflop, making me think he has few TTT in his range. He could also have a weirdly played straight that beats you once the turn comes. Otherwise, there are hands you beat he could have, worse sets and two pairs. If you slow down, slow down on river.
It is overplayed right away on the Turn. This is a general rule you should keep in mind. Whenever you have a really strong madehand like midset but your Opponent is first of all reasonable and secondly The boardstructure allows 2 straights being possible for your opponent to have. 2 straights means on this board J9 and 96 with the full range of 32 combinations. So being this said you need a strong counterweight to justify even capping after his 3bet. 96 and J9 can be fully in his range. Now think about his worse pairs he might have. 77 22 T7 T8 are reasonable hands for him to have. But if you count those combos and sum them up, you'll quickly figure that you don't even close to 32 combos.
It's the Same Situation if - lets say - you called an openraise from the Button with AA and the flop comes AKQ and you checkraise the Flop and your opponent raises the Turn. You might first think it's an easy 3bet but its not since you already have blocked 3 times AAA and so a hand like JT becomes too likely. So it's just a bet/call and its similiar in this situation.
After his 3bet 96 and J9 becomes too likely to cap the Turn and at latest after you did cap the Turn and though he donked in again on the River => Just call! And being in his shoes you'd checkraise the River but not donk.
Further suggestions / questions?
If you say the opponent is both reasonable and that he has 16 combos of 96 in his range and that taking the donking line with all 32 gutshot straight draws add up to 32 combos (totally without discount), then I don't agree.
I'd firstly discount this to 20 combos preflop, then some more due to the flop donk. Shutting down at the turn 3-bet is very conservative.
