Originally posted by gnananandan
Originally posted by Boomer2k10
Originally posted by gnananandan
5.Poker Stars, $3.29 Buy-in (5/10 blinds) Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Preflop: Hero is BB with 8
7
SB raises, Hero calls
Flop: (4 SB) J
5 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets, Hero calls
Turn: (3 BB) Q
(2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks
Do you really suggest to Check/Raise Flop here with a gutshot& 8 high?
Wont It be better if i had a BDFD in that spot for that semibluff raise?
River: (3 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets, SB calls
On this Flop i got a gutshot, No BDFD and two overcards to 5& 4.
Against any random hand Equity is 35.72%
Outs- 3.5 for gutshot, 2 may be for the Cards. 5.5(Did i calculate correct?)So 1:7.5 odds. I get 1:5 pot odds & its a Fold. But Its a Call Equity wise right??
And the Turn is a bad card for me i guess. Equity drops to 24.5%.
if he had bet the Turn, Is it a easy Fold??
Check raise flop!!
As you've said you've probably got 30-35% equity with this hand and you have 8-high, not really a better chance to bluff checkraise heads up than here
Do you really suggest to Check/Raise Flop here with a gutshot& 8 high?
Wont It be better if i had a BDFD in that spot for that semibluff raise?
If you check-raise for value here, then the range you do it with should be balanced with a bluff check-raise range.
In the simplest model, he is getting 7:1 for a call, so the chances that you bluff should be 1 in 7. That is, for each 6 check-raises for value, check-raise 1 hand for bluffing. This is roughly 14% bluffs. (He should, in this model, be folding 28%, not 14% (2:5 against, because you invest 2 to win 5 with a bluff) - or he'd be exploitable, but that is another story.)
Taking liberties in guessing you ranges (you have a 3-betting range preflop, but flat-called), and taking more liberties in guessing what you'd raise for value (pair of fives with overcard kicker or better), then if you stick to flush-draws with no showdown value, open-ended straight draws, and gut-shots with backdoor flush potential, then you certainly have enough (too many actually in this model) bluffs already (76% value, 24% bluff).
In other models (e.g. "stacking bluffs"), you are supposed to bluff more. But it is easy to begin overbluffing. If you blindly bluff with every hand with decent equity, but no showdown value, then you are practically guaranteed to bluff too much.
Other factors that would change the equations is if you (like many) flat-call or fold in the big blind. Then your value range gets wider, and consequently your bluff range should get wider too. But in your case, I'd give you right. If you bluff with 87 with no BDFD, then there is a risk that you bluff too much.
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But, Boomer is not wrong. You have 8 high and shitty equity. If you play, then a check-raise is better than calling because people fold too much, which you can exploit.
