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[Closed] too weak river fold?

3 Posts
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nemiren
Joined: 28.09.2009

Known players:
[tg]Position:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;SB:74/55/9/0.9/51/0/0/55;MP3:213/34/8/0.7/42/11/67/53;[/tg]
0.1/0.2 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.90 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is BB with J♥, J♠
MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero raises, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 8♥, 6♠, 2♥ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) Q♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 folds, SB calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 9♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB


2 replies
Epitaph
Joined: 29.07.2006

theres no way you can fold this. yes hes a donk but the straight with TJ is highly unlikely and the spiked fd on the turn as well... he might as well c/r a busted fd, a 9 etc etc... bet/call river.


Boomer2k10
Joined: 22.09.2010

This is a pretty simple fold

The guy is 55/0 with a 55% WTSD, a classic calling station. There is no way he's pulling a super sophisticated bluff here. If I was up against someone truly world class, who I think could turn 34 and 45 and busted Hearts or low 1 pairs into super sick river bluffs, I may consider calling but even then it'd be sick.

75 got there, backdoor flush got there, random 2 pairs etc, we don't even beat top pair. We're getting 9.5-1 to pay off here, I think he's probably bluffing this 1 time in about 50 at absolute most, the only hope we have is if he's raising the river with worse for value and I just don't see that happening.

You may have a read that says otherwise, if so go with it, but in the vast vast majority of cases vs a raise here you're absolute toast.