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[6max] River decision

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Elertar
Joined: 12.08.2011

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2769956
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $4.78
SB: $4.32
BB: $11.50
Hero (UTG): $5.62
MP: $5.86
CO: $1.51

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with Q :spade: Q :heart:
Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.15, SB calls $0.13, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.50) 9 :diamond: 3 :diamond: 4 :spade: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.36, BTN calls $0.36, SB folds

Turn: ($1.22) T :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.77, BTN calls $0.77

River: ($2.76) Q :diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.75, Hero?

BTN is a 19/12/1.7 over 250 hands. Flop fold to cbet 60% (5 samples). 15% river bet (13 samples). 63% W$SD no allin (16 samples).

What to do here? My guess of his range is flushes and lower sets. Maybe KJ... Pot odds are 28%. According to my Equilab simulation, without KJ in his range it's a call. With KJ in his range it's a close fold. Thanks in advance.


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7 replies
Ales851
Joined: 16.07.2012

Problem is that he probably doesn´t have lower sets here because he should raise it on previous streets on such a wet board. Also I don´t see any reasonable bluffs in his range because almost everything complete. I hate to fold top set but I believe this is the time to do it.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

You made this decision tough by checking otr. He might have tried to bluff you out "on such wet board". What was the purpose of checking? You dont expect him to bluff, do u? 40-50% psb otr, no worse hands will call higher bet, u fold if raised.


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Ales851
Joined: 16.07.2012

I didn´t notice that villain hasn´t full stack so it´s true that his calling range can be wider. Still against which hands we´re valuebeting and which hands try to bluff against us?
Do you agree that he probably doesn´t have worse sets and 2P but has plenty of flushes? Also I don´t expect him to turn something like 2nd pair to bluff on this stakes.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Originally posted by Ales851
Do you agree that he probably doesn´t have worse sets and 2P but has plenty of flushes? .

We're propably behind against his betting range versus missed cbet, i agree, tho he hasn't full stack, it's nl5 we're talking about, there's strong likelihood villain's gonna take advantage of the board structure.


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Elertar
Joined: 12.08.2011

Thank you guys for your answers. Very interesting.

Originally posted by Berezovaya
What was the purpose of checking?

I checked for pot control because flush and straight completed. Against an aggresive opponent I'd have considered to take your line, but I didn't expect this villain to be bluffing most of the time and decided to check/(convince myself to)fold to any reasonable sized bet. But I like your advice, in the future I'll consider this "blocking" bet on the river more often.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Against this guy I guess we could bet/fold. We could probably do it even if we don't hit the set on the river. When we checked and he bets... I don't see much worse hands betting. Sets are raising the flop or turn and 9x is not betting the river.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I think we can make a small bet here and fold vs a raise as FD and SD complete.


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