[Closed] AA 200bb deep

Only reasonable flush I can see in villains range is KdQd and then he has sets (88,TT,JJ). You need 27.5% to call and you get 22%.

So even if you have Ad you should fold this. You don't have enough equity to call and by raising you have 0% fold equity.
Also according to Baluga theorem you should fold here with less than 2 pair.

Couldnt we include QQ/KK with a diamond here as well? (he had none of the hands you mentioned btw :f_ugly:)

Well you 3bet pre. He should have 4bet at least KK and sometimes he could 4bet QQ too. Then you bet quite big OTF and OTT. I think it would be stupid to raise your already big turn bet when flush completes with those hands. So no I would not include those hands in thinking/unknown players range

If he had none of those, did he have JT or 22 or some lower flush? After 50 hands that guy doesn't look so fishy, if he had complete trash he must be on tilt

Originally posted by la55i
Only reasonable flush I can see in villains range is KdQd and then he has sets (88,TT,JJ). You need 27.5% to call and you get 22%.

So even if you have Ad you should fold this. You don't have enough equity to call and by raising you have 0% fold equity.
Also according to Baluga theorem you should fold here with less than 2 pair.

May have KQs, QJs , JTs ... but this is not changing anything.
This guy may even surprise us with even rapped SCs .

I would xc turn maybe.

Originally posted by Smashie
Couldnt we include QQ/KK with a diamond here as well? (he had none of the hands you mentioned btw :f_ugly:)

KK-yes.
QQ-no.

He indeed showed up with JT. I guess we could c/c turn there. Idunno

Ahaha. I got it.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by Smashie
Couldnt we include QQ/KK with a diamond here as well? (he had none of the hands you mentioned btw :f_ugly:)

KK-yes.
QQ-no.

Imo vice versa. KK he will 3bet like always.

Originally posted by Smashie
He indeed showed up with JT. I guess we could c/c turn there. Idunno

Well that was quite surprising. I knew it is possible but it would make much much more sense for him to raise sets than 2pair in this spot.

Originally posted by nitrol
I would xc turn maybe.

I prefer betting but xc is not bad.

I am never betting that turn.. such an awful turn.. check/call is a lot better, if he ever floats you can get value from bluffs and if the river blanks I am most likely calling there too.. I expect a bluff to continue on most, if not all rivers seeing as the hand he would be repping for value on both turn and river is a flush and I don't see him having THAT many flushes. I guess he could have JT or gotten a straight on the turn as well, but I would be fine with at the very least c/c turn, evaluate river.

Check call is ok if we get odds to call. If this turn is so bad you wouldn't ever bet that, should you call villains bet then? Flushes and straights are possible and you would rather call 2 streets than bet once and fold to a raise?

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by Smashie
Couldnt we include QQ/KK with a diamond here as well? (he had none of the hands you mentioned btw :f_ugly:)

KK-yes.
QQ-no.

Imo vice versa. KK he will 3bet like always.

Imo we should 3b KK so we can add KKd here.
QQ we should not 3b pre, so we should not have them here.

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by Smashie
He indeed showed up with JT. I guess we could c/c turn there. Idunno

Well that was quite surprising. I knew it is possible but it would make much much more sense for him to raise sets than 2pair in this spot.

Pffff. Read my post and see how surprising this is...

Originally posted by NatRPheM
I am never betting that turn.. such an awful turn.. check/call is a lot better, if he ever floats you can get value from bluffs and if the river blanks I am most likely calling there too.. I expect a bluff to continue on most, if not all rivers seeing as the hand he would be repping for value on both turn and river is a flush and I don't see him having THAT many flushes. I guess he could have JT or gotten a straight on the turn as well, but I would be fine with at the very least c/c turn, evaluate river.

Hurrayyyyy. Of course we should be xc.
All draws completed and we bet cause we have a re-draw...

Originally posted by la55i
Check call is ok if we get odds to call. If this turn is so bad you wouldn't ever bet that, should you call villains bet then? Flushes and straights are possible and you would rather call 2 streets than bet once and fold to a raise?

We keep the pot small and give ourselfa chance to get to the river for cheap.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by Smashie
Couldnt we include QQ/KK with a diamond here as well? (he had none of the hands you mentioned btw :f_ugly:)

KK-yes.
QQ-no.

Imo vice versa. KK he will 3bet like always.

Imo we should 3b KK so we can add KKd here.
QQ we should not 3b pre, so we should not have them here.

We should 3bet KK so we can add KK to villains 3bet calling range? You don't make sense.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i

Originally posted by Smashie
He indeed showed up with JT. I guess we could c/c turn there. Idunno

Well that was quite surprising. I knew it is possible but it would make much much more sense for him to raise sets than 2pair in this spot.

Pffff. Read my post and see how surprising this is...

I'm too lazy for that.