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AJs trips vs turn raise

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robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 111.6 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
UTG+1: 132.6 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP: 82.2 BB
MP+1: 103.2 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
MP+2: 92.8 BB (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
CO: 104 BB (VPIP: 17.82, PFR: 12.87, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 102)
BTN: 262.2 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
SB: 92 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♥ A♥

Hero raises to 3.2 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 3.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.8 BB, 2 players) A♠ T♠ A♣
Hero bets 5 BB, MP+1 calls 5 BB

Turn: (17.8 BB, 2 players) 5♥
Hero bets 11.4 BB, MP+1 raises to 29 BB, Hero calls 17.6 BB

River: (75.8 BB, 2 players) 6♠
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 24 BB, Hero calls 24 BB

Spoiler

MP+1 shows A♦ K♦ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 71%, Flop 80%, Turn 86%)
Hero mucks J♥ A♥ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 29%, Flop 20%, Turn 14%)
MP+1 wins 118.6 BB

Hey guys, another hand here.

I think the flop is pretty standard. On the turn, after his raise, I think I should have folded, I can only see hands that beat me. I put villain in the following range: TT,ATs+,AJo+.
Do you think we can include KsQs or KsJs here sometimes?
If we include those hands, we get 27.8% odds:


Board: A♠T♠A♣ 5♥
       Equity  Vencer  Empate
MP2    27.81%  15.64%  12.17% { AhJh }
MP3    72.19%  60.03%  12.17% { TT, ATs+, KsQs, KsJs, AJo+ }

To call we need at least 23.2%. Even including those bluffs, he woudn't bluff everytime, so it would alwasy be a fold to us, correct? What do you think? Could villain's range be any different?


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5 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Before I saw the spoiler I thought this is clear TT

This is actually quite interesting. I wouldn't include KQs KJs at least not all combos because I think villain shouldn't really be raising those when he is in position and the board is paired. I think with those hands he would quite often call turn.

OTT we still have a quite strong hand so if we fold there vs less than 3x raise, I think we really have to think villain has almost 0 bluffs or weaker trips. So I think this is not easy when we don't know much about the villain. To be honest, I would probably quite often play this hand just like you did and not bother my head with the loss that much.


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I would re raise OTT often OOP. Your Ax hand is very strong and he should not have better aces often, but I dont know FR nitland ranges. Aparently, he flats AKs so when he raises you can blind fold.
As played it is fine as well.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

What would we achieve with the re-raise OTT?
The sizing should be a shove. Draws would fold on a paired board. Considering the positions I would also say that better trips in villain's range are more likely than weaker ones.

For example, in 6max I do play ATs-AKs with mixed strategy (will flat about half of the time) even on CO vs UTG. But against UTG I wouldn't like to call very many weaker suited aces. So it is reasonable to expect that villain could indeed have some better trips in FR early positions.


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robin261187 Topic starter
robin261187
Joined: 04.01.2011

I really think that worse aces aren't in villain's range. I don't think people call with A9 or lower vs UTG.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Yea probably not very often. If he calls with weaker suited aces I would say A2s-A5s mostly but not A6s-A9s.. We have only 1 combo possible for each suited ace and A5s has a full house, so villain shouldn't have many weaker trips.


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