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Facing a jam OTR with a set

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vaca22
Joined: 24.11.2008

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $25 (100 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG: $30.67 (122.7 bb)
MP: $27.23 (108.9 bb)
CO: $41.41 (165.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $39.20 (156.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 6♣: 6♠:
UTG folds, MP calls $0.25, CO folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, MP calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.35) T♣: K♦: 6♦: (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $2.50, MP calls $2.50

Turn: ($7.35) 5♥: (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.75, MP calls $5.75

River: ($18.85) A♦: (2 players)
MP bets $17.98 and is all-in, Hero ??

Results:

Spoiler

$18.85 pot ($1.08 rake)
Final Board: T♣: K♦: 6♦: 5♥: A♦:
MP mucked and won $17.77 ($8.52 net)
Hero mucked 6♣: 6♠: and lost (-$9.25 net)

MP is a 43/5 fish over a 140 hands. Quite passive and does not really like folding flop and turn.
Ad is probably the worst card in a deck. It completes QJ and FD's. On the other hand he could have AK, AT.
I need 33% to make the call. If I give him 16 combos of QJ, 15 combos of flushes, 9 combos of AK and 9 combos of AT we have 36%. But it is really hard to put him on a range. If he would play AK like this he can have some combos of AA/KK/TT as well. He can have K6/K5/55...But perhaps with those weaker 2 pair hands he would not be so happy to jam when river completes all the draws. And from my experience when these passive players bet big like this it is very often very strong hand.


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4 replies

This line from a passive player id say is minimum the straight and very likely the flush. And as you say you don't even beat villains sets so id fold.You might pick off the occasional worse value hand or bluff.But no where near often enough to make calling profitable in my opinion


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

That line is usually underbluffed so unless you have specific reads I would fold to that donkbet. I cant also understand your sizing on turn. Its clear overbet if you look how many good draws can fish have. Also you are completely unblocking his bluffcatching region (Ax/Tx)


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Seems like a easy fold indeed with in mind he's calling already a over bet, a healthy bet on turn and all draws he could have has come on the river. I wouldn't be surprised he would check/call a hand like TT on the river or maybe he would play it more aggressive on earlier streets. Than only straights and flushes are in his range. It's even possible he would check/call broadway on the river with in mind he could be scared for a flush.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

I like flop big bet. Punishing capped ranges on high card boards is gold.
Turn ok.
River well, just fold, you have better sets and flushes too.
And just forget combos, odds and stuff. It is already difficult to do this against a regular in a short range spot, let alone against a fish in a limp/call pot. It also won't matter tbh. You shouldn't make monster calls / play huge pots assuming that odds, ranges, betsizes, whatever, were there to support your decision. It will let you down 100% of the times. Common sense is what matters, let computers do the math.


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