K9o BB BvsB, bluff-raise flop

Stackoffski

Joined: 08.09.2021

Posts: 1,077

28.04.2025, 21:37 0

So here I make a small raise to a small cbet on an 34A flop vs unknown:
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$0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100.5 BB
SB: 142.2 BB
Hero (BB): 102.5 BB
UTG: 119.3 BB
MP: 101.5 BB
CO: 148.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ 9♥

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 3♠ 4♥ A♦
SB bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, ...

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He needs to fold 5/(6+2+5) = 38.5% of the time, am I right?

His ATS wasn't too high, only 30%, but only 100 hands. It's probably higher, at least at the SB!.

But if I give him a little bit of a tighter range for the SB (37.6%):

...and say he would fold these hands from that range (16.0%):

...then he would fold enough: 16*100/37.6 = 42.6%

In reality, I think he will fold more often. I included all aces and pocket pairs. If he raises more often preflop, the most added hands are only more fold-hands postflop.

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SDK1987

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Joined: 12.11.2008

Posts: 43,980

29.04.2025, 17:53 0

Nice analyse you made. If I look to vilians raising range it's also possible that he/she would limp the suited connectors like T9s.
That's the same with weak Ax tha isn't going to raise. In general it doesn't matter to much I think off the raise pre-flop.
It's a strong move, but it's hard for you to hit this board to hard.

Cheers,
SDK1987

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Stackoffski Topic starter

Joined: 08.09.2021

Posts: 1,077

29.04.2025, 22:18 0

Originally posted by SDK1987
Nice analyse you made. If I look to vilians raising range it's also possible that he/she would limp the suited connectors like T9s.
That's the same with weak Ax tha isn't going to raise. In general it doesn't matter to much I think off the raise pre-flop.
It's a strong move, but it's hard for you to hit this board to hard.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Ah yes he could also limp some hands, but that's somehow very rarely in my games (maybe because it's fastfold?).

I forgot to mention it felt like a (almost) range-cbet on a Ace high dry board. He's going to have a lot of aces, but also a lot of other hands, and in reality a lot of pocket pairs will fold. Maybe not the highest ones (always). But he's out of position and he can't have an overcard and no flushdraws possible. Also the low cards don't hit him hard.

Either he hits the board or he is crushed. Nasty spot for him oop without an Ace or better.

I probably wouldn't do it on a 2-to-a-flush flop, or higher cards besides the Ace. I would also never follow up vs resistance. But this time the situation looked good for a cheap stab.

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SDK1987

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Joined: 12.11.2008

Posts: 43,980

01.05.2025, 17:24 0

It's also good to think what you try to represent with a raise after just calling pre-flop.

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Stackoffski Topic starter

Joined: 08.09.2021

Posts: 1,077

02.05.2025, 15:40 0

Originally posted by SDK1987
It's also good to think what you try to represent with a raise after just calling pre-flop.

You're saying most really strong hands would have 3bet pre right? But I think in his eyes and we being unkowns: It's fastfold and I might have called A3, A4, 33, 44, weaker ace, some pp's. He doesn't know me. And even when he thinks I am likely bluffing: what's he going to do about it being oop? Especially in fastfold, he'll probably just fold and move on :f_wink: It's also the small cbet and small raise, had he shown strength I'd just fold.

But: it's good to know I should realize I am not repping much (to some other players)!!

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