Originally posted by Dragar
Notice his half-bet pot size on the turn? You really think he would do that on a set with a flush draw open?
I don't think he would be worried at all about a backdoor flush draw, if he's any decent he would put Hero on an over pair or set.
Stats are one thing, but if Balanarm has played long enough with this dude to KNOW that he just doesn't overcall funky hands like 68s, even from the button, and that he would fold 99 to flop action (and 3bet all higher pairs preflop)... then it's not unreasonable at all to accurately put him on a better set, and decide that there will be much better spots to get the money in vs this guy.
Personally I don't know if I can get away from this... but if you've really been "in the zone" and watching this guy closely and decide that he has a better set, then by all means trust your instinct and go for the fold (and don't post about it here ;))