[Closed] [Nl25 Sh] 66

What do you guys think? Am I just a maniac hiding himself behind strange reasonings?
I think BU has there mostly random air, although by betting turn he may also fold his overpairs, so I like that play.
Either way you can´t really c/r flop and then fold to 3-bet, since his range is just too wide and you hold quite strong hand
If you bet turn you likely have to b/c, since I don´t see 4x or overpairs shoving there and 5x would likely not 3-bet flop

There was a mistake in my line, since I was about to fold to a turn reraise.

Still have to make some progress I think ♦

Originally posted by DoigteurFou
There was a mistake in my line, since I was about to fold to a turn reraise.

Still have to make some progress I think ♦

well maybe b/f turn is the correct play, since don´t see players also shove there draws, since you´re reping boat. So if you get shoved then it is really quite rare spot, so I would likely call to just get information + I get really good pot odds.

that makes sense
Thank you

I think this is a spew. Even thought I like the analysis of the hand and the way you thought about the hand.

If you call 66 preflop and you know that you don't have implied odds, due to the large/weak villains range, you have to bluff postflop to make it profitable.

But how often will you get away with it? You can also play good by folding if 3beting will get a 4bet out of villain (and a call to a 5bet shove).

On the turn you only have @pot size stack. With what would you call the 3bet and bet the 5 turn, instead of checking to aggressor? With quads I'd say never, with JJ you would shove on the flop, with a 4 or a 5 you would let villain bet and if he would check behind you would bet the river for value (balanced range with your bluffs, because villain showed weakness by checking behind).

About the call flop to bluff turn if diamond or overcard hits:

The turn cards hitting my range and letting him think his overpair is not good anymore are the diamonds, 8, A, and 5. This is 18 outs. I also have two 6 remaining. I though having 4:1 to draw my bluffs were way enough, so I called.

You have A, 8, diamonds and 6 as good cards for the turn, that's 17 outs (4 aces, 4 eights, 2 sixes, 6 diamonds [A:d, 8:d, 6:d not included])

- With this play you risk $13.2 to win $11.84 (rake was taken) when a bluffing card comes. So in 37% of the time you have to win 54% of the time for the bluff to be profitable. (This doesn't include the money you lose by calling to make the play, the point below. Because it's not a one street/move bluff, like overbet $13.2 to win $11.84, you will not get the chance every time to put in all the $13.2)

- In the other 63% of the time you lose $4.87.

And if you call the raise on the turn you get ~17% pot odds for the call, but villain will probably never bluff there for so little (he has no FE). So, imo, with after that bet you lose another 8$ every time you your bluff doesn't work b/e villain has a hand.

- The play - In 100 scenarios, you lose 63 times $4.87 = $306.8 and you win 37 times $11.84 = $438. That would make it a profitable play, with $132 profit in 100 hands = $1.32 per hand/exact scenario. This is if your bluff will always work, when a bluffing card comes, which will not.

If it will work in only 75% of the time (the bluff) then you lose $306.8 and 9* $8.25 = $74.25 ) = $381 loss; and you win 28 * $11.84 = $331.5 ... which ultimately will bring a loss for every case. The bluff has to work at least 80% of the time to make it profitable.

And in 292 hands you barely get to know a players game (if he's a reg), not enough to make a play like this.

PS: I didn't include the times you make the boat and get payed, but I think that if you will call the raise on the turn, it will equal out (because as I said, I don't think villain ever bluffs there).

Another thing, if you think that villain won't fold to a c/r then don't do it as a bluff.

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I didn't put 5 as a bluffing card because if you put 5, because villain could have 3beted broadway, then a 2, 3, 7, 8 and 9 are good bluffing cards on the turn along with the 5. And if you think broadway is a big part of his range, then shoving is best and not letting him see the turn for free and then to be able to get you off your hand when a scare card comes (K).

And donking the turn doesn't make much sense when a diamond doesn't come and low card comes, because if you have a boat then you are not scared of villain making a flush, which you know he doesn't have anyways (and he may know that you know, because of the 3bet).

Summary:

- The play will bring variance with a likely loss longterm.
- On the flop on this board, don't C/R if you think you have little FoldEquity.
- If you don't have implied odds or you know that villains isn't very weak and fold easily, don't call preflop. Fold or 3bet.
- You make money from fish, not from regs. So better focus on them.