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NL25 turning pair into bluff river?

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niveaformen
Joined: 07.11.2008

$25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

Hero (BTN): $48.29 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 22, 3B: 6, AF: 1,8, Hands: 8858
SB: $42.69 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 2,1, Hands: 708
BB: $42.73 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 19
UTG: $26.88 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 28, 3B: 8, AF: 9,0, Hands: 29
MP: $18.33 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 22, 3B: 19, AF: 3,4, Hands: 758
CO: $23.05 - VPIP: 100, PFR: 100, 3B: 0, AF: 2,0, Hands: 1

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 6 :heart: 5 :heart:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.62, Hero calls $0.62, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.59) 4 :heart: 6 :spade: J :diamond: (2 players)
CO bets $0.86, Hero calls $0.86

Turn: ($3.31) 8 :diamond: (2 players)
CO bets $1.87, Hero calls $1.87

River: ($7.05) A :diamond: (2 players)
CO checks

So, unknown villain with <100bb stack.
Preflop should be easy flat vs 2.5x open.
Flop should be std.
Turn vs such low size maybe we can raise, but call looks good.
River? He shouldn't really have many Ax and AJ is going to bet, same for BDF. So, my thinking is that I should just exploitative bet big or even overbet and try to fold out Jx? Is that too optimistic vs unknown 90bb-er?


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w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey Niveaformen,

Preflop defend is fine.

Flop call is good.

I probably would go ahead and raise the turn, I think it can potentially have the highest EV in a vacuum.

Vs river check it should be a great spot to bluff. I don't think we even need to bet that big to fold out his Jx. Large bet could look suspicious here also given that we potentially wouldn't overbet our flushes since we know villain is frequently capped. Depends on what level villain is on of course.


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