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Rivered Top two vs fish

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PacnyTuH0
Joined: 02.05.2007

Villain is 38/23 so seems fishy.

On the river, what should be my ideal size for a raise?
Any arguments against raising?

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

CO: $47.96 (191.8 bb)
BTN: $31.74 (127 bb)
SB: $25 (100 bb)
BB: $26.84 (107.4 bb)
Hero (UTG): $25 (100 bb)
MP: $27.46 (109.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A♠ K♠
Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 4♣ 6♥ 9♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.60) A♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

River: ($3.60) K♥ (2 players)
BB bets $2.25, Hero ???


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9 replies
VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

He almost never has set on the river since he checks twice on drawy board. Maybe 2 pairs. I would raise to 6-7.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Call is always possible. If we raise what hands are we targetting?


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

2 pairs


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

villain can lead 2 P on turn. But still, yeah, maybe we can target them.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I think I would just call the river. Given that he called our open raise BB vs UTG, I don't see which two-pairs he could have on the river, so I believe there are not many worse hands that will call our river raise. We might just isolate ourselves against some weird played sets.


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Aerox232
Joined: 28.04.2011

Just call, probablly he hava k9


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pappadjango
Joined: 23.07.2010

raise all in he will call off with worse 2 pair combo


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Originally posted by VaskataBuci
He almost never has set on the river since he checks twice on drawy board. Maybe 2 pairs. I would raise to 6-7.

Raise it, there's no possible straights out there, if he has a set, well... good for him. Only 9 combos of those but in total 36 combos of Ax and Kx with worse 2 pairs (if I calculated correctly) that he will stack off nearly every time if he's a fish, at least he would call a small raise for sure :)

So I guess from a pure mathematical point of view it's a shove every time, but if he never stacks off with worse than sets then obviously things change...


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kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

Originally posted by Aerox232
Just call, probablly he hava k9

Yes, K9 is likely and that is why we want to raise.


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