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TP vs second barrel

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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

CO: 39.6 BB (VPIP: 28.95, PFR: 21.62, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 39)
BTN: 40 BB (VPIP: 21.26, PFR: 18.23, 3Bet Preflop: 9.44, Hands: 1,801)
SB: 120.8 BB (VPIP: 17.72, PFR: 3.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.93, Hands: 776)
Hero (BB): 169.68 BB
UTG: 96.28 BB (VPIP: 40.98, PFR: 27.87, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 62)
MP: 136.72 BB (VPIP: 20.92, PFR: 7.74, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 354)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♠ K♦

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 7♦ Q♣ 2♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 2.74 BB, Hero calls 2.74 BB

Turn: (10.98 BB, 2 players) 7♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 7.48 BB, Hero calls 7.48 BB

River: (25.94 BB, 2 players) 8♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 27.28 BB and is all-in, fold

I've been in this spot many times. Especially vs. regs I always have a very bad feeling about this turn when they size like this: Starting with 1/2 pot then going for 3/4 pot OTT as the second pair pairs. And I remember many times where I just face a triple barrel after that.

That question may sound stupid, but can we fold the turn in this scenario? Because I don't see Villains bluffing like that and it seems very unlikely they doublebarrel a worse toppair or semibluff the 7.


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3 replies
Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

It's certainly very close, this guys seems to be playing shortstack strategy, he's folding very rarely in bb vs btn situation if he somehow gets hooked, I can understand arguments favouring folding here.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Interested spot for sure on the turn when he’s betting more on a save looking turn card for me and you are only bluff catching against the flush draw I think and without reads on him I don’t think it’s bad to fold here based on his bigger bet size with in mind he will barrel the river as well most of the time.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We can find a fold here. The bigger bet on turn is not with medium handihand I will not be surprised to see A7s...


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