AAQ2ss vs minraise

Hi,

Calling flop is fine.
If turn is a heart and he pots, I think you have 0% fold equity shoving.

Hozk

Me shoving means going allin. of course there is no FE, But is it +EV?

What do you know about the opponent? And what range do you give him for that minraise?

he was a fish with like 80/20 probably, kinda passive- that could mean this is the nuts, but I just could not fold to this price with so much BD EQ.

So lets assume that he has a set.

You will hit an 5 or an Ace around 14% of times. Non-five heart will come around 20% of times. So 2/3 your hand doesn't improve and you have to fold ott. Heart will give enough equity to call turn bet and is +EV if opponent bets less than a pot. To call flop raise with just a gutshot, you would need to win about $11 if you hit it. Of course if you hit hearts ott and opponent bets less than a pot it gives you more EV overall.

Problem with just a gutshot is that if you hit the straight ott and pot it, opponent of course calls and he has about 23% equity. So if you bet $11, your share is about $8,50. Opponent would have $2,50 or so behind otr and I would assume he calls with that anyway. That would be total value ott+otr of $11 which is about breakeven. Your backdoor flush and 2 outs to Aces increase your EV, so in total it is profitable call.

Just remember to bet big if you hit 5 or an Ace ott. If heart comes, check and see how much he bets. If he pots it you have to fold. If he bets less, you have to call.

P.S. Why would you want to shove heart on the turn if opponent has a better hand and your FE is 0? To valuebet, your equity vs calling range needs to be over 50%.

Thanks, for the anyalysis