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Bet sizing

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GaZaLyN
Joined: 19.05.2014

PokerStars - $0.02 PL Hi FAST (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 139 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
Hero (SB): 100.5 BB
BB: 641.5 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
UTG: 74 BB
MP: 211 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
CO: 97.5 BB (VPIP: 14.89, PFR: 9.57, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 98)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♣ K♥ 5♣ 2♥

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) A♠ Q♠ 7♥
Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB

Turn: (14 BB, 2 players) 8♠
Hero bets 8 BB, BB calls 8 BB

River: (30 BB, 2 players) 3♠
Hero bets 20 BB, fold

Hero wins 29 BB
What do you think about my bet sizing? Could i bet smaller and get same fold equity. I think river bet is to large. What do you think?


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4 replies
Ephedrine10
Joined: 12.02.2014

You could go smaller, because you are targeting hi non flush hands to fold. (at least you should :D ) Because BvB and at PLO2 and with 4 spades on the board, and with no blockers at all there is no way that anyone will fold a flush on the river. AA/QQ is unlikely since he did not raise otf. He most likely has 2 pairs so around 14-15 BB seems good for me. But i'm not sure I would barrel this turn anyway.
I checked with Pokerjuice:
(the names and positions are not yours but it does not count)
Assuming he continues on the turn with any 2 pair or better, and raises AQ+ on the flop he will continue 57% of the time, so your bet is definetely profitable.

On the river I would give up. His range is heavy on flushes, and he may call you with 2 pairs some of the time


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

If you have the PJ file still available, can you check how often he has the flush on the river?


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Ephedrine10
Joined: 12.02.2014

The problem is, that I used an other HH file and modified it. And there was no river there.. :P But I think I can check it out if I manage to learn game builder module.


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Ephedrine10
Joined: 12.02.2014

now I have it.
Assuming he calls the turn with 78+ he will have a flush on the river 50,93%. assumng he does slowplay the nut flush on the turn: 58,81%. Assuming he only calls the turn with a8+ (which is far more likely than the 78+ IMO) than he will have a flush 76,1% of the time.


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