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calling river?

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makinee
Joined: 24.11.2014

PokerStars - $0.05 PL Hi FAST (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 457.6 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 44.44, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 9)
SB: 49.4 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: 119.4 BB (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 9)
UTG: 114.8 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): 102.2 BB
CO: 96 BB (VPIP: 25.81, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♦ J♠ Q♥ T♥

fold, Hero raises to 3.4 BB, fold, BTN calls 3.4 BB, SB calls 3 BB, fold

Flop: (11.2 BB, 3 players) Q♠ 3♣ 5♠
SB checks, Hero bets 8.2 BB, BTN calls 8.2 BB, fold

Turn: (27.6 BB, 2 players) Q♣
Hero bets 21 BB, BTN calls 21 BB

River: (69.6 BB, 2 players) 6♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 66.8 BB, HERO???

Spoiler

Hero calls 66.8 BB

Spoiler

BTN shows K♣ 8♠ 6♥ 6♠ (Full House, Sixes full of Queens)
(Pre 44%, Flop 49%, Turn 20%)
Hero mucks 9♦ J♠ Q♥ T♥ (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 56%, Flop 51%, Turn 80%)
BTN wins 195.2 BB

FD misses and it is definitely in villain range and there should not be many sets. Could bet as a bluff?


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Super Moderator
Rainmy
Joined: 17.07.2009

Imo the point is your bet in the flop is very strong but his call is strong too. After one card is doubled in the tourn and against your bet, practically you Queen is faced up, many flush draws won't continue in the hand and straight draws are abandoned. So, set is the most probable in his range, threes or fives playing them passive because are low. Also, he could have the other Q.

Against set or Q, you don't have pot equity to call otr, if we add 25% he is bluffing with his missed fd so your equity is 35%, close.


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