Originally posted by Tim64
Originally posted by Shevtshenko
Originally posted by Tim64
Originally posted by Shevtshenko
So that's the range we're targeting with our turn bet. QJT, everything else that calls has K8 beat.
I gave you one example of a hand that might play this way - because you specifically asked for one. Clearly I'm not presenting you his entire x/c range.
We talked about this before and it's not like we found an abundance of hands that we can get value from ott. We're almost always behind when we get called ott.
I actually think that's probably fair. When we get called we're often slightly behind. (Though I do think hands like QT57, QTJ*, AA**, AhQsJh* can all play this way from as SB, and are not x/folding turn - hands we are ahead of). However, 1. when we get folds we deny equity (it's not like our hand is invulnerable) and 2. when we get called we'll often improve on the river to a hand we can value bet against hands we've overtaken - for instance we've just over 50% eq even against Q6, and only 45% underdog vs KQ (not that we'd expect KQ to take this line).
Yea, i agree with most of this. The second numbered point i don't really agree with as much. Since the times we hit the flush, we have less value (as a percentage of the pot, maybe even in total) if we bet the turn compared to the times we check. Also, even if we hit trips, we can't really feel great about betting river. There are no 2pair outs (all those make us a straight). Also, we deny our opponent a chance to bluff rivers with hands he's c/fing or bet/call rivers with weaker hands when we hit straights.
So imo, not a super simple either way. I still like checking. That said, it's a super close spot so don't really mind either way, since the ev has to be really close either way. I just think ev of checking is likely higher than ev of betting. We look really weak after checking turn, so even weaker villains can find bluffs on quite a few rivers.
That all said, if you're convinced that sb is too straightforward - not c/ring enough (as bluffs or for value) and not bluffing rivers, then the ev of betting goes up and may end up being better.