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[Closed] PLO10 SH [Td Qh Jh Kc] - fold on turn?

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veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008
BlackMember

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $0.10(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($12.40)
Hero ($10.45)
UTG ($15.40)
UTG+1 ($9.55)
CO ($19.20)
BTN ($4.05)

Dealt to Hero T♦ Q♥ J♥ K♣

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.30

FLOP ($1.20) 9♠ 6♣ 8♥

SB bets $1.15, Hero calls $1.15, BTN folds

TURN ($3.50) 9♠ 6♣ 8♥ 3♠

SB bets $3.35, Hero calls $3.35

RIVER ($10.20) 9♠ 6♣ 8♥ 3♠ 9♦

SB bets $7.50 (AI),

What do you think about such play? I have a way too many outs to fold directly on flop, also I can't really go broke there, seems that he has a pretty strong hand, my equity wouldn't be the best. What do you think about such play?


5 replies

I think your play is fine
I´d also call turn, since I doubt he is going to c/f river, so you have enough outs to improve


alejandrosh
Joined: 02.07.2008
Oldschool Grinder

you have 23% equity against 7T** , you need big implied odds to call such a big bet ... and with this stacksizes it should be a fold in general (fwiw I thought this before doing the math where is definetly a fold imho)

* I'm calling impliedstack the increase on hero's stacksize when hitting the straight , I don't know if that word even exists

stack EV of folding = $8.9
stack EV of calling = villianEq*remaining stack + equity*(potsize+impliedstack)*0,95 (rake)
stack EV of calling = 0,77*$5,55 + 0,23*0,95*($10.2+impliedstack)

EV (calling-folding) = -$8.9 + $6.5042 + 0,2185*implied stack

EV > 0 if implied stack > $10.96 // he has to give away $5.48 meaning he has to practicly stackoff on every river hit

please correct me if I messed up , I'm really hungry but can't say no to math


I think turn call is fine, since he can maybe also bluffing there with one pair+draw hand and when he misses we can take river our free showdown if we also improve to K and most of the times I hate just folding wraps ip
Also you could consider that we can turn our hand into bluff and shove for example if board pairs or flushcard comes


alejandrosh
Joined: 02.07.2008
Oldschool Grinder

yes it can be way more +ev if we have FE , also his range is probably not just 7T** but the point of the calculation (oversimplified) is that even with max implieds the call is still super thin imo. again I could be way off here but I'm too dumb to do a calculation with FE and stuff


NietzscheF
Joined: 23.08.2009
PokerStrategist

Preflop play fine, flop call is fine 2, since you have backdoor hearts draw and open ender(but your holding one in your range allready, so less outs).

You dont improve on the turn, and your overcards, when they do hit on the river, they are prob no good. Turn is a clear fold.


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