PLO20 AAQJ7nss 3BP IP with NF – Sizing?

Joined: 09.10.2010

27.03.2025, 14:46 0

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

PL 5 Card Omaha 0.20(BB)
CO (232BBs) [VPIP: 86.6% | PFR: 46.6% | AGG: 28.2% | Hands: 302]
HERO (100BBs) [VPIP: 26.7% | PFR: 19.4% | AGG: 26% | Hands: 147540]
SB (99BBs) [VPIP: 60.9% | PFR: 0.4% | AGG: 17.1% | Hands: 466]
BB (86.5BBs) [VPIP: 14.7% | PFR: 8.8% | AGG: 30% | Hands: 68]
UTG (281.9BBs) [VPIP: 40.1% | PFR: 16.5% | AGG: 21.6% | Hands: 737]
HJ (32BBs) [VPIP: 79.5% | PFR: 41% | AGG: 15.6% | Hands: 79]

Dealt to Hero: A♠ J♥ Q♣ A♣ 7♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To 3.5BBs, HERO Raises To 12BBs, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls 8.5BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.45 effective]
Flop (25.5BBs): K♦ 3♣ 6♣
CO Checks, HERO Bets 12.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 75.3BBs), CO Calls 12.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 207.3BBs)

Turn (51BBs): K♦ 3♣ 6♣ T♣
CO Checks, HERO ?

From theory I know I don't want to bet big but I was not sure about how small to bet. possibilites are 25%, 33% and 50%.

I wonder if practically from an exploitative pov what'd make more sense? You are getting it in by the river anyways obviously but I would assume, that calling ranges deviate overelastically and it's also a spot where I think, if villain plays bad ott he'll continue an even worse unbalanced strategy on rivers. Probably it also depends on player types. Against fishy players, I feel like betting more small is also more likely to drag them in with hands they would have been folding ott but end up calling the river shove due to a lack of discipline and against the better regs it's either small vs overfolding or bigger to create more FE and keep up a situation of overfolding as you'd prefer that anyways. I am aware from an theory and EV pov it barely makes any difference, but I feel like population tends to overadjust and I feel like this is something you could exploit but I also don't want to switch around sizings all the time^^.

Spoiler

HERO Bets 25.5BBs (Rem. Stack: 49.8BBs), CO Raises To 96BBs (Rem. Stack: 111.3BBs), HERO Calls 49.8BBs (allin)

River (222.3BBs): K♦ 3♣ 6♣ T♣ 8♠

Players agreed to run it 2 times.

River #2(222.3BBs): K♦ 3♣ 6♣ T♣ Q♠

I ended up with a half-pot sizing. Solver likes to bet 1/3 pot only.

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ghaleon

Joined: 17.10.2007

Posts: 10,955

27.03.2025, 20:45 +1

Dont matter too much probably. One thing to consider is how likely is it opponent has two pairs or sets after they call flop. On this flop I would expect those to raise our cbet very often so we dont need protection per say. But lets say flop was JT8ss then two pair and sets would be way more likely and I would like to use bigger sizing.

In this case solver wise we probably want to bet small as that will get lot of less than flush combos to fold anyway and it will make bluff cheaper. Plus if opponent continue turn bit wider it will increase fe for river barrel. Basically in this case we could go small and perhaps get some wrap type with flush blocker to continue? Might not happen though.

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Mascherano95 Topic starter

Joined: 09.10.2010

Posts: 1,929

27.03.2025, 23:45 0

Originally posted by ghaleon
Dont matter too much probably. One thing to consider is how likely is it opponent has two pairs or sets after they call flop. On this flop I would expect those to raise our cbet very often so we dont need protection per say. But lets say flop was JT8ss then two pair and sets would be way more likely and I would like to use bigger sizing.

In this case solver wise we probably want to bet small as that will get lot of less than flush combos to fold anyway and it will make bluff cheaper. Plus if opponent continue turn bit wider it will increase fe for river barrel.

Thanks makes sense indeed.

Basically in this case we could go small and perhaps get some wrap type with flush blocker to continue? Might not happen though.

I think this is still the case though over against many players as a rough tendency. Cause of common handstrength orientation correlated to the amount of bets made.

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PLO20 AAQJ7nss 3BP IP with NF - Sizing?