[Closed] $15, AJo bubble probably bad decision

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Last Post by shakin65 15 years ago

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akrammon

Joined: 17.05.2009

Posts: 2,878

31.07.2011, 12:56 0

Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100.00/t200.00 Blinds - 4 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: t1425.00 7.12 BBs
CO: t3835.00 19.18 BBs
Hero (BTN): t1165.00 5.83 BBs
SB: t7075.00 35.38 BBs

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BTN with J♥ A♠
CO raises to t600, Hero raises to t1140, 2 folds, CO calls t540

BB is a fishy player playing surprisingly good on the bubble. Tight with calls, loose from SB.
Now my problem was that the chance that he calls this hand is very small, and he gets decent FE next hand. The guy to his left was folding a lot of BBs to him with the bigstack skipping a lot of ATC shoves and giving him the possibility of first-in. He also got some walks when he was clear shortstack from the bigstack.
I never got a walk, the guy to my right always shoved. Also, my bvb steals are aimed towards the bigstack... So basically all circumstances were bad for me. Given all that, do you like the shove? I think it's bad as default.

:club: akrammon's midstakes STTs :club:

3 replies

madison79

Joined: 06.06.2011

Posts: 64

31.07.2011, 13:45 0

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IT's a huge push and honestly you should be fist pumping to pick up AJ.

Only if the SB calls 99% of the time is it a very very small -ev shove.

akrammon Topic starter

Joined: 17.05.2009

Posts: 2,878

31.07.2011, 15:17 0

Originally posted by madison79
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IT's a huge push and honestly you should be fist pumping to pick up AJ.

Only if the SB calls 99% of the time is it a very very small -ev shove.

I'm not first in, CO 3x-ed.

:club: akrammon's midstakes STTs :club:

shakin65

Joined: 17.09.2005

Posts: 21,498

01.08.2011, 16:14 0

I don't get it +EV, even if CO is opening with 100% + with a tight overcalling range for BB. Co should not be to loose in his opening range cause he has to call a push from the small stacks. So more than 50% is not realistic.

Problem in the hand is the game flow, which is not on your side. That's the reason why I'm inclined to take a -EV spot. Depending on my reads on CO and giving him something like 30 - 40% (you're nearly 60/40 favorite) I like a push. If you think he's more on 20 -25% I fold (55/45)

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