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9-man Full Tilt 2.5$ SnG A9s Postflop

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lycoreus
Joined: 27.01.2012
PokerStrategist

Full Tilt, $2.50 Buy-in (120/240 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 2,715 (11.3 bb)
BB: 4,777 (19.9 bb) (VPIP:49 PFR:17 AF:3.9 over 176 hands
Hero (BTN): 6,008 (25 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A 9
Hero raises to 480, SB folds, BB calls 240

Flop: (1,080) A J 4 (2 players)
BB bets 240, Hero calls 240

Turn: (1,560) K (2 players)
BB bets 240, Hero calls 240

River: (2,040) K (2 players)
BB bets 840, Hero calls 840

Results:

Spoiler

3,720 pot
Final Board: A J 4 K K
BB showed J A and won 1,860 (60 net)
Hero showed A 9 and won 1,860 (60 net)

Flop: I flat-call the donk bet to revaluate on the turn
Turn: I have the pot and implied odds to call
River: His weak bet sizes and his stats make me believe I have enough showdown value for a call


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6 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013
PokerStrategist

I don't think villain would do this with Jx or weaker. Your kicker is quite low. You miss your FD and I think it would be ok to fold.
Do you have any stats/reads on villain?


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lycoreus Topic starter
lycoreus
Joined: 27.01.2012
PokerStrategist

Yep, villains stats are VPIP:49 PFR:17 AF:3.9 over 176 hands


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008
Oldschool Grinder

It’s a weird line of the villain here. I expect he could have a missed flush draw often here and with the paired boarded only AQ and AK beats you and you split against other Ax combo’s and I don’t think he has a lot of Kx combo’s that he leads the flop and turn with. So I don’t think a call on river is too bad here.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013
PokerStrategist

Damn, I totally missed that we are splitting vs other Ax (except AK,AQ).


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TomClassy
Joined: 06.05.2015
Poker Player

I feel like villain has no logical basis for his actions at all with stats like this so I would make a very uncertain prediction on the hands (even 35-45% is possible) he plays in the given circumstances and you are definitely ahead of his range. I would like to have a read on him in such spots. not sure if he is a complete Harry Potter and ignores all the danger lying on the board and your raise/call/call


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TomClassy
Joined: 06.05.2015
Poker Player

p.s. no offence to Harry Potter fans - I love him too)


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