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[Closed] A10o resteal?

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Poker Stars $15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75.00/t150.00 Blinds - 5 players

UTG: t3090.00 20.60 BBs
CO: t4685.00 31.23 BBs
Hero (BTN): t1855.00 12.37 BBs
SB: t1490.00 9.93 BBs
BB: t2380.00 15.87 BBs

Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is BTN with A :diamond: T :spade:
1 fold, CO raises to t600, Hero raises to t1855, 2 folds, CO calls t1255

Would you consider this hand as a resteal / value push?
Villain plays 24/10 over 100 hands. He steals 11% from CO.
Based on this should we fold as SNG wiz recommends?


4 replies

This doesn't look like a good resteal, and I would fold AJo there, too.

Your push gives him better than 2:1 odds, and he covers you by a lot, so he is not so risk-averse against you. You are quite risk-averse against him.

I'm not sure that I would put him on an 11% range now that he is the chip leader. However, ATo gets destroyed by an 11% range. To resteal, I would want an unrealistically large amount of folding equity or a read that despite his large 4 bb raise, he has a much wider range.


_Anonymous_ Topic starter
_Anonymous_

Ýou´re right, while playing I didn´t realize that his big 4x raise is giving him such a good odds and my initial thinking was that he´s gonna raise also worse hands like weaker A or KQ, KJ. (also because he´s a chipleader I would put him wider range)
But it doesn´t mean I´m beating his range (that 11% steal from CO is just a read from HEM HUD over 100 hands) + he´s basically never folding.


akrammon
Joined: 17.05.2009
Elite Grinder

I suggest that you treat CO's raise as a push and check what Wiz says - I mean how much he needs to push for this to be breakeven. It's often the easiest way to decide whether a call is good or not :)


You do have some folding equity, but not much. If you have no folding equity, then according to the ICM you need over 59% equity against the CO's range to want to get all-in here. You can use the "Call Push?" button in my program ICM Explorer to check this:

Fold: 1855 chips, 0.1568, SD: $16.17
Win: 3935 chips, 0.2649
Lose: 0 chips, 0
Tie: 1967.5 chips, 0.1638

Equity needed: 59.17%
Chip odds: 47.14%
Risk premium: 12.03%

ATo only has 62.7% equity against a random hand, it has about 59.3% against a top 50% range, 56.0% against a 30% range, and 51.4% against one 20% range.

If you get 10% folds, you need about 57.2% equity (you can see this with the "Semibluff?" button). That ignores the possibility that the blinds will get involved. If you get 20% folds, you need about 54.7% equity. If you get 30% folds, you need about 51.4% equity. So, this resteal might look marginally ok if you think the CO is raising 29%, and will call a push with the top 20%. However, I think that is too optimistic.


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