PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.4 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO (t1500)
Button (t1490)
SB (t1480)
Hero (BB) (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t3030)
Hero's M: 50.00
Preflop: Hero is BB with 9
, A
6 folds, SB bets t40, Hero raises to t160, SB calls t120
Second hand in a SnG. Villain raises to 2BB, so I reraise, villain calls.
Flop: (t320) 9
, 4, 8
(2 players)
SB bets t1320 (All-In), Hero ???
I hit top pair on the flop, villain instantly over shoves. To me this really smells like a big bluff and confirms that his weak pre-flop raise was a blind steal. Why would he shove it here when he has a made hand? If I was in his situation, then the only situation I might shove it here would be if my opponent shows an OESFD and even then I'd probably prefer a pot sized bet.
If my opponent has TT-AA, I'd expect a 4-bet pre-flop. I would just bet 2/3 of the pot if I would have had a set. If he has two over cards, I should call, especially if one of them is an ace, which he is more likely to have in that situation. I don't expect many players on these limits to play hands like JTs-KJs for value. Only reasonable hands he would play like this are AT-AQ and KQ, but why would he shove them? Just c-bet would be way better, unless he's an idiot, but then he might as well hold 72o.
All in all, I think I should call his all-in. The only hands which dominate are sets, two pair and OESFD, which I don't expect him to have, and calling a FD or SD would only be slightly -EV. SD is in my opinion unlikely for him to have and I doubt he has a FD. I dominate two random overcards, especially high aces.
Am I correct in my assumptions or should I fold this hand?
