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$150 GGMasters Overlay | AQs in MP

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mariussica88
Joined: 07.10.2010
PokerStrategist

MP+1 stats after 31 hands: VPIP 23 PFR 16 Call Open Raise 11 Fold to Flop C-bet 100 and 3-bet 12

On the flop I 100% c-bet there, but when he raise me I'm thinking that he also might have something like AQ, QK, QJ, A10, A6s, also he might have any 2 :club:.
The turn I decided to check, since :club: and also J9 get there, then he checks back giving me the impression that he does not have a flush. Now on the river...do you guys think that it's wrong from me to bet? I might got the size a bit wrong ( a bet like 950 ), but in my eyes I bet here for value....targeting KQ, A10, thinking that a set of 6 would have bet the turn, also a pair of 10s would have 3-bet pre-flop since they don't play that good post flop.

GG Poker - 40/80 Ante 10 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

BTN: 11,602 (145 bb)
SB: 9,673 (120.9 bb)
BB: 9,492 (118.7 bb)
UTG: 8,827 (110.3 bb)
UTG+1: 10,156 (127 bb)
Hero (MP): 8,479 (106 bb)
MP+1: 11,719 (146.5 bb)
CO: 10,072 (125.9 bb)

8 players post ante of 10, SB posts 40, BB posts 80

Pre Flop: (pot: 200) Hero has A♠: Q♠:
2 folds, Hero raises to 200, MP+1 calls 200, 4 folds

Flop: (600, 2 players) 6♥: Q♣: T♣:
Hero bets 306, MP+1 raises to 1,152, Hero calls 846

Turn: (2,904, 2 players) 8♣:
Hero checks, MP+1 checks

River: (2,904, 2 players) 2♥:
Hero bets 1,801, MP+1 calls 1,801

Spoiler

Results: 6,506 pot (0 rake)
Final Board: 6♥: Q♣: T♣: 8♣: 2♥:

Hero shows A♠: Q♠:: (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 46%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)

MP+1 shows T♠: T♥:: (Three of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)

MP+1 wins 6,506


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008
Oldschool Grinder

Seems well played. Sizing on the river is indeed to high. I expect if you bet around 1k you get more action of weaker hands. Off course you need to fold if villain raised.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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