Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

QQ, villain c/c c/c c/shove?

12 Posts
5 Users
0 Reactions
1,196 Views
zachrina
Joined: 05.12.2012
PokerStrategist

SCOOP #22 (L)

Hi, I am aware that a check back on this river may be a preferred strategy so early on. I just didn't think he would risk missing value on the river with a FH.

Cheers,

Poker Stars, $24.55 Buy-in (25/50 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP1: 11,275 (225.5 bb)
MP2: 9,375 (187.5 bb)
MP3: 9,900 (198 bb)
CO: 10,475 (209.5 bb)
BTN: 9,925 (198.5 bb)
SB: 9,950 (199 bb)
BB: 9,100 (182 bb)
UTG+1: 8,950 (179 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 10,000 (200 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q Q
UTG+1 calls 50, Hero raises to 250, 5 folds, SB calls 225, 2 folds

Flop: (600) 3 T J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 450, SB calls 450

Turn: (1,500) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 1,100, SB calls 1,100

River: (3,700) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 1,850, SB raises to 8,150 and is all-in, Hero ???

Results:

Spoiler

7,400 pot
Final Board: 3 T J 5 5
SB mucked and won 7,400 (3,750 net)
Hero mucked Q Q and lost (-3,650 net)


Reply
Quote
11 replies
gusma
Joined: 07.10.2007
BlackMember

its a b/f river vs any thinking player,since you can extract from Jx but you are beaten as soon as you get raised.


Reply
Quote

Hi,

You mostly see 33/55. I think b/f river is fine unless player seems really fishy and can possible shove river some Axs/pp-s hands that he decided to call flop, turn and now deciding that his hand has no showdown value

bets regards,


Reply
Quote
TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008
BlackMember

22$ huge field MTT

agree that most villains will ch/r turn with sets most of the times and lead river with boat most of the time
with those assumption i dont think he has 55 very often i think his range looks like this

33*/JJ*/TT*/KQhh/98hh/AJs/KK-AA**/JT (imo this is reasonable range)
* only one combo of each, total 3
**lets give 2 combos each, total 4

when all that said and considering his line preflop

imo he has like 21 hand combos when he ch/rAI river -> u beat like 14 of them ~65-70%

a dont think that checking back on river is good as played so i bet call river expecting to get value from his overplaying AJs(3x)/JT(9x) and some % of random bluffs if he has me beat well played

i realy dont think that he is that good and thinking player to limp/call ch/c ch/c ch/raI to get max value from induced bluffs and take value from over pairs with boats and i think is more likely that he has AJ/JT then 33/TT/JJ/55

in 22$ mtt i think he can show up even with smth like 67hh or smth like that #ivseenitall


Reply
Quote
gusma
Joined: 07.10.2007
BlackMember

I disagree that a $22 is gonna bluff KQ,98 or even JT. I do not see b/c as a profitable play here.


Reply
Quote
TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008
BlackMember

If u say so..gf then

Hint: They dont bluff when they shove JT/AJ and I add KQhh/98h cos every one have some blufing hands in their range


Reply
Quote
zachrina Topic starter
zachrina
Joined: 05.12.2012
PokerStrategist

Thanks guys,

Wish I'd have called now to settle it but suppose these are situations we face regularly and just have to learn from them.


Reply
Quote
chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007
Elite Grinder

Hi all,

This is not a situation you see regularly. Fold in these spots and be glad very few people bluff in this spot.


Reply
Quote
TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008
BlackMember

Originally posted by chenny8888
Hi all,

This is not a situation you see regularly. Fold in these spots and be glad very few people bluff in this spot.

chenny u dont think that unknow will take villain line with AJ/JT???


Reply
Quote
chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007
Elite Grinder

Hi all,

Originally posted by TheRebuz

Originally posted by chenny8888
Hi all,

This is not a situation you see regularly. Fold in these spots and be glad very few people bluff in this spot.

chenny u dont think that unknow will take villain line with AJ/JT???

I honestly do not think this. Maybe at most 1/4 of the time they will overplay JT this badly, and maybe 1/10 of the time AJ. It will certainly happen. But overplays are generally not on the river.


Reply
Quote
TheRebuz
Joined: 12.10.2008
BlackMember

Originally posted by chenny8888
Hi all,

Originally posted by TheRebuz

Originally posted by chenny8888
Hi all,

This is not a situation you see regularly. Fold in these spots and be glad very few people bluff in this spot.

chenny u dont think that unknow will take villain line with AJ/JT???

I honestly do not think this. Maybe at most 1/4 of the time they will overplay JT this badly, and maybe 1/10 of the time AJ. It will certainly happen. But overplays are generally not on the river.

so what r u putting villain on?


Reply
Quote
chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007
Elite Grinder

Hi all,

TT/33, sometimes JJ. Just not enough bluffs, basically.


Reply
Quote
Share: