Highlight Thread - The Nuts Turn into crap

Hello guys, we are trying out some new formats for our hand evaluation forums this year. I would like to thank cantunho for sharing his hand, and everyone else for joining in the discussion.

Originally posted by cantunho
Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Reproduzir mão

$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU$100.50:///////;SB$69.56:///////;BB (Hero)$110.22:///////;MP2$100.00:///////;MP3$108.37:///////;CO$89.99:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BB with A:h, A:s.
3 folds, BU raises to $2.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $9.00, BU calls $6.50.

Flop: ($18.5) 2:s, J:s, T:c (2 players)
Hero bets $10.00, BU calls $10.00.

Turn: ($38.5) 9:s (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $23.00, Hero calls $23.00.

River: ($84.5) 4:c (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $58.50(All-In), Hero folds, BU gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $84.5.

vilain 22/18
WWSF 48
W$SD 38

Aggfreq river 26

My opinion:
Bet or Check-call the Flop (both reasonable options)
Check-call the Turn
Check-fold the River

Villain's stats indicate that he is a rather straightforward player. 22/18 implies that he is probably on the tighter side, and while the WWSF isn't too low (not too far from 50), when we compare it to his preflop tightness, it probably means that he is not going to be getting too out of line.

Flop: The decision between betting and checking is fairly close.
Betting is good because AA is really strong PF and is pretty far ahead of villain's Flop range
Checking is good because
-Villain has fewer X:s X:s draws which can continue against a bet
-We don't mind giving away free cards as much when we have the A:s ourselves
-Villain has no A:s X which can bluff raise or make a light float against us
-It is important to add strong hands in our checking range so that villain cannot value bet super thinly with QJ JT J9 once we start checking

Turn: This is pretty much the worst card in the deck for Hero. As you can see, Hero's equity dropped very dramatically, from 74 -> 55%. Checking is a pretty easy decision. Without the A:s , Hero could definitely consider check-fold Turn.

Board: 2:spade:J:spade:T:club:
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    74.76%  74.62%   0.14% { AhAs }
MP3    25.24%  25.11%   0.14% { 99, 22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, As8s, Ks8s, As7s, As6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, 6s4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo-ATo, KJo+ }

Board: 2:spade:J:spade:T:club: 9:spade:
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    55.28%  55.28%   0.00% { AhAs }
MP3    44.72%  44.72%   0.00% { 99, 22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, As8s, Ks8s, As7s, As6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, 6s4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo-ATo, KJo+ }

Board: 2:spade:J:spade:T:club: 9:spade:
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    37.48%  37.48%   0.00% { AdAh }
MP3    62.52%  62.52%   0.00% { 99, 22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, As8s, Ks8s, As7s, As6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, 6s4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s, AQo-ATo, KJo+ }

River: A straightforward opponent might sometimes bet a hand like K:s J:h on the Turn for thin value and protection but is unlikely to follow through on his bluff on the river. He would also be unlikely to turn 89s or AT into a Turn+River 2-street bluff.

Main takeaway of this hand:
Learn to evaluate how equities change on different runouts. In general, when a particular card hurts our range and strengthens our opponent's range, we should be more inclined to play passively with most of our range.

Open Question:
How are we playing our various strong hands on the flop? Check-call? Bet? Check-raise? Let me know what you think.