How to value 4bet

Hi guys, Zhuvyte posted a hand here where he asks a quite interesting question: how wide should we 4bet/call against aggressive 3bettors?

This is a topic worth talking about, and hopefully you will exit this page with a better understanding of 3bet/4bet/5bet dynamics.

So, this is the hand:

Originally posted by Zhuvyte
I wonder if it's a possible way to defend against an overly aggressive 3-bettor? This one was almost 15%, in SB vs CU situation I expect it to be even wider.

Or should it be 4bet/fold or 4bet/shove with a wider range (say 77+)?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $25 (100 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG: $36.37 (145.5 bb)
MP: $24.50 (98 bb)
Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $34.21 (136.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7 7
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.62, BTN folds, SB raises to $2.20, BB folds, Hero calls $1.58

Flop: ($4.65) T 9 T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB folds

Results:

Spoiler

$4.65 pot ($0.21 rake)
Final Board: T 9 T
SB mucked and lost (-$2.20 net)
Hero mucked 7 7 and won $4.44 ($2.24 net)

First, let me just say that Zhuvyte posted incomplete information on villain and this is a common problem. We don't know how big the sample is, and we don't now VPIP/PFR stats. The only thing we know is the overall 3bet. This stat discussion would lead us to a lot of paragraphs, I adress this very topic in one video of my series "10 Tips to Get Out of the Micros", it will soon come out. Let me just say it's very important to place the stats "in context" with other stats, the situation, sample, etc.

So for the purposes of this topic let's approach the question "how wide should I value 4bet" in a theoretical manner.

So, let's take the example of this hand and assume villain is 3betting SB vs CO exactly 15%. What does that tell us? Well, if villain doesn't want to fold to much to our 4bets he needs to defend around 50% of his 3bet range, meaning around 7.5% of range. So, in very simple terms, you can value 4bet if your hand has more than 50% equity against that range. Otherwise you're probably better of calling the 3bet.

So let's try to give villain a 7.5% range and see how 77 stands:

       Equity  Vencer  Empate
MP2    58.21%  57.43%   0.78% { 55+, ATs+, AQo+ }
MP3    41.79%  41.01%   0.78% { 77 }

This is a somewhat "depolarized" approach to villain's range. He could construct his range entirely different:

       Equity  Vencer  Empate
MP2    51.54%  51.24%   0.30% { 99+, 44-22, AQs+, A5s-A2s, AQo+ }
MP3    48.46%  48.16%   0.30% { 77 }

So, even if we are optimistic, 77 will not ever be a good 4bet/call against a 15% 3bet. So, what hand will? You could check that out against different types of range constructions, but it should be around TT+, AK area. Interestingly enough, AQ is hardly ever a good value 4bet, if we assume villain never calls a 4bet (this is an important caveat).

I already can hear the question popping in your head: "yeah double, but what if villain does no defend this way against 4bets and he only continues with a stronger range?"

Well, that has to mean that villain is overfolding to 4bets, he does not have the luxury of 3betting 15% and only continue with a strong range against 4bet, unless he is very open to exploitation. And in that case we should be 4bet/folding a lot with blockers hands (hands that block the value combos that villain is value jamming) and only 4bet/call hands that are >50% equity against the range we think villain jams.

So, as an example, let's say villain 3bets 15% polarized but only shoves against our 4bet with TT+/AK (3.50%), so he's folding to 4bets ~76% of the time. This is highly exploitable. So I'd suggest 4bet/calling hands that have >50% equity, which in this case is only QQ+ (although I'd 4bet/call AK for bloker reasons), and then 4bet/fold a lot. I'm not sure what "a lot" means, of course you can't 4bet everytime every hand (specially in non-Zoom tables), but a good starting point would be to double up the balaced 4bet/folds you had. So against a balanced 15% range you would 4bet/fold 3.5% range, against such an exploitable guy, 4betting him 7% is a good approach (something like K8s-K7s, ATo-A8o, KJo-K9o, QJo).

So, what have we learned from this hand?

[*] It's reasonably easy to find out a good approximation to a value 4bet range, depending on villain's 3bet frequency, you just find out hands that have >50% equity against half of that 3bet frequency (assuming standard pre flop sizes)
[*] Once you have reads on villain (he is splashy, or he folds to much to 4bets) you can deviate from your standard approach and try to exploit this pre flop leak of his.
[*] Against a 15% range you can't really 4bet for value hands like 77 or AQ.

Questions: How do you think this dynamic will change if villain starts calling 4bets?