Hi guys, itaba posted this hand in Advanced Hand Discussions and I think it deserves a more detailed analysis since it's a common spot, when we have a very strong hand and face agression from a very tight player. Thanks to itaba for posting and thank you all for reading and participating. You can check out the original post here.
Originally posted by itaba
Villain seems like a normal NL50 reg 18/16, low WWSF and low W$SD but small sample 280 hands only, i know im always below at river, i know always a fold at river he have all the big sets. . but what if i instead had TT, or JJ?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com
Hero (MP) ($51.56)
CO ($88.07)
Button ($51.71)
SB ($41.72)
BB ($57.19)
UTG ($52.75)Preflop: Hero is MP with 6
, 6
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, Button calls $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75Flop: ($4) 6
, Q
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, Button raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $5Turn: ($18) J
(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $11.45, Hero calls $11.45River: ($40.90) 2
Hero checks, Button bets $32.01 (All-In), Hero foldsTotal pot: $40.90 | Rake: $1.84
Results below:
Spoiler
Button didn't show
My opinion: easy fold turn
So, we have very valuable information on villain. 200 hands is more that enough to say that he is extremely tight pre flop and not agressive post flop. And this makes a world of difference in this hand. We even have a "bonus" factor which is being in a multi way pot. Our opponent is already prone to only be agressive with nut hands, but in a multi-way pot that is even more true.
So, we could make that argument that he also plays like this flop with QTs. That could be true, although I would not take for granted that he calls QTs pre flop BU vs MP's range, that's generally too loose and the close gap between PFR and VPIP shows that villain is not flat-happy pre flop. Also, I do believe that this guy mostly calls with QQ pre flop against MP range, they tend to do that a lot. I also think it's very unlikely for villain to slowplay pre flop AA and then raise flop in a mwp. We don't need equilab to see that if villain only raises QQ/TT on the flop we should be folding right on the flop. But we are not THAT sure that villain does not have QTs in his range, that he never plays KK+ like this and that he never ever plays a hand like KJ like this. So the call on the flop doesn't look terrible to me.
Now, the turn we do really only have a bluffcatcher, villain is not value betting QTs anymore (even if it is in his range flop) and the "miracle" bluff that he makes on the flop now has a pair or a straight a lot of the time, so that doesn't help us either. So if we have a bluffcatcher and villain is not bluffing we have a very easy decision, even with a hand as nutty as a set.
itaba also asks what should we do if we have JJ or TT. Well, JJ should not be in out bet/call range on the flop. We should probably check the flop and if we bet we should fold to the raise. TT is actually a lot stronger than 66, because now we win against 66, which villain absolutely plays like this. In worst case scenario ff villain has all QQ and none of QTs we are in a 50/50 situation which is not terrible, so anything else is a bonus. I would exploitatively play aggressively with TT on the flop, villain is simply not bluffing or thin value betting so no point in slowplaying our hand.
So, what can we learn from this hand:
[*] Even with a small sample of 200 hands, we can make huge adjustments in our game to increase our winrate, if you have the stats you should use them wisely.
[*] Nits don't like bluffing and they don't like thin value betting or raising, so this means that in a lot of spots, facing agression from a nit, you'll find yourself realizing that you have a bluffcatcher, even with a hand as strong as a set. So act as you have a bluffcatcher, and forget the absolute strength of your hand.
Question for you guys, what's the best way to play KJ here?
![:]](https://www.pokerstrategy.com/_forum-runtime/wp-content/uploads/wpforo/emoticons/pokerstrategy-legacy/basics/pleased.gif ":]")
Solved it myself kthanx