My winrate is 15% of what it should be over 70,000 hands

Originally posted by vmarqui
all in ev has variance too. it isn't what you whould have won.

I think what you mean is that the EV calculations of HEM and PokerTracker all have biases. (You might also notice that PT3 and PT4 have completely different biases and PT3, PT4, and HEM all give different results.)

However your main point is extremely important. The EV charts produced by tracking software are not what your should have won nor what you are due to win in the future. They are biased calculations of historical luck and not predictions of the future.

I don't think you understand how brutal variance can be.

Taking your nl10 wr and rounding up to 2bb/100

In a 100k sample you should win 20BIs

However depending on your standard dev there's a better chance of you losing >10BIs than winning 18-22BIs in that sample...

Like its been said rather than worrying about variance just focus on things you can improve and get the winrates up. Plus higher wr = lower varience

Originally posted by tokyoaces

Originally posted by vmarqui
all in ev has variance too. it isn't what you whould have won.

I think what you mean is that the EV calculations of HEM and PokerTracker all have biases. (You might also notice that PT3 and PT4 have completely different biases and PT3, PT4, and HEM all give different results.)

However your main point is extremely important. The EV charts produced by tracking software are not what your should have won nor what you are due to win in the future. They are biased calculations of historical luck and not predictions of the future.

I don't think he meant the calculation biases of the tracking software. He will have meant the fact that EV graphs don't take into account the postflop or preflop play before it was all in, therefore you can get 90% of your money in when you are ahead, then he hits his gutshot on the river and you can't fold. Your EV goes down 100% of what you actually lost when the fact is you got very unlucky. Obviously it works in the opposite way too

Yep, setups are unfortunately also not accounted for... if for example you constantly run into the top of your opponent's range, your EV line will go down even though your decisions might have been +EV vs a range.

That's why there can be huge EV upswings/downswings, regardless of how you play. If a bad player hits the nuts and goes all in with them somehow, their EV will go up. If a good player goes all in 2nd nuts vs nuts, his EV will go down...

-SF

This looks like a lol post. You are having a downswing in NL2 and you jump up like 5 or more limits to play NL50 HU ? Another day you will come up with the idea to give it a try at NL200 and go bust...

Hi metza,
I found this video from the mighty BogdanPS on the theory of variance for you:

I think there is a whole series on this stuff and it's quite an eye-opener!

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/25155/

Regards,

Mal.