AA river line/sizings

1st.
Try to consider how many possible combinations of Kx there is and how many qq-99.

2nd.
Do you think you opponent would be able to laydown a Kx at this board if overjamming the river? As you mentioned the fd missed so he might put hero on a bluff, and i doubt he put hero on a 2 here since preflop action.

3rd.
if you do bet 11$ yes, u might get money from a larger range, but u lose value aswell since u don't get maximum value from a big part of his range, since it's hard to imagine villain to lay down Kx even if we shove here.
(instead of +31$ u only get 11$ which means u dont get maximum value out of the situation and those +20 u can make from Kx ranges will be better than to gain 11$ from a larger range in this chase Kx + 99-QQ)

hope im not too confusing

Originally posted by Gadgaard
3rd.
if you do bet 11$ yes, u might get money from a larger range, but u lose value aswell since u don't get maximum value from a big part of his range, since it's hard to imagine villain to lay down Kx even if we shove here.
(instead of +31$ u only get 11$ which means u dont get maximum value out of the situation and those +20 u can make from Kx ranges will be better than to gain 11$ from a larger range in this chase Kx + 99-QQ)

i think if u bet $11 otr, he's always jamming Kx, i honestly cant imagine 90% villains not shoving Kx cuz "they have the nutz" - so it makes no difference vs this part of his range, its getting in anyways - not losing value
but u def lose value from underpairs if u jam river... and possible FD spazzes

Why would anyone even consider jamming Kx over a 11$ bet? He will never get called by worse and will always get snapped by another Kx or better, therefor its not a bluff( no better hands fold) and its not a valuebet ( no worse hands call), so no, kx is not jamming anyway if he is somewhat competent. If you yourself are jamming a Kx in this spot your just dumb. Just because your hand is ''the nutz'' and you do have the best hand with Kx 90% of the time you still can't value shove it.

And given the board runout its most likely he has some Kx type of hand that won't fold to a big bet or even a jam. You also have to consider that there's way more combos of Kx, especially if TT-QQ are sometimes a 3bet so you pretty much have to play this river as if he has a KX and extract value from that.

, i honestly cant imagine 90% villains not shoving Kx cuz "they have the nutz"

This is where I have a different opinion. I doubt many opponents will jam Kx here but call your 11$ bet instead. Try to take it from his Point of view, why would he raise here? he can't gain anymore value from the situation by jamming, because if u bluffed with busted fd there's no way u call a jam, if u have Kx u split, if u hold 99-QQ it's very unlikely that u call aswell. If u hold either AA or 88 he lose.
There's simply no reason for him to reraise if u bet 11$ since only plit or better hands will call.

Originally posted by Gadgaard
1st.
Try to consider how many possible combinations of Kx there is and how many qq-99.

2nd.
Do you think you opponent would be able to laydown a Kx at this board if overjamming the river? As you mentioned the fd missed so he might put hero on a bluff, and i doubt he put hero on a 2 here since preflop action.

3rd.
if you do bet 11$ yes, u might get money from a larger range, but u lose value aswell since u don't get maximum value from a big part of his range, since it's hard to imagine villain to lay down Kx even if we shove here.
(instead of +31$ u only get 11$ which means u dont get maximum value out of the situation and those +20 u can make from Kx ranges will be better than to gain 11$ from a larger range in this chase Kx + 99-QQ)

hope im not too confusing

+1

Get max value from his Kx range, and ignore the 99-QQ as the small bet looses u a lot of value in the long term.

The reason for the check I think they think of doing it in order to induce a bluff in the case he is on a busted fdraw, if he is then the more +EV line to take is to check and let vilain put his money voluntarily in the pot.

I doubt all ppl will raise K against you if you bet 11$. It is true they have the best hand a lot of the time, but the raise doesn't get called by worse most of the time too. Also consider the preflop play, villian is unlikely to have QQ. And some of those pairs might not call on turn.

Originally posted by liguolong
I doubt all ppl will raise K against you if you bet 11$. It is true they have the best hand a lot of the time, but the raise doesn't get called by worse most of the time too. Also consider the preflop play, villian is unlikely to have QQ. And some of those pairs might not call on turn.

yes, i agree, vs a competent opponent, i will probably overjam myself vs his percieved range of Kx.... keep in mind that villain here is a fish, which, in the video,
jammed all his $32 over our ~$25 river overbet.... so its pretty hard to imagine him not overjamming vs our smallish bet

assuming mp is competent
a decent player does not get to the river with a fd or 99-QQ
he's got a good K an overwhelming % of the time and very rarely 88
the only reason why you'd check is that he vbets his top pair, in which case he won't ship and will almost always fold to a c/r so you don't get paid enough. In the best case scenario, he will vb small to induce and snap your c/r but few will do that
2 options for betting: less than 1/2p if the guy has a really low wtsd and ship otherwise, no other bet sizing makes sense. I expect AK will stick around to a ship. Shipping it is!

vs fish very happy to bet bet ship