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Good sample size for stats

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RainDeath6
Joined: 14.04.2017

Good day everyone, I’m interested in the answer to the question: what is good sample size for poker stat in NLH (in Hud or PopUp)? I'm interested especially in HU NL cash, but probably in 6-max cash or tournaments number will be the same. By "good sample size" i mean that sample sizes with low average deviation, not more than 5% (of course lower will be better), so using that sample size i can say that that if specific stat on player is deviating more than on 5%, i can be sure that this player is deviating in this spot. For example, good cbet % in SRP HU will be 65%, so if i have necessary number of samples on player and i see his stat "Flop Cb in SRP" not between 60-70% i can guess that probably this player is under/over Cbets flop.

My initial thoughts was that 100 sample sizes is good, but that's just only my own feelings. I was trying to find info on that question in the internet and i find some article (whose content make a lot of sense for me) in which author was writing that 30+ sample sizes will be perfect, but just for looking for extreme deviations. For example if Flop CB stat was very high (28/30=93%) or very low (4/30=13%), that`s probably already say that opponent is deviating in that spot (perfect is 20/30=65%), but if it's stat was around 50% (15/30) or 75% (23/30) that's probably don't say anything, because of deviation using that sample. So using this info we can make a conclusion that the more sample size we use then the less will be the deviation %, as in these example with 30 sample sizes deviation % can be +-15% and for sample sizes that we're finding, let's for example it will be 100 samples, deviation will be +-5%. But these numbers of deviations are just examples and not saying that actually especially for 30 samples deviations will be +-15% and for 100 5%.

So how can we find good sample size with dev. 5% or lower ? Maybe there is some math formula that can calculate this? I was trying to find these but all that i find it's calculator which calculates sample size for people who completed the survey using population size, confidence level % and margin error % and some articles about this. But probably that's unsuitable or i just don't understand how to use it in our case.
Maybe somebody already know the answer what is good sample size and/or how to calculate it, or just have thoughts about it? I would be grateful for any answers or thoughts, everything will be interesting to read!


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nsavov
Joined: 24.09.2010

I don't know the formula. But you can ask ChatGPT or other AI software for the formula (or the answer). I wouldn't trust it to do the calculations, though... Then you can use a math solutions app from your phone that reads the numbers from an image.

I used to trust stats "completely" at 200 overall hands.

But that doesn't mean I was blocking stats before that. I just put some obscure number like 7 or 9 as min sample on each stat. If the guy raised 2/9 buttons, even with deviation, it will be +EV to assume he's on the tighter side. 2/9 buttons raised are way better than not having a clue. You may be missing on some fish if you wait around to confirm your stats.

Another thing is, the collection of stats as a whole give you more of an idea how he plays. Stats work together. If someone looks tight but you are not sure because of the sample size, check the CBet. If it's higher, it's a good assumption that he has a stronger range, thus tighter. How many times have you played against a guy with 90% cbet thinking "I'ma check raise his ass with crap 8-) " before seeing 9/8/2 preflop stats


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RainDeath6
Joined: 14.04.2017

Originally posted by nsavov
I don't know the formula. But you can ask ChatGPT or other AI software for the formula (or the answer). I wouldn't trust it to do the calculations, though... Then you can use a math solutions app from your phone that reads the numbers from an image.

Yeah, that's seems like a good idea, maybe I'll try that in the near future.

Originally posted by nsavov
I used to trust stats "completely" at 200 overall hands.

I've asked this question to different players and it seems that everyone defines "good sample" size as 200-300 samples on average, so it actually makes sense.

Originally posted by nsavov
Another thing is, the collection of stats as a whole give you more of an idea how he plays. Stats work together

I agree, this is very true and although it is obvious if you think about it, but sometimes I forget about this point :f_biggrin:
Thanks for your opinion and answers :f_drink:


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