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Is running it twice really running it twice?

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Stackoffski
Joined: 08.09.2021

So, let's say you win the first race as a favourite. Well, some winning cards are dead now, and your opponent has a greater change to hit the 2nd race then he/she had the first time, right?

Conversely, if you get unlucky as the favourite the first race, you have more chance of winning the second race.

So, I guess running it twice is not really running the same hand twice with the same cards and chances both times.

My question: is there any downside to running it twice because of this? I'm not sure how to think about this.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Indeed the cards of the first run and burn cards will be dead for the 2nd run. Only thing for me to run it twice that you reduce the variance a little bit.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Stackoffski
Joined: 08.09.2021

Yeah I'm all for reducing variance, but I am not sure if by running it twice as a favorite you give your opponent some undeserved equity because some good cards are dead from the first run.

It probably just evens out, but I am not sure ... mathematically ...

I want to reduce variance, but not give my opponent more chance of winning, not the slightest bit.


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Stackoffski
Joined: 08.09.2021

BTW, they still use burncards online? I didn't know that!! :f_grin:


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Yes, but if you lose the first then there are "more" your cards in the deck and it evens out.

Imagine running it X times, where X is the number of possible combos. Like on the turn X would be 44. As all possible outcomes are dealt, you would win exactly your equity share. Running it multiple times doesn't affect the equity or EV, just reduces variance.


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Stackoffski
Joined: 08.09.2021

Thank you guys, SDK & Kyyberi!

Everytime I was thinking: of course it's that simple, I thought: but wait, actually because this and that ... haha :f_biggrin:.
I had to do a simplified "simulation" to be sure it is indeed that simple!

I'll be running it twice again when they ask me then ... except when they shove a draw in my face haha.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by Stackoffski
BTW, they still use burncards online? I didn't know that!! :f_grin:
Not sure about burn cards online. It's not visible I think.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

There are some reasons to not use or use it. E.g. let's say you have short stack in the table that you would like to either rebuy to bigger one or leave to get someone else there. Could be good reason to only run once so that said player either loses whole stack or doubles and becomes deeper.

On other hand if you have aggro opponent on your left and you don't want him to get deeper stack running it twice could help on that.

So these sort of things can add some "side value" into consideration.


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