Hi,
Would like to know if EV of cold calling AK vs EV of 3betting vs UTG, 11% open raise range. Somebody knows solution? This generally applies for any situation where we want to compare EV of cold calling and 3betting.
I think that it is nearly impossible to accurately calculate EV of cold calling because decision tree postflop is too complex. We could do database analysis
and compare winnings for cold calling AK and 3betting, and could conclude what works for us better. But what works in general for all players better? we can still make average winnings of e.g. 10000 players from different players and if e.g. 3betting AK has much higher winnings than cold calling then it is super likely that it has higher EV. Is something like this done? However it would be only experimental result which is hardly applied on other hands, open raise ranges etc.
How could we calculate EV of cold calling AK? I think we can for postflop use 2 random strategies, and calculate EV of AK on all possible boards (around 1.7 million boards) vs villain range. The EV of AK using random strategies for both players postflop, is approximately similar to EV of AK using to 2 strategies that are equally good.
In order to simulate this, we would need to iterate over all possible boards, and for each board iterate over all possible random actions postflop for both players, and for each set of random actions postflop calculate EV of AK vs villains range. Then we calculate average EV over all boards which is total EV of cold calling AK (assuming all other players fold behind us and we play HU, this is what I want to compare)
