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nl100 KQ, top2 turned into bluff

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urmo1
Joined: 02.03.2008

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

MP: $146.20
CO: $129.54
Hero (BTN): $110.95
SB: $104.55
BB: $109.73
UTG: $97.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with K♦ Q♣
1 fold, MP raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.50) Q♦ 6♣ K♠ (2 players)
MP bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($14.50) T♠ (2 players)
MP bets $9.50, Hero calls $9.50

River: ($33.50) 9♠ (2 players)
MP bets $11, Hero raises to $45
(Rake: $2.50)

villain was 17/15 over 2k hands, MP open 16%, flop cb 68%, turn cb 71% and riv cb 38%, wtsd 24%, w$sd 24% and raise cbet 4% (from that i assume he plays straightforwardly mostly.

anyways. OTR i figured im facing Jx a considerable amount of the time and he also may have stuff like sets and KTs in his range. i highly doubt he EVER has flush considering the sizing which seems to be blocking bet basically.

ps. i called pre because there was a fishy player in the blinds.


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7 replies
urmo1
Joined: 02.03.2008

up


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i would prob just call the river, as there aren't many better hands that can fold out, if he blockbets Jx, then he defo calls the raise, and pretty much all we want to fold out is QQ,KK,TT,66,KQ, which isn't a ton of combos, so i call, but im a :f_biggrin: @ 6max


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yh I think this is one of the BEST hands in our bluff catching range, so if I was going to bluff here (which is great imo) I think i'd pick a hand that has a lot less showdown value than KQ here.

also worth saying he has MORE flush combo's than we do for defo, as his range to bet the flop is way wider than ours to call, speshly with the Ks on the flop.


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BC1989RF
Joined: 09.04.2010

I like it more if you have QsK and also if the board is like K :spade:Q :diamond:6 :spade:T :club:9 :spade:

also worth saying he has MORE flush combo's than we do for defo, as his range to bet the flop is way wider than ours to call, speshly with the Ks on the flop.

Disagree
Depends on Heros flop play but with such a flatting range

im usually defendin 80%+ of my backdoor flushdraws --> ~12 combos of flushes OTR.
villain turns out to have only 6 combos of flushes otr with a 16% pf opening range with 100% cbetting frequencies.


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Originally posted by BC1989RF
villain turns out to have only 6 combos of flushes otr with a 16% pf opening range with 100% cbetting frequencies.

This can't be true. You're saying that we peel MORE spade/spade combo's OTB than he opens, he cbets 100% of those combos and we defend 80% of our BD fd's (bluff none of them?) surely he'll then barrel almost all of his S/S hands on the turn as well?

From your range we get to the river with only 7 combo's of spade/spade and that's assuming we defend the flop with 67 78 A4 and A5 suited all of which I think it slightly ambitious (although A4 and A5 possible I think we'd do much better bluffing with these) I think with a 100% cbet (which is obviously not right but w/e) he can get to the river with all 7+ a couple more J8, Q8 etc + A6/7/8/2/3 (obv he wont have this entire range OTR ever, but still)


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BC1989RF
Joined: 09.04.2010

Sorry, prolly mispoke.
It was assuming hero floats flop 100% of his backdoor fd (its not that wide from a GTO point of view: defending every Kx, Qx, 6x, OESD, gutters and bdfd ~ 65% defending frequency - well vs such a tight player its too wide of a range) and calls turn 100% of spades.
Under these conditions yes hero has more flushes in his range.

I took such an opening range for villain:

and took 100% of bdfd. --> 8 combos otr.
{AsQs, AsJs, 8s7s, 7s6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s}

Anyway the whole point was to say that if we were abt to bluff shove the river OUR range is (lilbit) more entitled to do it than villain/has more flushes combos - except if we defend less OTF.

I dunno about our turn raising range and how it tweaks the whole stuff.


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Originally posted by BC1989RF
Anyway the whole point was to say that if we were abt to bluff shove the river OUR range is (lilbit) more entitled to do it than villain/has more flushes combos - except if we defend less OTF.

This is defo true. I think the %'s of each range is equally waited in flushes, just that our villain has a much wider range OTR than we do, hence why, as you say our range is more entitled to bluff here speshly when you factor in the legitimate bet/folds in our villains range as well.


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