NL200 AJs

villain did check the river btw obv. messed up the handhistories somehow..

If villain is that TAGish, that hasn't suited connectors in his open raising range you don't need a reason to bet, when you think you have the best hand 100% of the time and chance to him to bluffcatch with something like weaker Jx.

If villain is good and you expect him to have suited connectors, i'd check back the river because no weaker hands call our bet, which lets me think that bet is -ev and check is 0EV.

I cant recall his stats, but I think he seemed to be just a regular TAG that whas not too loose, nor too tight up to this point.

So I would definitely not discount SCs, and then I think that answers my own question about that the hand basically, i.e. that it is too thin to valuebet.

defo chk/back for me.

Unless you have a reason to bet, or know something about his tendencies you haven't shared. I think he can have QQ+ here sometimes as well board is pretty fucking scary for any 1p and even some 2p's.

No Value to be had vs someone decent and I don't think a chk/back here does anything to polarise your betting range OTR cos on boards this wet I dont think it matters.

127. I had a similar hand today with a similar board texture and I had 2/5 pot typed in to bet last second I pressed pot and scrolled and said out loud gl calling here mate. When we overbet he basically just can't call and weak though he may say why are you betting so big with the top of your range? He is more likely to just say 5 6 7 9 j my queens don't look good here.

@pleno the ob otr is quite valueowning don't you think?
Ok you make fold 6+6+3, however, He's not ch/c them ott all the time + he will hero call sometimes. ( you dont have that many 8x imho and there is still a lot of missed)

It seems like a waste to turn AJ into a bluff for me

Hey,

The important part is that we can have a bunch of 8x hands in our range whilst our opponent (raising from utg+1) will most likely have few 8x, meaning he shouldn't really have a calling range.

So it's std to call 98o or 87o ip vs utg+1?

Coz If not I dont think we have that many of them tbh, however, I dont know the gameflow of 200 at all.
:))
I'd just assume that he has some kind of sd value and If he ch/c ott I think he's mostly bluffcatching the river. However, with the ob u kind of make him fold this-worse range?
And I think that we can get more value by normal sizing than turning our hand into a bluff since we can't be sure he has even hands like QQ-AA all the time.

Is it very lame reasoning? Could you let me know where are my assumptions wrong? Thx a lot !:))