Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #37 03.06.12

turn: The problem by betting the turn is that we don't know if the fish will fold.
river: On the river it doesn't make sense for BTN to call the turn and fold this river. So if the reg is solid and doesn't over folds on river (what is his wtsd,wsd,fold river bet stats?) I do not like river shove either.

ps. : first again! ♠_cool:

Preflop I thought at first its bad to call when BB has low 3bet value, and reg also calls, but hero is getting good odds, so maybe he can call to try to hit monster, or catch an ace and win vs KK, QQ hands for example.

Flop I guess OOP nothing is posible to do, so check is ok.

Turn we have nothing to represent, don't know, fish could easily have slowplay JJ+. BTN as he is reg, if he would have a hand, he would probably bet the flop to get value from fish, so more likely that he has no hand.

As played river - I don't know what BTN could have there. If he has Jx, he might fold, but if he would have this, I think he would bet flop. I don't do myself such bluffs.

i think preflop, the call is fine because we're getting good odds and the fish is in the hand as well.

Flop: i would check/fold

Turn: as they both are checking behind we can bet/fold the Turn as pure bluff.

But I don't see their range is so capped as Hero said. I still see there slowplaying some Monsters 99,J9,JJ (BTN) and the fish could also playing 99,J9,JJ,QQ,KK,AA like this.

But there are also some draws which could call the Turn, so therefore if we bet the turn we should think about bet/fold the River as well. And the BTN can have there a lot of draws because he is stealing a lot. So he can have many FDs, some gutshots (78, KQ,) and also some OESD (QT, T8) and also combodraws like gutshot+FD. and of course as hero mentioned some 2nd Pairs and AJ,KJ,QJ,JT.

So I see BTNs calling Range in the Turn like this: JJ, 99, AJs, KJs, QTs+, J9s, T8s+, 98s, KdQd, 8d7d, AJo, KJo, J9o = these are 82 combinations.

On the River I think BTN is always calling: JJ, 99, J9s, 98s, J9o
and sometimes he is calling AJ (maybe 8 combinations out of 16).
so he is calling 44 combinations.

So if he is calling we loose 44*40,47=1790,8

if Villain is folding we win: 38*34=1292

So the push should be not profitable. But I think we can bet smaller without getting more calls from Villian.

so if we bet like 25$ we are only loosing: 44*25=1100 and our bet on the River is profitable then.

Ps: maybe the Range is not that fine because i don't play SH, and i'm also far from playing NL50

pre-flop - I don't like the 3B sizing. we are raising 3x on BTN min-raise.
should be bigger because we are SB and going to be OOP.
plus, our hand is nothing special, so it would be better to take it down pre-flop than try to play it post-flop.

after the BB fish basically cold 4B's, I would be looking for the exit.
but since it's so ridiculously small, and BTN calls, we are priced in to see the flop.

the problem is: was his min 4B a pot-sweetener or an attempt to get BTN or us to re-raise big, or is he just a fish that doesn't even "know" he just 4B ?

flop is certainly not good for our hand. check/fold is our line

on the turn, my feelings are mixed.
we are donking into two players with no hand and our only chance of ending up with a hand is backdoor flush or runner-runner for straight. not great either way.
and either of the villains could be slow playing a real hand.

on the other hand, if we are going to have ANY realistic chance of stealing this pot, we need to act before one of the other players does, because we can never call here. the 5♠ means neither of our longshot draws is still alive. at best, we are now drawing to 3 outs (aces) and probably could still lose if we hit.
so if we are going to take it, now is the time.

but - I still wonder.
right now there is only $5 (< 10%) of our stack in the pot.
after our turn bet, over 25% of our stack is in the pot, we don't have a hand, and with only one card to come, we are not likely to end up with a hand.

the result seems like good news bad/news.
one player folded, but we are still in the pot w/ the decent player.
and his call could mean a lot of things.
like he's happy to let us build the pot . . . .

the river
SPR is now 1.2.
it's hard for me to think that any hand that called the turn will fold after the river.
if he was playing 8T, he just made the straight
if he has been slowplaying us, we are doomed.
so I guess our only hope is that we can get him to fold 22-66 and 88 or a better A?

if it were me, I'd be wondering how I ended up w/ $14.50 in this pot.
I would not have the heart or the read to bluff shove here.

the only positive I can see is that the BTN is supposed to be decent, so he could lay down here.
but he did not lay down on the turn and he was only getting 2.57:1 w/ one card to come.
what draw does that make sense for? nothing really, so we need him to fold an actual made hand, I think.

btw - I guess the spoiler is set up wrong?
we already know the result, and it does not reveal the BTN hand, so not sure what the point was.
if the BTN fold was hidden, or our action was hidden, that would make more sense.

Preflop: I would 3bet bigger against min raise~4$. And then after the fish comes over the top, I don't know, I would fold. Yes we get great odds but our hand is so marginal and weak that it can bring us nothing but trouble in multiway pot.

flop Check/fold

turn I don't like this bluff against two players in position at us, just not enough fold equity.

river Well since we were bluffing turn, I like river shove.I know I shouldn't like that and we are probably beaten, but I would do that ♦ Some weak top pairs, second pairs and draws will fold.

PreFlop: Priced in

Flop: Check/Fold.

Turn: Check/Fold, 3 Guys in the pot + OP for river.

River : Check/Fold.

Hello,
At first we need stats from Villain!
We dont kwow, how often he folds at flop, turn , river!
BTN seems to be a callingstation!I would c/f flop, c/f turn, and c/f river.
But as played, i would b/f the river, and don´t push it! The BTN could easy has a pair, that he couldnt fold!
Greetz
Zoty

BU is openraising very weak, only 2bb, I would 3bet to 9bb=$4.5; As played, BB and BU gives us good odds for call, but the problem is:

• we will be OOP against two players postflop
• we can hit only two pairs or gutshot at best; we even won't hit FD, it is probable, that opponents hold our outs
• if we hit A or T, we have high reversed implied odds

Therefore I am inclined to fold it preflop

As played although they both checked flop, in their range are some slowplayed overpairs, pocket pairs, overcards, which will often want to stay in the play, I would't blufbet against these opponents.

Hello,

Preflop: Rather would advice to fold it preflop cause your main hope is to hit the GS draw or whatsoever. The pot already the flop is going to be pretty huge and the implied odds wont be very good. Nor you can never-ever be sure how good your T pair is not pair of Ace. If you calling the flop then most likely on the turn the pot would be already too big and might be difficult to get away. Rather fold it here.

As played
Postflop: Don't really like turning my hand into bluff in multiway pot. They could even have traps here so not worth.

Best Regards.