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Project: $50 -> $500 PLO

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fruktpuff
Joined: 24.09.2010

Well, SPR is Stack to Pot Ratio, so SPR of 3 means your stack is three times the pot (You have $30 behind and the pot is $10 atm).

With an SPR of 3, in the case he mentioned, if he can bet pot and get a call on the flop, he can get the stacks in on the turn, since the SPR will be <1, as pot will be $30 and stack down to $20.


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dydukas
Joined: 01.05.2009

Thanks fruktpuff. I'm used to calling this 'pots behinds'. :)


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

SPR is pretty crucial thing in PLO. The basic rule is that the higher the SPR is, the more better hand you need to play for stacks.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

Finally I got a small rungood and got over $500 mark. Bankroll is standing at $506.96. Didn't mark any hands today, so I post my final hand for pure entertainment. Let's meet Mr.Calling Station.

$0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 3 Players

Hero (SB): $35.87 (143.5 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $15.89 (63.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6 A K T
BTN folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) J 5 A (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

Turn: ($3.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

River: ($7.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.25, BB raises to $10.50, Hero raises to $32.12, BB calls $10.75 and is all-in

Results:

Spoiler

$50 pot ($1.00 rake)
Final Board: J 5 A 3 9
Hero showed 6 A K T and won $49.00 ($24.00 net)
BB showed T J 9 7 and lost (-$25 net)

I just love his miniraise on river. Bluff? Value? Does he know it even himself? Maybe he tried to induce me to bluff? After all, he snapcalled my shove... He CAN beat AK with a nut blocker, right? Oh, against AKxx with just K:h and no other hearts he is still 36% underdog at the river. Damn! I think it's an old truth in his country: one pair is good, two pairs is teh best!

It took 22 251 hands. I run a lot over EV, but my 6K hands of PLO25 contains a lot of setups and situations where I get almos my whole stack in with the nuts and then have to pay the 1/10 of pot at the river. I am not trying to make excuses, just giving my honest opinion why I am "just breakeven" in PLO25. Sample size is very small.

Average EV winrate in all stakes is 4,29bb/100. IF we take out all Zoom hands, it goes up to 13,12bb/100. But I have just 18K non-Zoom hands, so once again the sample size is pretty small.

As I look it back, I had a godrun at PLO5 which allowed me to get shots to PLO10 way earlier than I expected. PLO25 was the biggest obstacle, I just couldn't beat it. Every time I won at PLO10, I lost it at PLO25. It was up and down, up and down for several thousand hands.

The whole project took about 40 hours. After going through all the stakes from PLO2 to PLO25, I am 100% confident that there is still a lot of value. Even at PLO25 there are players who are making HUGE mistakes all the time. To make profit, just sit in there and wait for those mistakes.

Lot of people have asked me what am I going to do after this. Answer is simple, play poker. The only adjustment is to have more conservative BRM. $200 is the line where I drop to PLO10, but I will grind through PLO25 until I have $1K. Aggressive 20bin BRM changes to 40bin BRM.

It has been fun, I hope that this blog has motivated other micro players, and maybe give some new thoughts about PLO. If this has happened to you, or you have enjoyed this ride other way, I would be more than happy to hear about it.


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dydukas
Joined: 01.05.2009

Rename the blog to $50 -> $10.000 and move on!


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SneakyhanD
Joined: 29.10.2007

Very, Very, Very inspiring blog !

Really glad to see you achieved your challenge goal, and on top of that - you made in NO TIME !!! which is even more sick.


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fruktpuff
Joined: 24.09.2010

I'm not sure you said it.. but what was the final rake?


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I didn't say it, I will check it when I get home. I think it is somewhere around $450.


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wnbMG
Joined: 10.04.2011

congratz! :)
final graph? :)


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

I raked $475.29 during the project. It's kinda sick that I share 50/50 my winnings with the site, but that's the way it goes in micros. That's why micro players should really be aware of the rake system. As most sites reward loyalty, one should focus his games to one site mainly. There is usually a huge difference in total rakeback if you rake $500 to one site or $170 to three different sites a month.

My starting bankroll was $50, my net winnings were $341,52 so I got $115.44 back.

Here are the final graphs. First in dollars and then in big blinds.

Spoiler

Spoiler

When you first look at that $ graph, it looks like I have been very lucky as I run a lot over $EV. But if you look at that bb graph, you will see that I had a nice run between 5K and 7,5K hands and after that I have run pretty much with my EV. Big breakeven period from 13K hands and on, it was like winning in PLO10, losing in PLO25 and so on. But with 20K hand samplesize, analysing it is more of a fun than usefull. If that graph goes breakeven for 50K more hands, then I would be little worried.


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First of all GZ!
It's been a pleasure following your challenge!
I got to agree with dydukas, we wan't to see a project 500$ to 10 000!

Now about the graphs. They makes me kind of worried. Your EV is around 4.5bb/100. Is this what you can expect playing at PLO25? It seems like there is a fine line in that case between winning and losing. The worst part is, it's even BE after 10k and forward. I guess that's around where you mixed PLO10 and PLO25?
No offense! I juist got a bit exhausted by thinking when you as a coach play-ed/s BE. How am I supposed to make it ?(


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[x] too small sample size to make any conclusions about winrates... if you run into a setup or a suckout and go all in on river, your EV will go down 1BI. And a lot of those spots are unfortunately unavoidable. It's pretty similar if you keep running into the top of peoples' ranges, which can easily happen in 10k hands. If it was 100k hands, it would be easier to draw conclusions, although of course still not completely accurate.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

It's a small sample. As I said, if I keep playing breakeven for 50K more hands, then I would be little worried. But in 10K hands, anything can happen. I think that good player can expect to have about 10bb/100 winrate without rakeback.


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FlashDavin
Joined: 25.10.2011

You briefly mention rake and how micro players should be aware of it.

I play solely at Pokerstars NL 10 cash game zoom and play at least 30k hands a month (normally like 50k). How do I maximize the money I rake? All I see is the silly $10 deal for 1000 FPP.

This is something I have wondered forever, since I see other people raking wayyyy more than I do.


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

If you play that much, you should be Gold Star. And that gives you $75 bonus for 6250 FPP's. The ratio is $0.012 per FPP. Playing some FPP-satellites you might get to $0.015 per FPP if you know how to play them. But of course playing those satellites takes time, so if you buy bonuses and use that time ti grind normal games, you might actually win more in the long run.


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vonki
Joined: 18.03.2008

Hahah oooops, guess I missed the last page when I was reading this, thought you had a while to go before completing it

Congratulations!! :f_love: Lets see if I can pull it off in less hands in NL ;)


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PokerMindSet
Joined: 26.11.2008

Originally posted by Kyyberi
Variance simulator: http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/
)

Do you have registration code? (because Sales of Slice temporarily suspended......)


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