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$100 6mx AA facing sb shove

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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $150(BB) Replayer
SB ($4,435)
Hero ($3,785)
BTN ($780)

Dealt to Hero A♣ A♦

fold, SB raises to $4,435 (AI), Hero calls $3,635 (AI)

FLOP ($7,570) Q♦ Q♥ 9♦

TURN ($7,570) Q♦ Q♥ 9♦ T♣

RIVER ($7,570) Q♦ Q♥ 9♦ T♣ 2♣

SB shows T♠ 6♠
(Pre 19%, Flop 5.2%, Turn 4.5%)

Villain is an excellent winning reg. BU is a slightly losing rakeback reg. Maybe this is a non-hand, but despite this shove being 'good' from a Nash pov, I can't help feeling it's kinda unecessary.

What do you reckon? Assuming I don't make mistakes and call only with the appropriate TT+ range then he only runs into a hand 2.26% of the time. Hence he can shove ATC here.

But that's only optimal if I'm exploiting his raises by 3b really wide. And why would I given BU has 5bb? Am I being reverse results orientated?

If anyone likes villain's shove, please explain why.
Thanks


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10 replies
ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

I am not fan of these over 20bb open shoves either. Versus good reg its better than folding, but as you said without very aggro dynamics raise-fold will show more profit. With these stacks you might get into some nasty spots where aggro BB will start to do light small 3bets as he can still cause big damage on SB stack and most in SB shoes dont really go for 4bet without solid hand. But then in SB shoes I dont mind to start raise-4betting more if BB get out of line as range he really can induce 4bet is so narrow.


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LOL CALL YOU HAS AA!

:P

yeh i hate villain's play. its unnecessary like you said. its a bad spot for you to get out of line so he should just make it 2.5x and go from there. if the reg BB decides to mess around in this spot i think his SB EV will probably be much higher from playing post-flop and letting the BB spew when he has the top of his range. shipping 4k to win 225. yeh not something im ever doing


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But if you do have aggro resteal dynamics going on, isn't it worth a lot to maintain the CL? In other words, isn't it one of the few options you have in this spot with a hand like T6s? (or any other weakish hand for that matter)

I mean in this stack setup I think it matters a lot to maintain the CL, especially if blinds go up soon?

I agree that risking 4k to win 225 is not a very good risk/reward ratio but what other option do we have in above situation? (obv when BB is 3b shipping)


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Tim64
Joined: 03.11.2008

The easiest way for SB to be sure of maintaining the chip lead is to fold here. He gives me 75 chips but maintains a ~500 chip advantage. I think this is one of those spots where regs tend to outlevel themselves. They think: "I mustn't let my self be exploited".

But I don't think it's in my interests to have an aggro restealing dynamic in this spot. The chiplead isn't all that important here, imo, b/c there are no players to use it against.


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the point is that its a really marginal and very risky play for the BB to reship wide. so you can be relatively confident that hes not going to spew reship 80% of his hands vs your open (even with aggro dynamics).

and like tim said, its ok to fold.


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Anssi
Joined: 03.07.2008

You are ignoring the fact bb can just call sb's normal raise. If sb raises a ton his postflop will be nightmare even if we don't have that much postfop.


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yeh also true.

but jamming 25bbs because you are scared to play post-flop isnt good. just fold


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Anssi
Joined: 03.07.2008

How exactly is folding better than jamming if the spot is still +ev? We can jam 100% here profitably. Even if we are only jamming bottom 50% he can still only call 77+, against which we can profitably shove any2.

You may be right about small raising being better than shoving, but your logic for fold is strange at best.


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i just looked it up, 32o vs nash call is +0.4 i thought it would be much smaller than this.

looks like a big enough EV gain to change my lines from raise/limp > fold > jam to... raise/limp > jam > fold


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I like standard raise>limp>fold>shove.

I think it is much better to fold than risk BB waking up with a hand. The chips he wins stealing here is not going to change how much he will cash for. All SB is doing is giving chances for BB cripple him.


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