NL4 FR Monster draws again

Well played... i wouldn't have played it different.

Hello Phoenix,

We do not have clean outs to our straight & ''pair'' so I either call his minraise & hope that I hit

Or I just fold. I mean if we shove, we just allow him to get it in with a far superior hand, look at the board which is super coordinated

Best regards,
Gerv

Thanks for answering.
Would you advise in this case to not even c-bet then and just take the free card?

Is this even a monster draw? I always thought of a monster draw as being something like K :club:Q on J T x Flop...

And as for the play, I don't see what you're ahead of here that is reraising you on the flop except for a pure bluff. The reason why a shove is bad is that the pure bluff will fold, but all of the hands that have you beat will call.

Just for some ideas about equity you have against his range

50% against Jx for example J5 (but unlikely he's minreraising you with this)
34% against two pair or 99
27% against set (limp/call preflop makes set of 8's very likely holding for him)
20% against Q9
20-55% vs two spades depending on the exact cards
30% vs overpair (unlikely based on preflop action)
55% against underpair (unlikely based on flop action)

As you can see you're just not gonna ever be ahead if he calls.

So, you either flat call and hope to hit, or fold. Minreraise looks weak, but its the type of thing some players will do with the nuts because they want to win maximum but don't want you to fold.

Check this article: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sss/1027/1/
It has all the draws classified very nicely.
As far as equity goes, I'll never be ahead in (almost) any scenario. But if you take into account the money that's already in the pot, I figure I have the odds to go all-in against any pair (even AJ). I don't have the odds to go all-in if he has something more than a pair, or a pair plus a strong draw (which of course is not unlikely considering the board).

Well, as a matter of fact, checking this out more carefully (if we take into account the possibility that he's bluffing or that he has a hand he might fold), after the c-bet I think I do have the odds to go all-in against most of the hands that he could have. So it seems that either I shouldn't c-bet at all or if I do I have to go all-in, is this correct?

Originally posted by Phoenix2104
Well, as a matter of fact, checking this out more carefully (if we take into account the possibility that he's bluffing or that he has a hand he might fold), after the c-bet I think I do have the odds to go all-in against most of the hands that he could have. So it seems that either I shouldn't c-bet at all or if I do I have to go all-in, is this correct?

Not really correct, I'd say its a bad board for a cbet but even worse for a cbet/shove. A shove instead of a cbet is slightly better, but still not great idea IMO.

He's never folding after reraising you, that's the thing, $0.74 to call a pot of $2.40, so you have essentially no fold equity. Which puts it down to actual equity, and its looking like you really only have on average 8 outs, only a pure bluff gives all 14 (9 Q K A) definite outs eg. 9 K A and any Q are all very questionable as to whether they are actually outs, therefore you're usually behind, consequently a shove= -EV.

The chances he's bluffing here are very low, especially as an unknown. A semibluff on the other hand is more likely, but a lot of semibluffs have you beat eg. two spades which is of course calling your shove.

I did an equity calculation using all the hands he could have limped-in/called raise pre-flop/re-raised post-flop with and I found that I have an equity of 45% here.
Hands used were:88, 99, JT+, QK+, J2s-J9s.
Even if you exclude QK+ I still have an equity of 38%.
And that doesn't take into account bluffs, smaller pairs or unsuited Jacks with a lower than Ten kicker.

Originally posted by Phoenix2104
I did an equity calculation using all the hands he could have limped-in/called raise pre-flop/re-raised post-flop with and I found that I have an equity of 45% here.
Hands used were:88, 99, JT+, QK+, J2s-J9s.
Even if you exclude QK+ I still have an equity of 38%.
And that doesn't take into account bluffs, smaller pairs or unsuited Jacks with a lower than Ten kicker.

Both of those numbers are less than 50% though. And again I doubt he's bluffing here, and rarely has an underpair and folding piss all to a shove, so I reckon what you see is what you get with the equity.

And you've left out a lot of hands for the equity calculator eg A9 T9s 98s 97s and when I say suited I don't mean necessarily spades either so multiple combos of these hands which all have more equity than AQo. Then you have any spade suited connectors/gappers and any two spade cards of a decent value. What's your equity after adding in those hands?

I dunno, I just really prefer folding here because you have less than 50% equity pretty much guaranteed if he calls, and very likely no fold equity as well.

I appreciate your argument, I enjoy discussing hands where there are a lot of options to take as I feel this is the best way to improve at poker.

Using every meaningful hand he could have, I find around 38% equity in the worst case. After the c-bet I need 34% equity to be profitable to call. So as I see it either I shouldn't c-bet at all or else I have to go all-in.

Originally posted by Phoenix2104
I did an equity calculation using all the hands he could have limped-in/called raise pre-flop/re-raised post-flop with and I found that I have an equity of 45% here.
Hands used were:88, 99, JT+, QK+, J2s-J9s.
Even if you exclude QK+ I still have an equity of 38%.
And that doesn't take into account bluffs, smaller pairs or unsuited Jacks with a lower than Ten kicker.

Board: J♥T♠8♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    57.38%  55.76%   1.62% { 99-88, AKs, KQs, QJs, J2s+, AKo, KQo, QJo, JTo }
MP3    42.62%  41.00%   1.62% { AcQs }

Board: J♥T♠8♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    63.39%  61.55%   1.84% { 99-88, AKs, QJs, J2s+, AKo, QJo, JTo }
MP3    36.61%  34.77%   1.84% { AcQs }

For reference

I still find it highly doubtable any Jack/x will check/raise on this board. It is superdrawheavy and most players will check/call you there so having 42/36% equity is highly amibitous

I would see his range as follows:

Board: J♥T♠8♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    70.71%  69.18%   1.54% { 88, Q9s, JTs, T8s, 97s, KsQs, AsJs, QsJs, Js9s }
MP3    29.29%  27.75%   1.54% { AcQs }

Since we do not have a monsterdraw but only got check/minraised, calling is possible. Folding is also a very good line to take because our equity is shallow

I think bet/shoving is terrible as illustrated by metza before

Best regards,
Gerv

Thanks for replying everybody.
Just for the sake of completness, I wouldn't imagine either that he could have something like J2s-J7s but I included it in the calculation because that's what he actually had.
I do believe though that, at least where this game was played at, any JQ+ would happily raise at the flop even at a board like this.
Having said that, I take it that against stronger opponents the line proposed is the correct one.
As for the term "Monster draw", I used it because that's how it's classified in the article mentioned above. It may be that the classification isn't correct when we have discounted outs.