TT overcall in STT knockout

Hi!

I'll offer the following analyses as an answer.

The assumptions for the ranges:
MP2 (good reg): 22+, ATo, A2s, KTo, QJo, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s (around nash 20%)
CO (unknown, fishier side, nash is 7.2%, but he is looser): 44, A9o, A8s, KQ
SB: random

Now we plug those ranges into holdemresources nash calculator beta version, and we see that if hero from BB makes the call with TT, he looses -1.82% from the prizepool.

2 bounties add up to 5.56% of the prizepool and thus, if hero makes the call, he has to win 1.82/5.56 *100% of the times to BE (% when winning bounties on average balance out the loss in icm). That is 32.7%.

So hero needs to win the hand 32.7% of the times. We will plug those ranges into equilab and we see, how good TT is vs those:

TT has 33.6% equity vs those ranges.

So seems that TT is a very close call here (range of TT+, AKs qualify). Ofc, if we think that CO is a bit tighter, then its a JJ+ spot in general.

Originally posted by Luupainaja
So seems that TT is a very close call here (range of TT+, AKs qualify). Ofc, if we think that CO is a bit tighter, then its a JJ+ spot in general.

This. ♠_biggrin: