Villain is 24/19 reg. in BB vs steal: call 22% and 3bet 3%.
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Everest
Hero ($445)
BB ($239)
BTN ($199)
Dealt to Hero Q♣ J♣
fold, Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4
FLOP ($12) 4♣ Q♦ 4♦
Hero bets $8, BB raises to $21, Hero calls $13
TURN ($54) 4♣ Q♦ 4♦ 2♥
Hero checks, BB bets $37, Hero calls $37
RIVER ($128) 4♣ Q♦ 4♦ 2♥ K♠
Hero checks, BB bets $175 (AI), Hero ???
Tough one, at least for me.
That river overbet shove is soo suspicious. I rule out Qx here as he is more likely to check/call river or block bet, but not shove like that.
If it is Kx that bluffed but hit, still sizing doesn't make sense IMO as with a King here villain would want to get value from Qx and not fold it out by overbetting.
His 3bet is low so there is a possibility that he could have big pockets but again I don't expect him to take a line which folds out everything that could get him value.
You don't overbet shove when you want value from 2nd pair or worse (because we played the hand exactly like we have Qx or something like 99-JJ) OTR, especially when a scare card hits?
Seems to me that he is trying to generate absolute maximum of fold equity.
I am leaning towards a hero call.
He is in position so can't check/call or blockbet.
I basically went through the same thought process as you. But I think he can have some 4x hands: 54s, 64s, A4s that go for the same line. And in my experience, when people bluff a paired flop, they give up by turn or river. These two arguments made me fold.
Originally posted by lpdlamei
He is in position so can't check/call or blockbet.
Oh, my bad. Late evening effect. :/
I agree, this would really be hard to call in-game. Let's wait for judges. 
imo he has fd/air/KQ+ or 4x/QQ
he call 22% so a fairly wide range and could bluff a lot flop so i would call x3 execpt on a ♦
dynamic is quite important IMO. I think many people check back a rivered King, at the same time it is a card where people would want to fire the third barrel more often than not. This makes me more inclined to call then lets say a 5 on the river.
I don't think many people raise KQ on this flop, unless they are notorious for raising air here and want to balance.
