Know how those shit sessions feel...have just abandoned one myself after getting coolered 3 times within 15 hands or so. sigh!
By my reckoning the hand you are embarrassed about isn't so awful. I think you need around 40% equity to call, and against a rough range you've got 30% so clear fold, but I've seen worse calls! At least you had some outs. That said, calling with green cards is always -EV! 
Sup everyone.
No update for a few days been moving back in at home and getting the poker station set up. Played a fair bit of NL10 the past couple of days and its going pretty well I suppose: feeling more confident and making more moves in the right places. Not long until the end of August and hopefully I'll still hit my target of an NL25 BR. I've been mixing in some MTTs every now and then for a bit of variety which is always fun -- placed third in one the other day for $90 or so which helps out (1K GTD I think).
BR: $499.65
But I'm still running massively under EV in my cash game. In fact, I'm over 10 buy-ins under -- pretty depressing. Will try get some volume in and post a graph at 50K hands: hopefully by then the EV will be closer to the green line.
Edit: here's the graph for 35k hands.
The thing I've been thinking about this week is the dreaded red line (non-showdown winnings). Mine is basically stuck going down at 45 degrees, and it needs to be fixed. I've identified two problems that contribute to this:
(1) Playing hands OOP and going like this: check/call, check/call, check/fold -- even when the river card is a blank! Typical example of this was the hand I first posted, where I have KQs on Qxx or whatever. These kind of top-pairs keep me calling OOP and when the river comes I really never know where I'm at or what villain is barreling, so I end up giving up.
This problem also manifests itself in this form: check/call ("I don't believe he has that hand so I'm ahead here") -- blank turn -- check/fold ("Would he second barrel air? I don't know: I'll just fold"). If I don't think he's got it, and the turn blanks and he bets again, why fold?
People say this: "If you're calling the flop with this hand just to fold on a blank turn, don't call".
But then I think: surely his range gets narrower with the second barrel? So sometimes it makes sense to play this way, even on blank turns? I don't even know. Sorry for rambling.
(2) Calling with hands I should be 3bing or 4bing. A lot of times I think I could be more aggressive with my hands pre-flop and avoid situations where I really don't know where I am with an opponent. Not only does re-raising generate a great deal of fold equity, but it narrows down ranges and saves money in the long run. I need to make more use of this.
Anyway, I'm working on more aggressive play generally across the board.
Good luck all (bring on NL25).
Hey guys.
Quick update for the moment since I don't really have time to make a lengthy post. I've been playing a lot of NL10 and taking shots at NL25; as well as playing the occasional MTT. I actually got lucky and binked a 2k GTD for $566 a few nights ago, which was a great boost for the BR.
It's allowed me to carry on with my shot at NL25 which wasn't going too great but has started to improve now. It isn't much tougher than NL10, just a lot less fish during the day and a lot more 3bet/4betting (esp. in blind battles). The regs seem half decent, and crushed me at first because I was money scared and playing badly in 3b situations; but after a little adaption most seem fairly exploitable and stuck at a particular level. For example:
(a) Many like to 3b light in late positions and esp. blinds; also
(b) Many can 4b light in response to (a); though
(c) Not too many seem to 5b shove light in response to (b), but always fold their hands to shoves.
Also, a lot more of the regs are proper thinking players, which opens up opportunities for bluffing in spots I couldn't at NL10. For example, paired boards and completed flushes are much more likely to affect these regs, so re-raising the river after I've missed floating opportunities but the board is super wet is super profitable. AA is being folded in these situations often.
But of course they are also just a lot better generally, and I still have a lot to learn. One thing I really get in to trouble with is hands like JJ/QQ (esp. the latter). Playing in 3b pots with QQ is always so dangerous, esp. when it comes something like 528 rainbow and the guy leads out, cos I always think (well if he had TT-JJ he'd also do this) and end up donking away money to KK-AA.
---
Anyway, much to learn and hopefully soon there will be a skype group or something. I was thinking maybe some people could get on skype every now and then and talk about a particular topic and have some hands ready etc.? Like how to play 3b pots in position or whatever, and we each have examples and talk about thought process? If anyone is interested, leave a note here or send a message or whatever.
Finally:
BR: $1154.49
So the goal for building a BR for NL25 is done and dusted. In fact, not that far off NL50 ... but I think at least 35BI+ there.
GL at the tables all.
Hi there! ♠_cool: I'm new here, I like your writing style - very short & to the point. hehe
"and binked a 2k GTD for $566 a few nights ago" --- wow! This is great! Congratulations! ♠_thumbsup:
Can I ask: how many tables you play? Which site?
Well ... looks like I forgot this blog existed. Time for an update, perhaps? I'm not sure anyone is going to read it, but here we go.
From now on I probably won't use this to discuss hands as much, but more frequently as a platform for airing ideas about poker in general. The first thing to say is: I'm currently shooting at NL100.
Yup, that's right! The past few months have been pretty hectic, and despite not having much time for poker (new job, new lady) I've been pretty lucky and managed to jump up the limits fairly quickly. My last post (few months back) saw me stuck at NL25 trying to grind off bonuses: I'd be sitting there with 6 tables, fully automatic and barely progressing.
But then, everything changed, and my love for poker was rekindled. How? Two words: Heads up. Seriously, if there are any 6max players here feeling a little disheartened and generally bored with their game: play some HU! It doesn't take long to get the basics (i.e. BU/BB opening ranges) and it will force you in to SO many awkward situations you just HAVE to learn how to hand read properly. Playing every hand lets you into one of the greatest secrets of poker: most of the time, people got jack shit.
And you can tell: it's amazing how we all act so similar in particular situations. It's amazing how many regs (even at NL100) cbet once and are done/believe every river raise/refuse to play OOP -- or whatever! My take on it is: most 6max regs are playing too many tables, and always avoiding situations that are the bread and butter of HU players (c/ring ranges, thin value spots, river merging, whatever).
So I'd recommend learning HU for at least a month or two: it improved my 6max game like nothing else has ever done, and it did so incredibly fast. You can read all the books you want, or watch all the videos you can; but unless you're forcibly placed in uncomfortable situations where you really just have to think through every move you make/will make, you just aint gonna excel at the speeds you really want to. So go play some regs@HU!
But anyway. Back to me. I've made it from NL10-NL100(shots) in the space of like July-Nov or something, and hope to be heading higher as the new year begins. My philosophy is: I play poker to climb the stakes, not to make a steady income. So I'm shooting for the next limit as soon as I hit 25BI (though when eventually I do settle down to grind it out where I'm comfortable, I'll have a much better BRM ofc).
Current BR: $---
Started shooting at 26BI, so going well so far. Loving every second of it. Also still playing MTTs occasionally when I have the time, working with a 80-100BI BRM (depending on my mood). Had several cashes, the biggest so far being around $1k or slightly less (the others all tiny). Great for the bank roll.
Peace guys, will update properly soon and GL at the tableS~!
Edit: not going to post BR anymore -- seems pointless and kinda showy.
Originally posted by gigenieks
Hi there! ♠_cool: I'm new here, I like your writing style - very short & to the point. hehe"and binked a 2k GTD for $566 a few nights ago" --- wow! This is great! Congratulations! ♠_thumbsup:
Can I ask: how many tables you play? Which site?
Also, sorry I never saw this, and thank you.
If you're still around: I play 4 tables MAX (never more, most of the time less) at Parypoker (just moved for tilt less promotion). I really believe that playing more tables just isn't great for learning, and that if you're getting bored playing 2 tables at whatever limit then you're playing for the wrong reasons (you won't progress if you're solely focused on your hourly: you need to love the game, and love the players). Just IMO.
Peace x
Originally posted by ains21
if you're getting bored playing 2 tables at whatever limit then you're playing for the wrong reasons (you won't progress if you're solely focused on your hourly: you need to love the game, and love the players).
really really true 
how is nl100 treating you dude?
Nice one ains,
Sounds like you are winning @LIFE my friend.
I've made it from NL10-NL100(shots) in the space of like July-Nov or something, and hope to be heading higher as the new year begins.
Wow!
Rapid progress. What sort of volume have you managed to put in. I rather hoped to achieve a similarly meteoric rise but have so little time/am not dedicating myself to the grind.
As extension of your HU comments; couldnt agree more. I have recently put 6max cash to one side and have been playing some HU, Rush and Rush MTTs and think I learn a great deal from playing different formats which can all be applied to my 6max game.
All the best,
MD
Originally posted by DrDunne
Originally posted by ains21
if you're getting bored playing 2 tables at whatever limit then you're playing for the wrong reasons (you won't progress if you're solely focused on your hourly: you need to love the game, and love the players).really really true
how is nl100 treating you dude?
Sup Lewis mate, hope you're doing good (I'm always lurking in your blog hah). NL100 is treating me pretty well so far ... in fact for the first 1k hands I was running hugely above EV and everything was looking peachy. I've only had time to play about 2k hands so far and here's the graph:
Just the kind of graph you want when shooting limits right? This is the first time it has gone well straight off the bat and it's a great feeling.
As you can see, the winning and EV line are now gravitating back together, with a little help from hands like this:
As for the players, they aren't that much stronger than NL100. Well, they're more aggressive and think through their decisions a lot more frequently than NL50 regs, but that doesn't make them a lot tougher, IMO. In fact, the more they think the more interesting and exciting our lines can be. I've been raising a ton of flops/turns/rivers just because I know that while I'm still relatively unknown they're going to be folding their made hands when in doubt (esp. those multi-tablers).
I'm playing like a bit of a maniac atm. Most sessions I average something like 30/28. But then I tend to only play 2-3 tables tops so I have a lot of time to think every hand through and put my opponents in difficult positions. It's so great playing the maniac: I'm starting to get called down so light that my monsters are nearly always getting paid. Love it.
Favourite donkey trick when shooting a new limit: 3bing AA and when I get flatted by some reg (who most of the time has some PP in this situation, set-mining and trying to stack me) overbet shoving any low-dry flop (2J4r or something). A few times now I have been called off by something like 88 or TT just because they think I'm donking around with AK:
It's all fun. Just love playing as many hands as I can in the most interesting ways possible.
Wow!
Rapid progress. What sort of volume have you managed to put in. I rather hoped to achieve a similarly meteoric rise but have so little time/am not dedicating myself to the grind.As extension of your HU comments; couldnt agree more. I have recently put 6max cash to one side and have been playing some HU, Rush and Rush MTTs and think I learn a great deal from playing different formats which can all be applied to my 6max game.
All the best,
MD
Hi MD! I haven't really put a whole lot of volume into my CG. Most of this was financed by my MTT scores and my HU games. Playing NL50 HU gave me a decent bit of BR, but several top cashes in MTTs have financed the transition for the most part. MTTs are a great format and at the low stakes so soft that cashing comes kind of often, and I think they teach you a lot about the importance of stack sizes, betting sizing, equity and so on.
Glad you find the same with playing other formats -- poker is just such an amazing game right? I reckon that playing any format will help in the long run with SH. Even if it isn't directly relevant, just learning helps cultivate the kind of mindset that comes in useful at any table. Hope to see you at NL100 soon mate :).
Anyway, always rambling. GL at the tables all and take it easy~!
Hey guys, thought I'd post some updates (in case anyone is interested).
The shot at NL100 is going pretty well so far. Things started out on a definite heater but have cooled down significantly and now running at around 6-7bb/100 after 7k hands (small sample, I know). I'd post a graph and all that, but once again I've come to the conclusion that doing so just isn't good for my game. Let me explain -- maybe it's the same for some of you.
There's something about looking at a graph that hits me hard. The visualisation of my success/non-success strikes me so much harder than the numbers themselves, or the general feeling of 'well things haven't been going THAT well recently...'. When I see how high my winnings went, and then how fast they came back down, with all those fancy coloured lines ... well ... I feel like complete shit. It tilts me more than anything. It gets me feeling down, depressed and angry. And this is terrible for my game.
So, like many other users here, I'm making a pledge to stay away from my graph as much as possible, and instead to spend time using HM for analysis of stats themselves. Who cares about pretty graphs? I just want to be playing NL1000k by next year. The focus should be on having fun and learning every little thing I can. I don't want to grind NL100 for £1k a month ... what a boring life that would be.
[deleted musings .. don't know what that was all about]
Well I think I might actually restart this blog for a little while. I just want somewhere I can work on hands/database that has pretty little 
pictures. So don't really expect many followers or anything.
I'm playing NL100 at the moment, but also good 200 tables. Also playing HU sngs before sessions to get me out of a robotic frame of mind, and to keep my hand reading skills developing. I'm hoping this year to be playing poker for an income and wish to be at least a decent 200 reg by the end (hopefully higher). I will be playing fairly aggro BRM and taking shots at soft tables whenever I have >20 BI for the limit.
Will post soon, peace x
My first task is to figure out the most effective way to analyse my play objectively. I will take this post just to set the general -- and well known -- theme for hand/play analysis. Posts after this will concern the game directly.
As far as I am aware, there are only two key elements to any successful series of decisions when playing poker:
(1) Empirical assumptions
These are the assumptions we make about our opponents range on the basis of our previous experience. In other words, we say to ourselves: what hands have I played like this in the past, and what hands have I seen others play like this in the past? In many cases, we will also use our opponents stats to help us arrive at reasonable conclusions regarding his ranges -- assuming that the opponent is consistent, of course.
We also make assumptions about what we expect our opponent to do when facing certain action ("he'll fold the bottom 10% of his range to a c/r"), and how we think he may interpret our play. Again, this is done so on the basis of experience.
In these cases, then, it is simply volume of play and attention to detail that helps us develop these skills: the more situations we play, the more familiar we become with the habitual practices of opponents, and the more accurately we estimate ranges.
As such, before analysing hands below I will always try to state as clearly as possible the origin of any assumption about our opponents range -- i.e., I will attempt to understand why I put certain hands in opponents range, and will attempt to be critical concerning the reliability of that origin.
(2) +EV decisions
Once we have an estimate of our opponents range, we need to decide on the optimal play given our holdings (or, more importantly, our range). We can look at the combinations of cards making up the hands constituting our opponents range, and compare the advantages of calling/folding/raising (when facing a bet, for example) in terms of their impact on that range as a whole.
This element is the one that requires the most practice and revision: we need to be able to effectively estimate how our opponent will behave in different scenarios with different portions of his range, and determine on this basis which possible play out of all the variations produce the most $.
We need to understand the math, of course, but it is important to realise how heavily we depend on our initial assumptions about our opponents ranges. Deciding on option A over B because it is in the long run only slightly more EV pails in terms of effects of including or missing 16 combos of JQo in our opponents range as a result of poor range analysis.
So it seems to me that I need not get too bogged down in the finest details of EV calculations, but spend as much time as I can learning how to draw quick conclusions from accurate estimates of ranges. For every hand, then, I will in addition to posting the basis of any range assumption, be providing a rough and ready comparison of the various different alternatives available to me at the time of action, along with the appropriate calculations.
This is all, of course, very obvious. Everyone does it all the time in the hand evaluation forums. But I feel like I just wanted to write a kind of skeleton for analysis before starting -- sometimes these things help, I don't know.
1.
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
MP: $231.91 (231.9 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $147.04 (147 bb)
SB: $108.87 (108.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A
8
3 folds, SB raises to $2, Hero calls $1
Flop: ($4) 8 6
K (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3
Turn: ($10) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3
River: ($16) T (2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero raises to $19.50
Opponent is fishy but plays regularly. 26/16 over 224 hands.
UO SB: 67 -- Cbet F/T/R: 70/50/100 -- Fold to 3b: 43 -- WTSD: 28 -- AF: 1.1
Easy defend, no need to 3-bet pre-flop since he doesn't fold often and we keep his range super wide while playing IP. We also expect him to bet Axx boards very often.
Flop betting range: 66+, ATs+, A8s, A6s, K2s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, ATo+, A8o, A6o, K7o+, 98o, 87o
The turn bet sizing to me can still be Kx+. I've seen fish do this with hands like KQ, as well as 62o. I don't think it changes his range too much for this reason, but we can still make two reasonable assumptions:
(a) He checks his no equity hands now
(b) He bets larger with his sets, his straights and his two pairs.
There is now a flush on the board, and even fish are looking to protect in this spot. So we can narrow his range down to the following:
Turn betting range: QQ-99,A8s,A6s,K2s+,T8s,97s+,86s,65s,A8o,A6o,K7o+,87o
We need 19% to call, and have 23% against this conservative range. He does still, in reality, have some random airballs that he bets again with, so we can add some extra +% equity to our hand.
River comes 4 to a straight. Fish often bet small here with their Kx+, but also sometimes still has 9x. His betting range here has us crushed:
River betting range: TT-99,K9s+,97s+,K9o+,87o (67).
Is raising here profitably? We can assume roughly that he will fold many Kx to 4x re-raise on the river, as long as we reputably have 9x in this spot. Can we? 99, 98s, K9, 97s, A9s, 96s would all be in my range at this point.
We risk 20 to win 21, so need to be successful ~>55%.
We estimate that he folds all Kx that are not K9/KT, bet doesn't fold his set/9x.
He calls 36/67 combos, and folds the rest, meaning that he calls 54% of his range.
This means the bluff is techinically not +EV, aslong as we assume that he calls some two pair and TT at river, and that we assume he doesn't bet KJ/KQ on the river. Knowing whether or not these are the right assumptions is difficult with fishy players, as is knowning whether or not he really only bets $5 with 9x.
Moral of the story: estimating ranges for fishes is long and boring, and gut feeling may play a larger role when playing a hand like this.
2.
BB: $108.99 (109 bb)
CO: $245.74 (245.7 bb)
BTN: $214.35 (214.4 bb)
Hero (SB): $105.39 (105.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 5 5
CO folds, BTN raises to $2, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1
Flop: ($6) 2 6 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $4, BB calls $4, BTN folds
Turn: ($14) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $9.50, BB raises to $28, Hero calls $18.50
River: ($70) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $74.99 and is all-in
Don't want to talk pre-flop/flop, just about our c/c range at river.
BU was fish, SB was unknown reg who played 22/18/9.1 over 62 hands and 5+ tables.
Assuming reg knows my range to be fairly low equity here (fd/77-99/6x/33/55), we can estimate the following range for turn raise: 66,44-22,Ah9h,Ah8h,9h8h,Ah7h,8h7h,8c7c,Ah3h,Ac3c,
We assume his only 3x are 33/A3s, since he doesn't often over-call 43s/K3s.
We assume he doesn't RR bare FD vs. unknown, rather only FD+GS or FD+OESD.
We have 48.86 equity on the turn, so of course we call. Shipping seems fairly bad since his combos of 33/A3s/66 > 22/44/Ah7h. Though, he folds fairly often I suppose. Thinking about it, since we're not massively behind his calling range shoving isn't so terribad. The problem is whether we call on the river blank, and we have to think of our perceived range.
I'm going to post it in the HE forum, since mbml is posting a lot about GTO play at the moment and defending the top of our range. I think this may be a fold since if we assume he checks back all sets and only bets missed draws and the nuts, we have only 28.57% equity, and need 34% vs. a shove.
Board: 2♥6♣4♥ 5♠ Q♦
Equity Win Tie
MP2 71.43% 71.43% 0.00% { 33, Ah9h, Ah8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, 8h7h, 8c7c, Ah3h, Ac3c }
MP3 28.57% 28.57% 0.00% { 5d5c }
Will see what mbml thinks.
hey tom
hand1: i don't expect the guy to ever have Kx here and if he does it's a super weak Kx. imo it's more like Qq/JJ/TT/99 and 8x hands. doubt he will bet this sizing on the turn with K7 either so i think you shouldn't include that in his range.
on the river i think you'll have the best hand sometimes and at first i was thinking raising doesnt really do much... i think his range is really really weak for playing like this and i think it's possible you actually have the best hand in which case you get the odds. i dont know if turning your hand into a bluff will really accomplish much. i guess you do make him fold his 99/JJ and QQ, along with weak Kx too so looks like a cool idea.
Donk gon' donk
Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
Hero (UTG): $196.01 (196 bb)
MP: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $195.21 (195.2 bb)
BTN: $216.75 (216.8 bb)
SB: $263.75 (263.8 bb)
BB: $105.30 (105.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6 7
Hero raises to $3, MP folds, CO calls $3, BTN calls $3, SB calls $2.50, BB folds
Flop: ($13) 2 5 3 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, 2 folds, SB calls $9
Turn: ($31) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $24, SB raises to $53, Hero raises to $184.01 and is all-in, SB calls $131.01
River: ($399.02) 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results:
$399.02 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: 2 5 3 4 7
Hero showed 6 7 and won $198.11 ($2.10 net)
SB showed T 6 and won $198.11 ($2.10 net)
Will respond after session Lewis mate ty
3.
SB: $124.87 (124.9 bb)
BB: $100.03 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG): $100 (100 bb)
MP: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
CO: $61.82 (61.8 bb)
BTN: $107.77 (107.8 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A J
Hero raises to $3, MP calls $3, 3 folds, BB calls $2
Flop: ($9.50) A Q 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $6, BB folds, Hero calls $6
Turn: ($21.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $17.50, Hero calls $17.50
River: ($56.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $75 and is all-in
BB was kind of bad 20/14 guy.
MP is reg 27/20/5.0 with: 100% stab vs. missed c-bet flop -- 50% stab vs. missed c-bet turn -- 5.3 AF -- Fold to c-bet flop 75 (279 hands, so limited).
I felt like betting here is probably std but since MP was kind of aggro at the time I felt like the value from letting him stab>his calling range.
Looking at the river where all draws have missed, can we call an over-bet? Our range here is possibly something like: AJ, ATs, A9s, KK, JJ, TT, 99, KQs.
If we expect him to bluff river with some missed FD T9ss/QJss/JTss/98ss/KJss and some missed GS KJs/JTs we have 9 combos of possible bluffs (but he also sometimes turns PP into bluffs, etc).
He has value 66/QQ/AQ, so 12 combos. But does he always shove these on river? I don't know. Let's stick with it.
So his river range is around 22 combos, of which he is bluffing around 45% of the time (seems maybe too optimistic). I feel that in this case, if he does have such a range, we need to be calling off 99/A9s/AJ and folding KK/JJ/TT .. maybe we also call ATs but depends how often we really feel he shoves river as a bluff.
Assumptions that may be incorrect:
He flats JTs/KTs in these positions (though 27/20 suggests he might).
He is capable of barrelling/over-betting missed GS.
4.
Interested in people opinions regarding villain's range in this spot. Hero is perceived to be squeezing fairly wide here (8% std SQ but more in this position) and has a range of something like TT+,AQs+,A5s,98s,ATo+,KJo-KTo.
CO is 14/11/3.4 nitty reg who folds 65% to 3-bets.
Villain is 22/18/4.3 reg who snap calls the SQ. He has 11% 3b BUvsCO (9) and high blind 3b rates, with 75% fold to 3b so far (350 hands). He has 13% flop raise in single raised pots, no real info for 3b pots.
BTN: $117.13 (117.1 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $119.65 (119.7 bb)
UTG: $219.15 (219.2 bb)
MP: $110.53 (110.5 bb)
CO: $136.39 (136.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with X X
2 folds, CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB folds, Hero raises to $13.50, CO folds, BTN calls $10.50
Flop: ($30.50) A 5 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $16, BTN raises to $32
Since he doesn't 3b or jam over the SQ, I take out AK/QQ+.
Since hero is wide here I take out 55 but keep 99.
Value raising range: AQ/99/A5s (at a push).
Do you think he ever raises here as a semi-bluff, calling off with KQhh or something? Seems strange to do since his RRing range has so few value combos ..
What's your calling range/shoving range for this spot?
5.
Hero (SB): $211.96 (106 bb)
BB: $219.43 (109.7 bb)
UTG: $235.53 (117.8 bb)
MP: $42.14 (21.1 bb)
CO: $84.01 (42 bb)
BTN: $214.32 (107.2 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 8
4 folds, Hero raises to $5, BB calls $3
Flop: ($10) 6 A 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $7, BB calls $7
Turn: ($24) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $16.04, Hero calls $16.04
River: ($56.08) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $37.49, Hero raises to $183.92
Villain was kind of unknown at time, but reg playing several tables: 20/17/5.2. Since we have no real sample, stats for flop etc. are not really relevant here. What's his range for betting river? Since hero looks like weaker Ax/PP here often we expect always a bet from any flush, AT/AJ.
Villain river value betting range: 66-55,AJs-ATs,A6s-A5s,87s,65s,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,QcTc,JcTc,Kc9c,Qc9c,Jc9c,Kc8c,Qc8c,Jc8c,Kc7c,Qc7c,Jc7c,AJo-ATo,A6o-A5o (57)
He almost never has 6x here because he bets turn, and we expect him to check back this almost every time (except A6). Hero has many 6x since UO SB raise and bet/ch-c line can be 76-K6. We risk 183.92 to win 93.57, so we need him to fold ~>65% of the time.
If villain folds everything except 5x/6x, he can call only 15 combos, which is 26.3% of his range, meaning he bet/folds his value range 74% of the time. This is assuming the following:
(1) He bet/calls 5x.
(2) He bet/folds flushes.
(3) He doesn't bet the turn with 6x.
(4) Hero can credibly rep 6x on the river.
I think (1) is questionable when hero is unknown, whereas (2) is very likely. (3) is probably the weakest assumption, closely followed by (4). Since Hero is unknown though, we believe villain may initially give credit to such narrow range plays. All in all I think it was +EV, for these reasons.
Edit: Actually, I don't think villain bets river with AT here, which makes it much closer. He does also have some other air combos on the river though (missed GS etc.) since it is BvB.
